AIB abusing Irish Tax payers?

[SamVimesBoots]

It'll fail as soon as they have to stop lying about the impairment to their loan book!

At that point either the taxpayer will have to come up with €15-20bn immediately (on top of the approx €5bn or so the taxpayer will have already put in by that stage) or AIB will have to go under.

My guess is next Autumn when it becomes clear the magic 2010 upturn isn't going to arrive on time after all, the bankers and FF start to run out of excuses, and the end of the Guarantee is imminent. Even True Believers like you will start to have doubts at that stage.

This is only going one way kid - either the taxpayer stumps up €20-30bn in total for each of AIB and BOI to cover the losses, or both banks are going down.

Well done, FF.

[daithimac]

It'll fail as soon as they have to stop lying about the impairment to their loan book!

At that point either the taxpayer will have to come up with €15-20bn immediately (on top of the approx €5bn or so the taxpayer will have already put in by that stage) or AIB will have to go under.

My guess is next Autumn when it becomes clear the magic 2010 upturn isn't going to arrive on time after all, the bankers and FF start to run out of excuses, and the end of the Guarantee is imminent. Even True Believers like you will start to have doubts at that stage.

This is only going one way kid - either the taxpayer stumps up €20-30bn in total for each of AIB and BOI to cover the losses, or both banks are going down.

Well done, FF.

so that basis of your argument is that AIB have been lying about there loan book a la Anglo Irish Bank. I'm going to operate on the assumption that they have not. there may be no rosy recovery but I do not think that we will still be suffering major lay offs each week by that stage but I do think that the situation has already stabilised.

I haven't seen anything to back up your theory that there will need to be 20billion put in by the tax payer and I do not think they would have gone this far without being uncovered if they did have billions in debt under the carpet.

To base an entire argument on the premise that AIB is lying about billions seems a bit far fetched and more like trying to bend facts to meet a preconceived notion rather than a rational analysis.

[athlonedub]

It'll fail as soon as they have to stop lying about the impairment to their loan book!

At that point either the taxpayer will have to come up with €15-20bn immediately (on top of the approx €5bn or so the taxpayer will have already put in by that stage) or AIB will have to go under.

My guess is next Autumn when it becomes clear the magic 2010 upturn isn't going to arrive on time after all, the bankers and FF start to run out of excuses, and the end of the Guarantee is imminent. Even True Believers like you will start to have doubts at that stage.

This is only going one way kid - either the taxpayer stumps up €20-30bn in total for each of AIB and BOI to cover the losses, or both banks are going down.

Well done, FF.

but this is not an FF issue

ALL the parties are "in line" - didnt Richard Bruton jump right in line when the guarantee was put in place (and rightly so)

I am with Daithi on this one - respect your view Sam but dont agree at all. Bottom line is that this is a good deal for taxpayer. The reality is (a) we are behind the banks - whether you like it or not (and all parties agree) and (b) this move has reduced the real exposure to the taxpayer.

[SamVimesBoots]

What's with this "all the parties agree" line you keep pushing? I don't care if they all agree. They're all wrong.

The Guarantee was the most colossal error in the entire history of the State, by far.

Look at the impairment rates from every other housing bubble for each category of loan in the last 40 years, and apply that to the loan books of the main Irish banks. Do you seriously expect anyone literate, numerate and sane to believe that the impairment rates for Irish bubble loans will be much lower than the international experience, when we're coming out of one of the biggest housing bubbles in history? Really?

Where are the banks going to get the tens of billions they will need to cover their losses on these loans? You can sit there going "I just don't agree" all you like, but you've got nothing to back that disagreement up, except a childlike belief that everything will be strawberries and cream by next year.

And how the f*** can you sit there with a straight face and say this isn't an FF issue? FF are in power, FF have been in power for 12 years, it's FF's total mismangement of the economy, FF's deliberate blowing of a massive housing bubble, FF's failure to regulate the banks and lending practices, and FF's bloody damnable Guarantee that is going to sink this entire country!

Wilfull denial, that's all it is. Wake up, man. You can't fix a problem as big as this one by sticking your fingers in your ears and going "laa-laaa-la-la-I-can't-hear-you"

[athlonedub]

What's with this "all the parties agree" line you keep pushing? I don't care if they all agree. They're all wrong.

