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  1. #1871
    SamsonS SamsonS is offline

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    NTMA cancels

    A further 500m of the FRN's cancelled today. That brings it to 9b in total and 3.5b this year.
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  2. #1872
    SamsonS SamsonS is offline

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    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/...150m-1.3294898

    Couple of points from this - while the party in question is quite small, there attitude is influenced by what they see as our attitude to corp tax.

    From previous articles, we want to repay the IMF , Denmark and Sweden, but that means not paying UK, EFSF and EFSM, as its of no benefit to us (UK) and we don't have the money (EFSF and EFSM), but we still need everyone's agreement to do this - the same applied back in 2014 or so when we repaid the IMF early.
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  3. #1873
    SamsonS SamsonS is offline

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    Early loan repayment puts Ireland in stronger financial position for the future – Donohoe

    So, the ok has been got to repay IMF/Seden and Denmark. Reduces a bit the 2019 and 2020 cliff years. Estimated saving of about 150m in interest repayments.

    "Ireland’s outstanding programme related IMF debt (circa €4.5bn), and the bilateral loans from both Sweden, (€0.6bn), and Denmark, (€0.4bn), a total of circa €5.5bn has the potential to generate considerable interest savings and further improve Ireland’s debt sustainability, provide liquidity benefits and increase the ECB’s purchase capacity for Irish government bonds in its quantitative easing programme."

    We will still have the bilateral loan to UK, 4B or so, which won't be paid til 2021.

    I guess we can say that this is where the AIB money went!
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  4. #1874
    hammer hammer is offline
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    Very efficient by HBAP.

    €150m saving.

    Excellent start to the day
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  5. #1875
    SamsonS SamsonS is offline

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    NTMA funding statement for 2018, will raise between 14b and 18b.

    They fund roughly 12 months ahead so 2018 is already funded - at end Nov they had 19b in cash, 5.5b wil go on the IMF/Bilateral, and probably another 5oom on the FRN.

    In 2018, in October we have a 9b bond redemption.

    The money raised in 2018, the 14-18b, plus money carried into 2018, will be for the 2019 bond redemptions of 13.5b, plus about 4b of FRN cancellation.

    2018 is year 2 of the 3 year funding cliff - 40b of 127b of bonds/FRNs mature in 2018-2020 . By comparison , the 3 years after that is 17b in total).

    As the budget is broadly in balance, one difference between this and previous years is that there will be minimal Exchequer Borrowing Requirement.
    At end of Nov National Debt at 182.5b.

    Debt Profile | National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA)
    Maturity Profile | National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA)
    NTMA Funding Statement for 2018 | National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA)
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  6. #1876
    Fractional Reserve Fractional Reserve is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by SamsonS View Post
    NTMA funding statement for 2018, will raise between 14b and 18b.

    They fund roughly 12 months ahead so 2018 is already funded - at end Nov they had 19b in cash, 5.5b wil go on the IMF/Bilateral, and probably another 5oom on the FRN.

    In 2018, in October we have a 9b bond redemption.

    The money raised in 2018, the 14-18b, plus money carried into 2018, will be for the 2019 bond redemptions of 13.5b, plus about 4b of FRN cancellation.

    2018 is year 2 of the 3 year funding cliff - 40b of 127b of bonds/FRNs mature in 2018-2020 . By comparison , the 3 years after that is 17b in total).

    As the budget is broadly in balance, one difference between this and previous years is that there will be minimal Exchequer Borrowing Requirement.
    At end of Nov National Debt at 182.5b.

    Debt Profile | National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA)
    Maturity Profile | National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA)
    NTMA Funding Statement for 2018 | National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA)
    so what you are saying is they are borrowing one year to pay off the redemptions the next years so really the debt is the same and they are paying nofink back
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  7. #1877
    SamsonS SamsonS is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fractional Reserve View Post
    so what you are saying is they are borrowing one year to pay off the redemptions the next years so really the debt is the same and they are paying nofink back
    No, if you want to take it in simple terms, once we are running a deficit the debt increases.

    What has been happening is that we are switching expensive debt for cheaper debt. meaning that the cost of servicing that debt is cheaper in actual terms. Whats more, as the economy and gov finance improve, it is taking a lower % of our tax to service the interest.

    The bonds we redeem in 2018/19/20 all are at rates from 4.4% to 5.9%. They will be replaced at rates lower than that.
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  8. #1878
    gerhard dengler gerhard dengler is offline
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    The European Central Bank’s massive stimulus scheme has lowered 10-year government bond yields in the euro zone by between 50-150 basis points, with the largest impact seen in Ireland and Portugal, ratings agency Moody’s said in a report on Thursday
    https://www.reuters.com/article/euro...-idUSL8N1O72RA

    Lowering of 50-150 basis (yield) points is huge, given the size of Irish government (public) debt.
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  9. #1879
    SamsonS SamsonS is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by SamsonS View Post
    NTMA cancels

    A further 500m of the FRN's cancelled today. That brings it to 9b in total and 3.5b this year.
    Same again yesterday
    NTMA cancels

    So that is now 9.5b in total and 4b this year.

    Based on the trend over the last few years, it could be 5b next year (4b,3b,2b in 17,16,15).

    They also have a T-bill auction today , 500m for 12 months at a yield of -.52%.
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  10. #1880
    SamsonS SamsonS is offline

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    All that's left to do for 2017 now would be the repayment of the IMF, Denmark and Sweden, that cold be today or tomorrow. I assume Leo brought the cheque book with him to the council meeting. !
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