Given its serious internal imbalances, Ireland was especially vulnerable to the recent global shocks. Overextension in construction and financial intermediation, along with loss of international competitiveness, has meant that the impact will be sizeable. Cumulatively, GDP is projected to contract by 13˝ percent through 2010, the largest among advanced economies.
Thereafter, as the present dislocations gradually correct themselves, only a modestly-paced recovery is foreseen. The incipient decline in wages will need to be sustained to help redress
Ireland’s cost disadvantage.
Rapid progress on bank restructuring is critical to reestablishing a healthy financial sector. With banks facing liquidity pressures and sizeable losses, the authorities have taken important steps to stabilize the financial system—through the blanket guarantee to depositors and creditors and the recapitalization of banks. ECB credit lines have provided valuable
liquidity. The proposed National Asset Management Agency is potentially the right mechanism to separate the good from the bad assets. Its success requires a comprehensive and realistic assessment of impaired assets. The authorities’ efforts to press ahead with supportive regulatory and supervisory measures will help manage the current stress and lower
the risk of future crises.
Fiscal consolidation has begun—and requires a sustained effort. The authorities’ sense of urgency is welcome. Such, however, has been the collapse of revenues that the 2009 deficit could reach 12 percent of GDP. The authorities recognize that the execution of their ambitious consolidation plan will require a continuing commitment to address sensitive expenditures, including the public wage bill and the scope of social welfare programs. The
consolidation will be more credible the more tightly it is tied to monitorable goals.