The Guarantee was the most colossal error in the entire history of the State, by far.

Look at the impairment rates from every other housing bubble for each category of loan in the last 40 years, and apply that to the loan books of the main Irish banks. Do you seriously expect anyone literate, numerate and sane to believe that the impairment rates for Irish bubble loans will be much lower than the international experience, when we're coming out of one of the biggest housing bubbles in history? Really?

Where are the banks going to get the tens of billions they will need to cover their losses on these loans? You can sit there going "I just don't agree" all you like, but you've got nothing to back that disagreement up, except a childlike belief that everything will be strawberries and cream by next year.

And how the f*** can you sit there with a straight face and say this isn't an FF issue? FF are in power, FF have been in power for 12 years, it's FF's total mismangement of the economy, FF's deliberate blowing of a massive housing bubble, FF's failure to regulate the banks and lending practices, and FF's bloody damnable Guarantee that is going to sink this entire country!

Wilfull denial, that's all it is. Wake up, man. You can't fix a problem as big as this one by sticking your fingers in your ears and going "laa-laaa-la-la-I-can't-hear-you"

OK , so we're making progress here. We now agree that all parties, and in fact virtualy all observers around the world (or at least those in positions of authority anyway) are on one side of the arguement and you are on the other. "They're all wrong" per yourself (and of course you are right) Let others just make up their mind on that.....

Do I take it you are in favour of withdrawing the guarantee? Would you mind citing the expert opinion in support of this course of action or the political support you have for this?

We dont have a bank problem because of the housing bubble in Ireland. The level of housing foreclosures is miniscule. The problem here is development loans - these are our toxic loans. If all we had was historic impairment on housing loans, this would be a (relative) cakewalk.

Do I believe BOI and AIB will come throught - yes. (See previous comment on Insurance Corporation of Ireland). Is it in the best interest for Ireland for AIB and BOI to go bust - no (again, it would be interesting to see your support for this among the body politic).

Sam, I respect your viewpoint, but equally I respectfully disagree with it. There is no point in trying to get personal. I am sure my academic qualifications and life experiences as an employee and now as a self employed employer are equal to your own. I too am part of an employer trying to make sure we meet our payroll every month. Perhaps you could share with us why your voewpoint is so much more superior??

[SamVimesBoots]

Because it's based on facts and applying historical precedent to the cold hard numbers, not fairy tales?

We don't have a bank problem because of the housing bubble, would ye ger on up the yard with that nonsense As if the €90bn or so in developer loans had nothing at all to do with the biggest housing bubble in history. Who the hell are you trying to kid, cos it certainly isn't me. Yer only codding yourself, man.

Yes, the Guarantee should never have been made, yes it should be immediately repudiated before it leads to the insolvency of the State, yes all the main parties are talking out their holes. These would be the same parties that in 2007 went to the country with a bunch of manifestoes proclaiming the good times would never end and there would be lollipops for everyone in the audience when the housing bubble had clearly already burst and the public finances were already in terminal decline, so I don't know why you think they are suddenly a bunch of economic geniuses, or that their opinion on matters economic/financial is worth a warm spit!

Your position makes no sense and is based purely on Hope, and on believing what a proven bunch of spoofers and charlatans tell you you want to hear. And there's not much more that can be said on the matter.

[athlonedub]

Yes, the Guarantee should never have been made, yes it should be immediately repudiated before it leads to the insolvency of the State, yes all the main parties are talking out their holes. These would be the same parties that in 2007 went to the country with a bunch of manifestoes proclaiming the good times would never end and there would be lollipops for everyone in the audience when the housing bubble had clearly already burst and the public finances were already in terminal decline, so I don't know why you think they are suddenly a bunch of economic geniuses, or that their opinion on matters economic/financial is worth a warm spit!

Your position makes no sense and is based purely on Hope, and on believing what a proven bunch of spoofers and charlatans tell you you want to hear. And there's not much more that can be said on the matter.

...and on that note, I think we should let the observers make up their own mind!

[121.5]

wow, I am stunned.

It is quite apparent that vested interests are trying to blurb out common sense on this thread

Sam, excellent posting and pardon the pun, 'on the money'

when are people going to wake up to the truth?

so many in denial, the fraud on the taxpayer and everyones grandchildren continues.....

yet others defend it..... Has Terry Prone got them typing?