"Strong demand" for Irish govt debt of €1 billion.

[feargach]

Feargach,

Define temporary - Months, Years, I need you to be exactly specific.

If I knew exactly what month the global recession would end I would be racing my solid gold speedboat around the Bahamas, not posting on P.ie.

The consensus amongst the economists who predicted this recession is that it is most likely to end in 2010. When precisely, nobody knows.

[kate1001]

They'll have some explaining on Thursday both to the Irish people and our European counterparts.

Nationalised Anglo Irish Bank requires bigger State capital injection; Announcement this week of biggest business loss in Irish history

[AMCW177]

The consensus amongst the economists who predicted this recession is that it is most likely to end in 2010. When precisely, nobody knows.

I doubt that, say, Nouriel Roubini or Peter Schiff think this recession will be over, even in America, for quite a few years yet.

We have not even begun to address the imbalances that led to this - not here, not in the US, not China or Japan, not anywhere.

"It'll all be over by 2010" is the call of all the muppets who in 2006 were claiming the good times would keep rolling forever, not the people who were screaming that the house of cards was about to collapse.

[feargach]

I doubt that, say, Nouriel Roubini or Peter Schiff think this recession will be over, even in America, for quite a few years yet.

We have not even begun to address the imbalances that led to this - not here, not in the US, not China or Japan, not anywhere.

"It'll all be over by 2010" is the call of all the muppets who in 2006 were claiming the good times would keep rolling forever, not the people who were screaming that the house of cards was about to collapse.

Your doubts are incorrect: Roubini did indeed predict growth in 2010 (albeit not very high growth, but growth nonetheless).

, sub-par and well below trend growth for at least two years into all of 2010 and 2011; a couple of quarters of more rapid growth cannot be ruled out as we get out of this recession towards the end of the year and/or early next year as firms rebuild inventories and the effects of the monetary and fiscal stimulus reach a delayed peak. But at least ten structural weaknesses of the US and the global economy will cause both a below trend growth and even the risk of a reduction of potential growth itself.

Third, we cannot rule out a double dip W-shaped recession with the wings of a tentative recovery of growth in 2010 at risk of being clipped towards the end of that year or in 2011 by a perfect storm of rising oil prices, rising taxes and rising nominal and real interest rates on the public debt of many advanced economies as concerns about medium term fiscal sustainability and about the risk that monetization of fiscal deficits will lead to inflationary pressures after two years of deflationary pressures".

So we "cannot rule out" a second recession at the end of 2010, implying that for the rest of 2010, there will be positive growth of some kind.

All in all, Roubini is saying growth (i.e: the mirror opposite of recession) is very much the most likely scenario in 2010. He refers to a slim possibility of recession for a small part of 2010, but is outright in predicting growth for most of the year.

[youngdan]

Roubini is wrong, this is not a recession, it is an economic collapse that is mathematically unavoidable.

[feargach]

Roubini is wrong, this is not a recession, it is an economic collapse that is mathematically unavoidable.

Hehehe, in 2006, people were saying "Roubini is wrong, this is not a fragile expansion, we have reached a permanently high level of growth that is mathematically unavoidable."

[youngdan]

I have no idea what you are talking about so that makes two of us.


The rates on the 10 last week was 5.19%. Look for this to take a huge jump to 6% in the auction in 3 weeks time