NAMA - motive for overpaying (not a debate on NAMA)

[toughbutfair]

This thread is not a debate on NAMA as there are loads of those. This is SOLELY for the people who think we will overpay for the assets. My question is why would the government do so ? here are some options

(1) They are corrupt and just want to bail out their friends/backers
(2) The will honestly believe the price is right but are misjudging it
(3) They are getting bad advice
(4) They believe the "top guys" need to be taken care of to better the overall economy i.e. a top down Reagon approach.
(5)They feel we need to re-ignite a property bubble with a false floor to improve the economy and tax revenue
(6) Other reason

Please stick to the narrow terms of reference of this thread.

[meatshirt]

They will overpay so that the banks have enough money to remain solvent. Why they feel the current banking system is so important is another issue.

[Dreaded_Estate]

I'm actually starting to believe it is just 2)

The greatest error of judgment in the NAMA process. Is that we are at the bottom of the market and won't fall any further.

[ballot stuffer]

It would be politically very convenient to lean towards overpaying as the NAMA process will take years to finish until the true value is established. By which time the players could wash their hands of it or blame someone else.

It would avoid to having to do another short term recapitalisation which will be politically damaging after the assests have been sold to NAMA.

There is much temptation for the government to long finger this by overpaying.

[HarshBuzz]

This thread is not a debate on NAMA as there are loads of those. This is SOLELY for the people who think we will overpay for the assets. My question is why would the government do so ? here are some options

(1) They are corrupt and just want to bail out their friends/backers
(2) The will honestly believe the price is right but are misjudging it
(3) They are getting bad advice
(4) They believe the "top guys" need to be taken care of to better the overall economy i.e. a top down Reagon approach.
(5)They feel we need to re-ignite a property bubble with a false floor to improve the economy and tax revenue
(6) Other reason

Please stick to the narrow terms of reference of this thread.

1, 3 and 5 for me

economic illiteracy ('ah shure, it'll all be grand if we can just get property moving again') combined with Irish-style gombeen corruption

[seabhcan]

They are trying to support the banks share price because they are worried that middle class pension funds will be hit if they nationalise or part nationalise.

[Watcher1]

It could well be a number of the reasons you highlighted. I think they also know they will not be re-elected and now see this as one of their last chances to help their buddies.

[Nipper]

No1, the rest are just excuses to distract from No1.

[HarshBuzz]

They are trying to support the banks share price because they are worried that middle class pension funds will be hit if they nationalise or part nationalise.

for fluck's sake, if they really do believe this, they are complete and utter morons

pension funds are highly diversified, even the most Irish-focussed of them would typically have less than 15% of the fund invested in Irish assets. Granted, a large % of that may have been in Irish bank shares but that money has largely alreayd been lost (shares are down ~85% from peak and Anglo has evaporated).

this is just a soundbite that they throw out there for people who don't understand finance - 'ah shure we have to protect the poor aul' pensioners'

Jesus wept

[Propforward]

(1) They are corrupt and just want to bail out their friends/backers
(2) The will honestly believe the price is right but are misjudging it
(3) They are getting bad advice
(4) They believe the "top guys" need to be taken care of to better the overall economy i.e. a top down Reagon approach.
(5)They feel we need to re-ignite a property bubble with a false floor to improve the economy and tax revenue
(6) Other reason

NAMA will over pay because it will not pay market price - the said aim of NAMA is to pay a price that reflects the long term value of the asset.
So 2 is not true.

I think 3,4,5 are all in the mix for why.
they are getting bad advice from vested interests (ECB, Bank industry experts, pet economists)
They do seem to believe in preserving the captains of industry - and while this is not a bad concept in most cases for Ireland all our top guys are either builders, bankers or gamblers.
They stacked every econmic egg into the property bubble and with NAMA they seem to be still saying "It's the economy - stupid" but their only trick in economics is property boom - which relies on huge confidence on behalf of the market which will take decades to return.

But the gut feeling having watched events unfold is that there is a bit of 1 in all this - i mean they seem hellbent on NAMA and will not listen to the expert evidence that is against it.