Swine flu: the final nail for Ireland's economy?

[Oblivion]

By many accounts, Ireland is now in an economic depression. It's only fitting then, according to Murphy's Law, that at this critical moment another crisis should come along and threaten to kick us when we're down.

And kick us hard in the teeth.

A near-apocalyptic report released today by Oxford Economics, claims that the impending swine flu pandemic could cost Britain £60 billion, derail any fledgling recovery and "prolong the recession by two years". The Guardian, July 17th: "The thinktank predicted that a severe pandemic could cut gross domestic product by 5%, with the economy shrinking by about 7.5% next year and enduring 1% deflation throughout 2010-12...."This could generate a vicious cycle that postpones the recovery for another couple of years....small businesses are going to be very badly hit. They are not necessarily going to be able to cope."

Horrific stuff. Human tragedy aside; in cold-hearted economic terms, the swine flu is going to be truly savage. And that's assuming it doesn't mutate into something worse.

Now we're being warned that one million Irish citizens could become infected this autumn and winter.

Irish Health.com, July 15th:

"The swine flu is a new virus to which most people have little or no immunity and could therefore cause more infections than are seen with the seasonal flu, the department’s chief medical officer, Dr Tony Holohan, warned in the letter. Studies of previous pandemics suggest a much larger wave of infection with more illness and death in the autumn or winter of this year, the letter said. The letter also pointed out that it is possible that the virus could increase its virulence, possibly as a result of interaction with avian influenza virus. Furthermore, when schools return in the autumn conditions for transmission will be more favourable."

With Ireland's GDP already set to crash by a double-digit figure over the next 18-24 months, the swine flu may yet mutate an economic disaster into a more of a national calamity. The good news is that 7.7 million vaccinations have been ordered for Ireland. It is hoped that they will arrive in the autumn. But a great deal can happen between now and then.

[X-ray]

But we have Harney and the HSE and empty AEs and ICUs all over the country waiting to deal with this. Staff are highly motivated and resepcted by the population.

So we should be fine.

We also have a large army and reserve to call in if things get worse.

[slx]

The only thing about Swine Flu is that thankfully it's not something that the Fianna Fail administration can manage to give everyone, unless they pick it up themselves and decide to go out on a national campaign of sneezing on the electorate.

It's going to impact upon every country in the world.

[Oblivion]

But we have Harney and the HSE and empty AEs and ICUs all over the country waiting to deal with this. Staff are highly motivated and resepcted by the population.

So we should be fine.

Yes, and the vast majority of people who catch the virus will make a full recovery ( less than 0.5% will die ). But even so, the economic damage will be very significant; masses of people off work ( not necessarily ill, maybe looking after sick kids etc ) fewer people in shops, bars, restaurants, cinemas. Already-cash strapped airlines taking a hammering...

Remember, the hideous predictions above, regarding Britain's economy, assume a scenario in which the pandemic is over in 6 months.

In other words, even a speedy recovery cannot avoid serious damage to the economy. A longer-lasting pandemic would be utterly dire.

[libertarian-right]

Stock up on tinned food and prepare to lock yourself in your house for 6 months for it to clear

[Conor]

Horrific stuff. Human tragedy aside; in cold-hearted economic terms, the swine flu is going to be truly savage. And that's assuming it doesn't mutate into something worse.

Now we're being warned that one million Irish citizens could become infected this autumn and winter.

In cold-hearted economic terms, the mortality rate is likely to be highest among the groups that cost most and produce least - the very young and the very old.

[Oblivion]

Stock up on tinned food and prepare to lock yourself in your house for 6 months for it to clear

What? And miss the referendum? The Lisbon Scammers would never forgive us.

[Middleaged]

I have to say, I am worried about this, when it first surfaced it was last spring, and nobody really gave a shyte, now we are 8 weeks away from "flu/cold time" mid Sept to October,children will be back to school.

If it does strike as predicted this economy will implode, it won't be the Green Shoots we'll be referring to but it'll be the Green Snots....

I really think that this is a bigger threat than economics at the moment.

[X-ray]

That is not the case, older people are largely immune to it. It is young adults that are dying from this disease. A collapse in the health service will be almost total in the winter if a vaccine is not available for staff.
The 0.5% mortality figure is meaningless as the second wave has not hit. It is only ever in the second wave in the winter that more pathogenic strains emerge. We might be lucky or it might be very very bad. Even as is it will kill a few thousand and cause huge financial damage. If its like the spanish flu, you have never seen the like before, in many ways society will cope worse now than they did then.

[Oblivion]

In cold-hearted economic terms, the mortality rate is likely to be highest among the groups that cost most and produce least - the very young and the very old.

True ( although, in London for example, a healthy 19-year-old died a couple of days back ) but the real disruption won't be caused by deaths, it'll be caused by absent employees, consumers tucked-up at home on a Saturday, empty cinemas etc.