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Thread: Exchequer deficit of almost 15 billion in first half of 2009

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    Politics.ie Founder David Cochrane's Avatar
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    Exchequer deficit of almost 15 billion in first half of 2009

    An Exchequer deficit of €14,709 million was recorded in the six months to end-June 2009 compared to a deficit of €5,648 million in the same period last year. Tax revenue was €188 million or 1.2% below expectations for the period and was down by 17.3% year-on-year. Total net voted expenditure was €530 million or 2.3% less than planned for and 0.9% above expenditure levels for the same period last year.

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    Politics.ie Regular seabhcan's Avatar
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    Tax 17.3% down, expenses 2.3% up.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dickens
    Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

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    Not too much sign of expenditure being under control. Fair enough expect SFA to be increasing but what excuse has any other dept? D/aff up 37% for example..

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    Quote Originally Posted by seabhcan View Post
    Tax 17.3% down, expenses 2.3% up.
    Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
    As anyone who has ever run a corner shop would know, but alas, not those who run countries.

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    jpc
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    So when are the brakes going to be applied?
    For real.
    Given there is no room for complacency going forward as the big oaf from Offaly is wont to say.
    Last edited by jpc; 2nd July 2009 at 04:25 PM.
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    Politics.ie Regular seabhcan's Avatar
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    I think the only solution is if we catch some Japanese tourists smuggling bonds.

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    Politics.ie Regular droghedasouth's Avatar
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    Figures laregly as predicted by finance at the end of April.
    At least now we sort-of know the scale of the catastrophe.
    Now we only need to cut/taxabout 4+4+4 billion in successive years.
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    The year on year decline in tax revenue has fallen from 24% in April to 21% in May and now 17%, tax revenue was actually up 13.7% on June last year (2.28bn v 2.0bn) so it appears the first phase of action taken to stabilise the public finances is working. Though as has been pointed out €4bn in mostly expenditure related measures will be needed in December's budget to maintain the trend.

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    myk
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    Quote Originally Posted by CorkHurler View Post
    The year on year decline in tax revenue has fallen from 24% in April to 21% in May and now 17%, tax revenue was actually up 13.7% on June last year (2.28bn v 2.0bn) so it appears the first phase of action taken to stabilise the public finances is working. Though as has been pointed out €4bn in mostly expenditure related measures will be needed in December's budget to maintain the trend.
    The October 2008 budget introduced a new corporation tax payment date in June 2009, whereas there wasn't such a payment date in June 2008 (for companies with 31 December year ends). I'm pretty sure that this change is largely responsible for this overall increase in tax revenue. Such a manouvre only brings tax payments forward, it does not increase the actual tax take, so expect to see a corresponding decrease in corporation tax collected in November 2009.

    My main concern is that for the first six months in 2009; tax revenues have fallen sharply, public expenditure is still increasing and Brian Lenihan is claiming these figures as a vindication of his measures. If this is the government's plan succeeding, then I think we need a different plan!

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    Quote Originally Posted by CorkHurler View Post
    The year on year decline in tax revenue has fallen from 24% in April to 21% in May and now 17%, tax revenue was actually up 13.7% on June last year (2.28bn v 2.0bn) so it appears the first phase of action taken to stabilise the public finances is working. Though as has been pointed out €4bn in mostly expenditure related measures will be needed in December's budget to maintain the trend.
    Have you stopped spinning yet? Take a seat, you must be really dizzy.

    Have you asked why the tax revenue deficit percentage has eased in the last 2 months? Why of course the answer is the doubling of the income and health levies as well as the €10 departure tax coming into excise duties etc.

    And why was the June revenue up on last year? The income and health levies are a big element of it but also is the fact the payment of Corporation Tax has been brought forward, that will unwind in October's figures. This is despite the fact that the June returns were over €200million LESS than they budgeted for in the May revised estimates. Only a month into the revised estimates and they are already €200million out!!

    Exchequer Statement for the period ended 30 June 2009 - Department of Finance - Government of Ireland

    On these figures I reckon taxes will come in circa €2billion less than their May revised estimates of €34.4billion, at around €32.5billion.

    The fact they were some €200million, or more than 8%, below expectations in June will send shivers through the Dept of Finance.
    Last edited by kerrynorth; 2nd July 2009 at 05:23 PM.

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