Brian Lenihan to appear before Oireachtais Finance committee at 2pm. 31/08/09

[powderfinger]

Nama will engage in massive outsourcing according to Mr.Lenihan.

[droghedasouth]

Mulcahy came over ok until he took out his chartist analysysis that Irish property (from memory) typically increasess about 88% from trough about 7 years after a crash.

1. This is not a normal cyclical property crash - this is out there with the Dutch tulip bulbs.

2. Even if it did recover that much, applying a commercial discount rate (say 10%) to a value in 7 years time would just get you back to the trough value as its Net Present Value.

[Digout]

Nama will engage in massive outsourcing according to Mr.Lenihan.

It will, to FF friendly companies.

[Dios]

Irish property (from memory) typically increasess about 88% from trough about 7 years after a crash.

What, did we have a property boom before?

[He3]

interesting. i guess they are terrified of a domino effect as investors flee from the Euro if that did happen.

for 4 million people, we sure do punch above our weight economically.

and i'm no "yes" campaigner.

the yes folks do have a point in that regard.

How would a second Lisbon No vote make any difference to the present arrangements?

And if it would not make any difference, why do you think the Yes campaign has a point on this?

[toughbutfair]

Mulcahy came over ok until he took out his chartist analysysis that Irish property (from memory) typically increasess about 88% from trough about 7 years after a crash.

1. This is not a normal cyclical property crash - this is out there with the Dutch tulip bulbs.

2. Even if it did recover that much, applying a commercial discount rate (say 10%) to a value in 7 years time would just get you back to the trough value as its Net Present Value.

Disagree. The 10% discount rate is way too high, I doubt any investments ever use such a high one, usually some interest rate is used.

Also - Ireland has had such crashes before. I read last week that a house in mountjoy in 1790s cost 8,000 pounds but by late 1840s it was just 500 pounds (had been sliding big time before the famine too). It is NOT the tulip as tulips have no use, a house/apt is a place to live.

[FakeViking]

How would a second Lisbon No vote make any difference to the present arrangements?

And if it would not make any difference, why do you think the Yes campaign has a point on this?

Spot on. Another No vote means no change, no expulsion from Europe. Most Yes campaigning is attempted scare mongering. Vote No, say good riddance to Clowen, Lenny & Coughlan.

[FakeViking]

Disagree. The 10% discount rate is way too high, I doubt any investments ever use such a high one, usually some interest rate is used.

Also - Ireland has had such crashes before. I read last week that a house in mountjoy in 1790s cost 8,000 pounds but by late 1840s it was just 500 pounds (had been sliding big time before the famine too). It is NOT the tulip as tulips have no use, a house/apt is a place to live.

When is the last time you visited Leitrim? The place must be the 'For Sale' capital of Europe.

[Digout]

When is the last time you visited Leitrim? The place must be the 'For Sale' capital of Europe.

I thought Longford was the capital ?

[droghedasouth]

Disagree. The 10% discount rate is way too high, I doubt any investments ever use such a high one, usually some interest rate is used.

Also - Ireland has had such crashes before. I read last week that a house in mountjoy in 1790s cost 8,000 pounds but by late 1840s it was just 500 pounds (had been sliding big time before the famine too). It is NOT the tulip as tulips have no use, a house/apt is a place to live.

In the real commercial world, 10% is quite a low discount rate.

Lets hope that the crash is not as bad as the pots-Act of Union crash on Mountjoy Square. I suspect that the result was much different in Merrion and Fitzwilliam Square. But at least in Dublin there was some demand for housing and the Mountjoy Square / North Great Georges St. properties became tenaments.

But have you never heard of the villages abandoned after the famine.
This is the biggest calamity to hit the country since at least the civil war and arguably since the famine.
There are 1500 unsold houses in Longford.
Some of them will never be lived in.