Exchequer may be running out of willing creditors

[kerrynorth]

Excuse the ignorance folks put I take it that rate is per annum?

If so do they get it all at the end in one lump sum or at the end of each year the deal is in existence?

Take for example the €700million 4.5% 2018 bond. The NTMA got that away at an initial yield of 5.082%. That means that the government issued €700million of debt although they will be only actually receiving circa €625million in cash for that €700million in paper. The Exchequer will then pay those bondholders €31.5million every year (€700million x 4.5%) until 2018 when they will buy back the €700million in paper - provided the country does not go belly up in the interim.

[cavok]

When you think it will burst? July?

Diggers,

I think you should add defiled, raped, and robbed to your signature.

If you come up with some nice poetry I will fund some T Shirts

[Outlander]

The announcement of the bills next Thursday takes the biscuit. One is for just about 40 days. They are just limping to get to Lisbon in October but they won't make it

The offer on Thursday next is for bills maturing on 29 May 09, 31 July 09, and 30 Oct 09, each for about €500m. These look like loans from the Credit Union to pay the interest on the credit card...

Are they hoping that the magic dust will improve our ratings before October when they will have to commit to the big one?

[youngdan]

what inclines you to think DE are at a good risk of DEF?

curious...

I don't, The present deflation was forecast clearly but it has not much further to run imo. The fractional reserve type system can not survive deflation so we will have quantative easing or printing to overcome the deflation or else the euro will be tossed aside.

The bond buyers would not be expecting inflation and trad cat used a recent figure for Ireland of -4%

[cavok]

I don't, The present deflation was forecast clearly but it has not much further to run imo. The fractional reserve type system can not survive deflation so we will have quantative easing or printing to overcome the deflation or else the euro will be tossed aside.

The bond buyers would not be expecting inflation and trad cat used a recent figure for Ireland of -4%

With respect to Germany I am of the opnion that they can ride a 2 year storm, I have dealings there and alot of their mini stims are working at the mo

If they are in trouble late '10 early '11 then I will be worrried

do you have contradicting indicators?

[kerrynorth]

The offer on Thursday next is for bills maturing on 29 May 09, 31 July 09, and 30 Oct 09, each for about €500m. These look like loans from the Credit Union to pay the interest on the credit card...

Are they hoping that the magic dust will improve our ratings before October when they will have to commit to the big one?

Those bond issues Thursday could be used for the definition of 'what to do when you have run out of all other options'.

[kerrynorth]

It is really amazing that this is just getting no coverage. What happened today and what they proposing Thursday is the clearest indication yet that the government may not be able to pay public sector wages, social welfare and pensions in the coming months. And this gets no coverage whatsoever!!

[cavok]

It is really amazing that this is just getting no coverage. What happened today and what they proposing Thursday is the clearest indication yet that the government may not be able to pay public sector wages, social welfare and pensions in the coming months. And this gets no coverage whatsoever!!

Is George still on 'vacation'?

[cavok]

It is really amazing that this is just getting no coverage. What happened today and what they proposing Thursday is the clearest indication yet that the government may not be able to pay public sector wages, social welfare and pensions in the coming months. And this gets no coverage whatsoever!!

Kerry, If you think thats bad take a scan through these docs...

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/pls...2009-EN-AP.PDF

Welcome to Ireland FF Inc

The data for Jan 09 and Feb 09 are impressive... arent they?

[youngdan]

With respect to Germany I am of the opnion that they can ride a 2 year storm, I have dealings there and alot of their mini stims are working at the mo

If they are in trouble late '10 early '11 then I will be worrried

do you have contradicting indicators?

No. I don't follow Germany closely. My opinion would be based on the reasoning that lending cash to the US at 2.8% or Germany at whatever their 10 year rate is is the height of insanity. Government bonds everyplace are at a historical high and buying at these prices is crazy.

Take the Irish bond today. If Linehan went up to you and asked you to lend him a 1000 euros with the promise that he would give it back to you in 2018 and give you 50 bucks a year in the interim
you would tell him to screw. You know that the probabily of the government having the grand in 2018 are very slack with the way things are going.