Discuss predictions on the future of Ireland

[libertarian-right]

It is time to discuss what poster's views and predictions on the state of Ireland's economy and what the future holds.

1. The deficit. Standing this year at 29 billion (thanks to the 4billion put into Anglo), I see FF's solution as not quick enough to bridge the gap. They talk of 5 billion this year, 4 billion next year, 3 billion after that. With revenue decreasing and unemployment still on the rise, the gap continues to widen. I begin to wonder whether FF will survive after this budget. We shall wait and see.

One thing is certain, we cannot keep issuing bonds forever unless we want to repay the interest on the national debt for decades. This would lead to either default or the IMF.

2. The bank situation. Will NAMA be put in place? Will NAMA breakeven as Harney said or will it be another disaster for the taxpayer? How much will this cost alongside trying to curb our deficit? Our poor international reputation.

3. Property market and predictions of it bottoming out. The Irish love abit of property talk. With so many factors put into account it is hard to see prices "bottoming out" in the next 5 years+.

Discuss these 3 and what could lie ahead in the next few years for Ireland. All indications lead us to a pretty grim future, is this the reality?

[youngdan]

The prediction is the same, Ireland will default and the welfare state as presently known will be gone.

And that is even WITHOUT the nama related costs

[libertarian-right]

The prediction is the same, Ireland will default and the welfare state as presently known will be gone.

And that is even WITHOUT the nama related costs

For this scenario I have already moved my money out the banks. I can see us issue enough bonds this year for the 25billion gap, but next year? Not only will all these bonds depress the situation further, it enslaves us to service this debt. The budget coming up, FF will see around 4-5 billion of silly cuts and tax increases applied. People thought 2009 was bad, 2010 will prove to be the worst year.

[oscartango]

We're fecked - but sure, with the global warming the weather will be grand.

[drbob1972]

It is time to discuss what poster's views and predictions on the state of Ireland's economy and what the future holds.
<snip> I begin to wonder whether FF will survive after this budget. We shall wait and see.

<snip>

FF don't want to survive, they want out and to let FG and others clean up the mess whilst they recover and snipe from the opposition benches, on the assumption that once the heavy lifting is done and there are sign's of recovery they can fool the electorate again and regain power in 2015 or there abouts......

the only exceptions being Cowen and a few others who know that when this government falls they go with it....

[goosebump]

1. Deficit

The people whinging on Liveline today about having to pay a €200 levy for their mobile home ("Its a tax on children, Joe") should give posters some indication where we are going with the deficit.

I think its inevitable at this stage that we will have to borrow from the IMF, regardless of who is in Government. Only by blaming someone else will we be able to make the necessary cuts, and the sooner the better

2. NAMA

No problems with this, as he doesn't involve an immediate hit on the Exchequer. Confident that we'll break even over 10-15 year timeframe.

3. Property

I expect the average house price in Ireland to fall to about €140k over the next 2-3 years, but activity will return

[flavirostris]

I think its inevitable at this stage that we will have to borrow from the IMF, regardless of who is in Government. Only by blaming someone else will we be able to make the necessary cuts, and the sooner the better

wonderful, give up our financial independance so that FF can hide behind the IMF and not have to make unpopular decisions.
Any chance they could put the country first for a change instead of themselves..

[sauntersplash]

"Its a tax on children, Joe"

[Oblivion]

Prediction: nudging 20% unemployment within 3 years.

[goosebump]

wonderful, give up our financial independance so that FF can hide behind the IMF and not have to make unpopular decisions.

We haven't much independence left in the tank as it is. We're paying for everything with other people's money.

Any chance they could put the country first for a change instead of themselves..

Well, if the public at large aren't going to put the country first, what hope have the Government?