"Ireland will beat recession", "Rapid growth... as early as next year" - Cowen

[oceanclub]

Dear God, the poor man has lost it. Time to put him out of his misery. Surely there's some small town in Offaly that requires the services of a belligerant solicitor?

P.

[feargach]

90% of our exports are from FDI, which represents not much value for the economy as such.

Yeesh, the entire Chinese economy is wholly beholden to FDI, and they're "not getting much value"? FDI is good for Ireland because foreigners have proven to be far more prudent investors in Ireland than the Irish themselves.

One of the causes for this crash is that there has been virtually zero non-property investment from Irish sources in this economy for the last decade

[Watcher1]

So everyone is convinced that this will be a forever depression then?

Anyone of the opinion that it is plausible for us to have a quarter of positive growth in 2010? It would truly be astonishing if the gobs of money poured into the global system by the Fed, ECB, Japan and China didn't work its way through the system to cause a considerable global improvement. It would be even more weird if this wash of money didn't affect Western Europe's most open economy.

Is it possible, if the global/european economies pick up and we "ride the waves" and come back to growth, that we (individuals) will still not experience to exuberance to which you refer?

Let me explain, the government is thrashing us into unbelievebale amounts of debt (we now have the highest debt level we ever had by about 30%+) and when NAMA is brought into being it will most likely double again. NOw, with that level of debt, we, the individual tax payer will have to pay off that debt. So, while economists bang on about how good the country might be doing, that will make little impact on us poor sods.

So, forgive me, but I can share in your optimism.

Edit: That should read "cant share"

[iartaoiseach]

he must be auditioning for the remake of the wizard of oz. keep clicking them heels Brian

[Watcher1]

Slashing costs is a good thing, but it has to be done surgically and with extreme care. If you use a blunderbuss, you do more harm than good. Latvia is a very recent example of cost-slashing done wrong, wiping out 18% of the economy in 3 months. (I hope this is a clear enough example of the wholly malign and entirely destructive intentions of the IMF. We need to rule out any engagement with the IMF under any circumstances.)

You need to do it in such a way that it doesn't drag down healthy parts of the economy with it.

I cant see anyother way than the IMF coming in here. We are careering down the road of too much debt with this NAMA thing, on top of borrrowing to pay for our government, that the EU will not be in a position to bail us out before long. After all, didn't the EU refer only to a bail out fund of a mere €60bn? That's if they implement that plan. We will need €60bn ourselves alone. How much of that fund do you think the EU will apportion to Ireland?

So, if the EU will not be able to bail us out, its the IMF then, isn't it?

The government has to stop this NAMA craziness.

[jpc]

Ah go and boil your head you fool.



Spoof, bluster and waffle, exactly the sort of vacuous sh*te that got us into this mess in the first place. People like you are a clear and present danger to us ever getting out of this mess because as long as people listen to your guff they'll not actually take the actions that are required, wrapped in their comfort blankie that all they have to do is hunker down for 6 months and suddenly everything will be wonderful again. It's people like you and your spin and waffle that are why we have no plan to get out of this, and why sane commentators can't see any recovery any time soon.

WHERE IS THE GROWTH GOING TO COME FROM?

[COLOR="Red"]Until we slash costs, eradicate corruption and vested-interest gouging, and put real sustained effort into the SME trading sector there will be no recovery. You don't get a recovery by sitting on yer hole waiting for the Americans or the EU to make it all better, you do it by getting off your arse[/COLOR], identifying and going to war on the structural imbalances and problems that have led us here, and really really working hard at preparing the ground for an Irish-led recovery. With a strong competitive cost-effective local industrial base we can then take advantage of any global upturn. But if we don't have that base then the global upturn will simply pass us by!

What is wrong with the idiots in this country? Jaysus, it's not rocket science, it's simple common sense! Take yer head out of yer hole and stop believing in fairy tales, yer not 5 years old any more.

Well said.
It hasn't started to get bad yet.
Lets talk again next year.
When reality starts to dawn for the comfortable class.

[feargach]

OK but do have regard to this important perspective: out debt to GDP ratio is very good by EU standards, even if it leaps very high.

Long-term, due to our younger population, our economy will outshine most of Europe as the average age of non-Irish Europe goes up past 65 while ours will be much younger and much more productive.

The weighing-down of the thirtysomethings by their foolish mortgage debt is a matter for concern, but there is a quite important younger cohort who have no mortgage to worry about, and their economic behaviour will make or break us.

There is justification for a lot of hope still, thanks to our young people and their non-encumbered status.

[Watcher1]

OK but do have regard to this important perspective: out debt to GDP ratio is very good by EU standards, even if it leaps very high.

Long-term, due to our younger population, our economy will outshine most of Europe as the average age of non-Irish Europe goes up past 65 while ours will be much younger and much more productive.

The weighing-down of the thirtysomethings by their foolish mortgage debt is a matter for concern, but there is a quite important younger cohort who have no mortgage to worry about, and their economic behaviour will make or break us.

There is justification for a lot of hope still, thanks to our young people and their non-encumbered status.

That little statistic is really starting to bug me now because the government used it, and still do probably, to get them out of a hole. They constantly said the NTMA was doing a great job of managing our national debt because the GDP ratio was falling so much. They convbeniently ommited telling us that the actualy debt was static (more or less). When the government had the opportunity to reduce our debt level they did bugger all about it and now we have massive debt levels, 50bn last year and will climb to 3 times that in about 2 years more than likely.

So, your unencombered younger cohort dont look to hot now in my eyes.

[MsAnneThrope]

However the 2 main causes of the recession are the construction boom and a fall in international trade. The construction employment adjustment is almost completed and international trade will pick up inevitably.

You're not comparing apples with apples Imported_Deise. "Construction employment" is one thing. The humongous debt in property is an entirely different thing and will be a key economic driver for this country, even if by divine intervention all the construction workers found employment elsewhere.

The massive number of unsold and respossessed houses and vacant commercial properties, all built using debt, will be a massive weight around our necks for years to come.

international trade will pick up inevitably

Inevitably it will. But when? Did you read the revised US Fed economic forecasts yesterday? Cowen, like many fantasists, is hoping it will be next year. But that's all he has is hope. And it may be several years away yet. Even when international trade picks up, we'll still be feeling the pain from our property bubble for another generation at least.

And even if international trade miraculously recovered overnight, are we in a position to take advantage? Have they already forgotten the reasons the likes of Dell are moving to Poland? And the thousands of other export jobs lost during the building boom?

It's time for our politicians to put an end to the wishful thinking and come up with policies to recover ourselves. It's like someone behind in their mortgage ignoring the solicitors letters in the hope they will just miraculously go away.

[Dios]

However in the short to medium term our recovery will have large element of FDI to it as we regain our competitiveness.

Well, thats assuming we have a prayer of attracting FDI to the country, all things considered. No, I think we need serious financial assistance from the EU to kickstart our own domestic industries in the short to medium term.

Yeesh, the entire Chinese economy is wholly beholden to FDI, and they're "not getting much value"?

Generally speaking, companies outsource work to Chinese firms, who retain control of the IP one way or the other, whether by adding their own software layer to electronics, adjusting designs in a very minor fashion, or just flat out pirating them. The products are then resold to the companies who outsourced the production. Any way you slice it, the profits stay at home, big difference between them and us.

Also China has a vast, vast domestic industrial base which produces its own products. You don't see many Chinese cars on the road, but if you use a computer you're using Chinese industrial products right there.