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Thread: NAMA Discount

  1. #21
    He3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dios
    The politicians are on holiday and hal's away for the weekend, I'm starting to see a pattern emerging here.
    It is a European thing Dios. Best practice they call it apparently.

    http://www.politics.ie/foreign-affai...ml#post1926096

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by He3 View Post
    It is a European thing Dios. Best practice they call it apparently.

    http://www.politics.ie/foreign-affai...ml#post1926096
    How do these people look themselves in the mirror.

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  3. #23
    He3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dios View Post
    How do these people look themselves in the mirror.
    They pay other people to do that for them too Dios.

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hal View Post
    With NAMA all things being equal there is no risk to the taxpayer, but as it is not possible to foretell the future you have to accept there are risks in anything you would do. I would have thought that was understood

    If you can find any plan that doesn't contain some element of assumption and therefore some element of risk, I'd say go with it. But I can guarantee you will be looking for a very long time.


    I'm away for the weekend now, enjoy yourselves.
    By most reasonable measures our banks are insolvent. NAMA will have to overpay for these assets to maintain their solvency. What's the upside for the state? In ten years time the equity in these banks may well worth tens of billions. A good situation for shareholders and for the bondholders. What cut of this will the taxpayer get? All we have so far is an uncertain promise that a levy *might* be imposed at some future point.

    I believe the best situation for the taxpayers would be if we could just nationalize the banks, wipe out some of the bondholders, and then pay the hard cash needed to recapitalize the banks. The problem is though that we would have to directly raise the cash needed for recapitalization. We couldn't do this using ECB funny money swaps. The situation resembles a person going to buy a new car under a hire purchase agreement! There's easy financing available at the moment via government bond swaps with the ECB. The problem is that like most hire purchase agreements we'll pay way over the odds in the longer term than if we could come up with the hard cash now. It strikes me that buying Irish bank shares right now could be a rather risky but potentially very profitable move over the longer term. But this will be entirely at the expense of the taxpayer.

    There must be a mechanism for taxpayers benefiting from most (if not all) of any rise in bank equity values. If not a levy, perhaps something more creative like giving bank shareholders or bondholders a stake in NAMA in return for their investments might be possible.

  5. #25
    Politics.ie Regular BodyofEvidence's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Finbar10 View Post
    By most reasonable measures our banks are insolvent. NAMA will have to overpay for these assets to maintain their solvency. What's the upside for the state? In ten years time the equity in these banks may well worth tens of billions. A good situation for shareholders and for the bondholders. What cut of this will the taxpayer get? All we have so far is an uncertain promise that a levy *might* be imposed at some future point.

    I believe the best situation for the taxpayers would be if we could just nationalize the banks, wipe out some of the bondholders, and then pay the hard cash needed to recapitalize the banks. The problem is though that we would have to directly raise the cash needed for recapitalization. We couldn't do this using ECB funny money swaps. The situation resembles a person going to buy a new car under a hire purchase agreement! There's easy financing available at the moment via government bond swaps with the ECB. The problem is that like most hire purchase agreements we'll pay way over the odds in the longer term than if we could come up with the hard cash now. It strikes me that buying Irish bank shares right now could be a rather risky but potentially very profitable move over the longer term. But this will be entirely at the expense of the taxpayer.

    There must be a mechanism for taxpayers benefiting from most (if not all) of any rise in bank equity values. If not a levy, perhaps something more creative like giving bank shareholders or bondholders a stake in NAMA in return for their investments might be possible.
    debt to equity swaps or issue state bonds backed by the banks to raise funds

  6. #26
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    A question ; When the banks take the government’s bonds( Nama are giving the banks for the development lands) to Europe to cash them in- will Europe cash them and if so at what cost to us?

    or have i got it all wrong?

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    How many households are there in Ireland, around a million? With sixty billion being handed to NAMA, presumably, would it be a worthy use of time to send a plausible looking mailshot containing a legal demand for sixty thousand euros to each household, plus interest payments?

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  8. #28
    Politics.ie Regular BodyofEvidence's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bean View Post
    A question ; When the banks take the government’s bonds( Nama are giving the banks for the development lands) to Europe to cash them in- will Europe cash them and if so at what cost to us?

    or have i got it all wrong?
    yes, the ECB will cash them at face value. The cost to us will be the difference between the income stream on NAMA assets (2% on a good day) and the cost of the bonds (6% +) times the amount issued : say 65b. thats 4% * €65,000,000,000 or €2.6b pa. ....ENJOY!!

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hal View Post
    The levy is not part of the legislation, it doesn't need to be. Any Government can impose a levy on any section at any time for any reason.
    Really that won't wash. Unless its built in, there's no guarantee of it happening.

    And of course the best way of making sure it happens is nationalisation of the banks, as was done in Sweden, so that both up and downside are in public ownership.

    The whole issue of pricing would be resolved by temporary or permanent nationalisation.

    Lenihan and Bacon have lied about nationalisation. They are protecting bondholders and shareholders at the expense of the rest of the population.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by BodyofEvidence View Post
    yes, the ECB will cash them at face value. The cost to us will be the difference between the income stream on NAMA assets (2% on a good day) and the cost of the bonds (6% +) times the amount issued : say 65b. thats 4% * €65,000,000,000 or €2.6b pa. ....ENJOY!!
    Thanks BodyofEvidence! I'll be dust before we see the light at the end of this particular tunnel.
    -Is Nama anti competitive - it fundamentally is a control of the marketplace? The drip feed of property for development and sale? if so does Europe or anyone care?

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