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Thread: Deflation Rising

  1. #1
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    Deflation Rising

    According to the Irish Times, deflation is rising downwards.

    "THE ANNUAL rate of deflation rose to 4.7 per cent in May..."


    Deflation at level not seen since 1933 - The Irish Times - Fri, Jun 12, 2009

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    Why don't they publish a non-mortgage inflation index so we can see what the true deflation rate is?

    Is it also the case as it was last month that most of the inflation still in the system is being driven by Government?

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    Quote Originally Posted by SamVimesBoots View Post
    Why don't they publish a non-mortgage inflation index so we can see what the true deflation rate is?
    Firstly that is not be in any way the true rate of deflation because people do in fact pay mortgages so if the cost of mortgages falls then the general cost of living falls.
    But they do release CPI - mortgage interest and that is -1.2% for the year.
    Is it also the case as it was last month that most of the inflation still in the system is being driven by Government?
    Most no, it wasn't true last mont. Government services (health and education) where and are contributing but those have a low "weight" that is people spend less money on them than other things. Most of the inflation still in the system is insurance inflation. This month alcohol and tobacco also increased (I presume that is government caused?) so including that this month's government caused inflationary effects almost (but don't quite) equal the inflationary effects of insurance.
    "She'll hold together. Hear me, baby? Hold together!"

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    Quote Originally Posted by SamVimesBoots View Post
    Why don't they publish a non-mortgage inflation index so we can see what the true deflation rate is?
    They do. Its called the HICP. Its a European harmonised index of consumer price inflation. It was -1.7% for the 12 moths to April.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kerrynorth View Post
    They do. Its called the HICP. Its a European harmonised index of consumer price inflation. It was -1.7% for the 12 moths to April.
    karl Whelan has a post on how best to handle mortgages in the CPI

    The Irish Economy Blog Archive Deflation and Housing Costs

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    Quote Originally Posted by Duth Ealla View Post
    karl Whelan has a post on how best to handle mortgages in the CPI

    The Irish Economy Blog Archive Deflation and Housing Costs
    This blog has a graph on it, showing the different rates of inflation across sectors of the economy over the last twenty years.
    Deflation - Examining Consumer Prices in Ireland since 1980 | Ronan Lyons

    An astonishing level of variability across different sectors, IMO - and interesting to notice education and health leading the charge!

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    What this means is a very slight drop in the rate of increase of negative equity.

    That is different to deflation.

    It also means that, if mortgage interest rates rise while the rest of prices continue to fall, the official deflation will stop.
    When you see the words "Mises" or "Hayek" in someone's post, just ask yourself: do I really want to ban paper money and go back to gold?

    You have to pity the kind of people who buy into conspiracy theories. I find the following to be the saddest words on the internet: "Re: connection between Bilderberg puppet lady gaga and viral outbreak in ukraine "

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    Quote Originally Posted by feargach View Post
    What this means is a very slight drop in the rate of increase of negative equity.

    That is different to deflation.

    It also means that, if mortgage interest rates rise while the rest of prices continue to fall, the official deflation will stop.
    Sorry, I don't follow. This discussion was about deflation - falling prices.
    Your comment seems to be about negative equity, which is something entirely different (relative sizes of loans and value of houses). Deflation is increasing. One of the elements is not house prices falling (not captured in inflation measures), rather interest repayments for a given loan falling (due to interest rate falls).

    Prices in most other sectors also falling, apart from - as per usual - the public sectors, health and education and government-determined prices, alcohol and tobacco.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Scorpio View Post
    This blog has a graph on it, showing the different rates of inflation across sectors of the economy over the last twenty years.
    Deflation - Examining Consumer Prices in Ireland since 1980 | Ronan Lyons

    An astonishing level of variability across different sectors, IMO - and interesting to notice education and health leading the charge!

    Revised view of the link - there is no source for the data, and contrary to what the blogger says, there is only a significant fall in the clothing/footwear category. Can anyone make sense of it?

  10. #10
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    The other problem is that we are in the worst unemployment crisis in Ireland since the Famine, and prices have fallen only slightly from peak.

    Put it this way: unemployment is now 130% of the previous worst-ever figure back in the early 90s.

    And prices are down what? 6 or 7% from their highest-ever figure in 2007?

    Do you see the disconnect?

    Prices are up maybe 400% from the last time there were this many unemployed in Ireland.
    When you see the words "Mises" or "Hayek" in someone's post, just ask yourself: do I really want to ban paper money and go back to gold?

    You have to pity the kind of people who buy into conspiracy theories. I find the following to be the saddest words on the internet: "Re: connection between Bilderberg puppet lady gaga and viral outbreak in ukraine "

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