Is there any reason for believing Labour won't take out FF, leaving Deenihan and Ferris untouched? The combined '07 12K FF vote will be well short of an 11K quota this time surely (8.5K in Kerry Locals), even with WestLimk? While Lab are on the rise with 9K Local FPs in the new constitncy. The residual FG transfers should clinch it for Lab, no? While there'll be few for FF anywhere.
Any post-Budget views?
No, not really.Originally Posted by Doorstepper
The sad thing about this thread is that there exists a notion that ANY Fianna Fail seat would be considered safe.
Ferris to retain his seat.
Mac polled around 20% last time with his running mate on about 11%. That gives them 31%. He got about 60% of her transfers, so if he was on his own he probably would have polled around 25-26%. Question is, what will he drop? If FF are down 20-25% nationally....
There'll be a number of Dublin constits without an FF TD next Xmas. KN also looks vulnerable to this blow-in from 'the Capital'.
If the national 3/5ths loss applies here, then FF will struggle for 6 or 7K on a new quota of up to 11K. If the FF vote is only halved (21% nationally, 15% here) FF will still be short of Labour's Local results.
Tell this jackeen, kingdomers, is Mac's personal vote strong enough to resist an anti-FF tide?
With most of the candidates declared and all the other factors that have changed since you posted last, how do you see the constituency going now?
Anyone got any opinions on this ?
Try posting in this thread, lots of opinions on the General Election.
There's a lot to be said for the fellow who doesn't say it himself. -- Maurice Switzer
Positivity Rating: 160 (Surplus of Likes Received over Likes Given)
Dennihan will top the poll this baffles me especially as to why anyone in Tralee would vote for him. He has ignored Tralee for so long. The only question at issue is if Ferris or Sring will come 2nd.Deenihan Spring and Ferris will be elected no doubt about that it will interesting to see whos elected second. Cant see the independents having any major impact. Kerry North/West Limerick will be one of the more boring battles in the election. Why 2 of the 3 TDS who have allowed North Kerry to be ignored will be elected again is a mystery.
The Newstalk consituecny review and a few other sources talk of the outside chance of FG taking two seats here. With the large West Limerick vote and the potential of a large Jimmy Deenihan surplus, would John Sheahan be a candidate for an outside bet ?
LinkBack URL
About LinkBacks
Reply With Quote