Should Ireland Plan for Zero Oil ?

[Geckko]

Loads does not equal infinity

Enough that we don't need to resort to Soviet style central planning.

Nobody directed the use of oil in the global economy, it happened as technology changed and it became the cheapest, most efficient source of energy.

The same will happen again out the other side. We don't need central planning. My expectation is that if we can keep politicians and political lobby groups like the greenies well away then in around 100 years we will be witnessing a drop in the absolute level of oil demand as some of the present infant technologies (solar/wind/tidal etc.) begin to pay their way, combined with a gradual rise in oil prices (i.e. over multi-decadal periods).

Note that already, we see a relative drop in oil demand - we use less and less for each $/€/Yen of output/income we produce.

[Dios]

I will make a deal will all you oil haters. You go and do whatever you want but, don't demand a hand out to do it. I will keep using petrol and you can stop taxing the bejesus out of it.

Fossil fuels are heavily subsidised. You might say that doesn't count since its in a foreign country, but if they stop their subsidies, you can bet it will starting counting in a big hurry then. But not to worry, its not like Russia would ever, er, do anything like... hrm...

Nobody directed the use of oil in the global economy, it happened as technology changed and it became the cheapest, most efficient source of energy.

What. Operation Ajax that spawned modern day Iran was directly due to a conflict over oil. And thats the very tip of the iceberg. If you had to do it again, from scratch, wind and electrical infrastructure are far cheaper.

We don't need central planning.

Yes, yes we do.

Net energy exporter. Nice.

[dunk]

7009 AD - "Mammy, did humans really live like that then, why were they so stupid, did not know they were killing themselves?
young kid talking with mother in POST OIL AGE

Like it or not lads, the honeymoon is over, or soon to be anyway. This "economic crisis" is but the first crack in a system that thrived while it could but is over, the cheap abundant oil days are over. Its not like a car that goes till the last drop, its when you peak that trouble starts for an economy.

I refer you to a graph from just a few years back, showing global discovery / consumption graph, that is the reality.



Or to put it in simpler terms, as world thinker on peak oil, Colin Cambell has done:


Anyway more about all that stuff at From OIL AGE financial crisis, to sustainable communities + COP 15

And yes it is possible to live sustainably, it will be a different type of world than that which we are used to today, but its already happening, and as many are finding out "Maybe that future less oil dependand world might be a whole lot more enjoyable than life today"

In case you want to see the DOOM AND GLOOM side on why oil age has many of us in a mess, id suggest [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3uvzcY2Xug"]The End of Suburbia[/ame] (52 minute documentary on oil)

BUT to finish on a hopeful note, the original film link given in this thread, that which we screened down in scariff, east clare, when the community gardeners of the island of ireland came together some years back to meet, socialise, swap stories and dreams, continue to build up a more sustainable enjoyable alternative...



heres that cuban film, (the trailer), IT ROCKS!!!


The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil

And one last hopeful thing, have ye heard of the plan for SPIRIT OF IRELAND, to go from 98% import of fossil fuels in Ireland to aiming for full green energy production as well as exporter, I think they are on to a winner here, im v excited by the Bold idea. (keep an eye on development at their TWITTER site

[dunk]

Heres recent article from New York Times on how the Transition movement is having a big quick impact there... The End Is Near! (Yay!)

Transition shares certain principles with environmentalism, but its vision is deeper — and more radical — than mere greenness or sustainability. “Sustainability,” Hopkins recently told me, “is about reducing the impacts of what comes out of the tailpipe of industrial society.” But that assumes our industrial society will keep running. By contrast, Hopkins said, Transition is about “building resiliency” — putting new systems in place to make a given community as self-sufficient as possible, bracing it to withstand the shocks that will come as oil grows astronomically expensive, climate change intensifies and, maybe sooner than we think, industrial society frays or collapses entirely. For a generation, the environmental movement has told us to change our lifestyles to avoid catastrophic consequences. Transition tells us those consequences are now irreversibly switching on; we need to revolutionize our lives if we want to survive.

This link found from Transition US on Twitter



loads more info and radio interviews and radio show from climate camp uk 2008 here

[DS-09]

but what about the oil sands- sources say that there is enough energy there to last the world a few hundred years- maybe more

[dunk]

the oil sands? a bit more on that please...

[JCSkinner]

Google Canadian oil sands. The oil is mixed with sand, making it currently too expensive to refine. But once scarcity kicks in and price rises, voila, it becomes viable.
A bit like the coal pits being re-opened in Britain now, after Thatcher shut them as being uneconomical in the Eighties.

[dunk]

While im also at it, and if you have 3 hours to look at them, id really recomend the crash course in economics for a finite planet approaching crisis time, from Chris Martenson.

Id direct you to this very important chapter: [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EXd66gP53fk"]Exponential Growth by Chris Martenson[/ame]

As oil demand goes up, big time, as population continues to go up. The 2 hungriest Nations have a third of the planet living there, india and china. exponential growth will meet limits, that is gonna hurt unless you have planned for it and taken appropriate steps...

Oiche Mhaith

[DS-09]

3 hours to look at what exactly (don't you know we have other things to be doing). Just give us a summary of whats its about will you?

[dunk]

i did, its that 6 min embedded vid above.

Its one of 20 vids, all ranging in length. The overall gist isreparing for massive changes in life in the next 20 years, due to peaking and hitting limits in nearly all things in life. Martenson describes it as:

baseline understanding of the economy so that you can better appreciate the risks that we all face.

the link came from Permaculture networks to Transition networks in spain... I have not watched all 20, only about half, it is well worth doing so.