Q1 Quarterly National Household Survey

[kerrynorth]

It is out tomorrow. The QNHS is the measure of unemployment. The Q4 2008 survey projected an unemployment rate of 7.7% with 170k classified as unemployed from a workforce of 2.222million. But the Q4 figure only indicated a 10k rise in unemployment from Q3, from 160k to 170k. Needless to say tomorrow's figure will much bigger.

There is also a changeover in the conduct of the QNHS that could disrupt the figures. Ireland had done its QNHS on seasonal quarters so Q4 was actually Sept-Nov. However, in common with the rest of Europe we have changed to calendar quarters from Q1 2009. So this quarter will take in changes over what has seen the most colossal changes in Ireland's workforce.

Therefore the Q1 figure tomorrow will represent unemployment from its mid-point of February whereas the last figure available is from October 2008. The CSO does draw interpretations from the live register as to what the monthly unemployment rate is. Hence the quoted 11.8% estimate for May is based on assumptions drawn from data valid as of last October, and as we know a lot of things have changed since then. The estimated February figure by the CSO was 10.4%, that would look something like 228k unemployed in a workforce of 2.2million. If however either of these figures are appreciably out then the unemployment rate would have to be revised. So it is entirely possible that the Q1 QNHS will push our unemployment rate up into maybe 12-12.5% tomorrow as the latest revisions have added typically around 0.5% to CSO estimates.

Also, we will see total employment in the economy slip below 2million in the Q1 data. The first time since 2006. It stood at 2.052million for Q4 2008.

[anewbeginning]

Hmm I thought unemployment stood at 400K+ and rising steadily?

Anyone remember Cowen saying in January that unemployment could reach 400k by the end of 09.

It reached it at the end of may, 7 months ahead of prediction.

Cowen demonstrated clearly he was out of touch and that he doesn't have a handle on the economy.

[kerrynorth]

Hmm I thought unemployment stood at 400K+ and rising steadily?

Anyone remember Cowen saying in January that unemployment could reach 400k by the end of 09.

It reached it at the end of may, 7 months ahead of prediction.

Cowen demonstrated clearly he was out of touch and that he doesn't have a handle on the economy.

That is the live register. The live register is not the measure of unemployment as it includes part-time workers, those working short-time, seasonally unemployed and those signing on for credits etc.

[kerrynorth]

Just extrapolating from the October 2008 and February 2009 live register it went from 252k to 354k - a 40% increase. It that were to translate across to the QNHS it would mean 238k unemployed Q1. On a workforce of 2.2million that is a 10.8% unemployment rate for February, or circa 12.3% for May.

[Question R24U]

That is the live register. The live register is not the measure of unemployment as it includes part-time workers, those working short-time, seasonally unemployed and those signing on for credits etc.

Someone should explain that to RTE, Fine Gael, Irish Times etc.

This is far more important than the live register but gets far less attention since it actually requires analysis.

[Middleaged]

Someone should explain that to RTE, Fine Gael, Irish Times etc.

This is far more important than the live register but gets far less attention since it actually requires analysis.

Don't be silly when is the last time a fact stood in the way of a headline?

[kerrynorth]

90k jobs lost in 3 months according to CSO as employment falls from 2.054million in Q4 to 1.965million in Q1. An annualised loss of 350k jobs!!!!!
http://www.cso.ie/releasespublicatio...rrent/qnhs.pdf

[DCon]

90k jobs lost in 3 months according to CSO as employment falls from 2.054million in Q4 to 1.965million in Q1. An annualised loss of 350k jobs!!!!!
http://www.cso.ie/releasespublicatio...rrent/qnhs.pdf

If our Government was a horse it would be shot

[aidanodr]

Hiya,

Employment 1,965,600
Unemployment 222,800
Labour Force 2,188,400

I thought we had gone over 400,000??

So statistics - it depends on the way you precent them for the result you require to be seen?

Aidan

[odie1kanobe]

90k jobs lost in 3 months according to CSO as employment falls from 2.054million in Q4 to 1.965million in Q1. An annualised loss of 350k jobs!!!!!
http://www.cso.ie/releasespublicatio...rrent/qnhs.pdf

No as you would then be assumming that the rate of job losses would continue at the same rate month on month which is clearly not the case.