Exchequer may be running out of willing creditors

[Cael]

Thanks Kerry I have been waiting for this. They have lost the smarts shown for the 1st two large offerings. The exact same size due again in exactly one month giving the indication that they will be begging for a billion a month going forward.

Once again what is important is the rate and the slack demand results in 5.08 as against 2.8 for similiar US Treasuries

That about sums it up, a chara.

[Cael]

We are actually receiving only circa €625million in cash now for that €983.5million.

Forgive my ignorance, but where does the other 75 million go?

[Odyessus]

Forgive my ignorance, but where does the other 75 million go?

They lend us €625 million and we pay them back €700 million in 2018, plus 4.5% per annum in the interim.

[youngdan]

Welcome Cael.
That is not the correct answer to your ceist.


Let me explain what happened. They wished to sell/borrow 700 million which they will repay in 2018. they told the assorted bidders that the cash paid out each year would be 45 euros for each 1000 euro bond. This would equate to a bid of 100.

Then the bidders thought on the situation and decided on how much they were willing to pay for 45 euros a year and a grand in 2018. Nobody was willing to settle for that and they bid less than 100.


When all the bids were looked at they gave the bonds to the highest bidders in descending order until the entire 700 billion was sold. They then figured out the average price which turned out to be 95.68. This is the all important figure not the bid to cover ratio or anything else.

The result is that any lad that bought a 1000 euro bond paid 956.80 euros for it. When the calculation are done this is an interest rate of 5.08%

So forget about the figure of 625 because for face value of 700 they got 670 million. They would need to sell a bit more to end up with the 700 million cash that they raised.

Don't be a stranger.

[Cael]

Go raibh maith agat, a chara. Very well explained, as always.

[jpc]

12 of the 25bn for 2009 has already been achieved.
None of in googled press reports have highlighted this as a particularily major point - reuter say ntma shrug lack of demand and risk of default abated.
There is no talk of a national government.
The EU approved our national finance recovery.
The IMF appear disinterested.
Not even richard bruton or george lee are getting too exited by this.

Is this talk overstated or is general denial the order of the day?

Make that 25 bn a 26.5 bn as of today.

[kerrynorth]

Make that 25 bn a 26.5 bn as of today.

It was only 1, 3 and 6 month bonds. They do not even have till the end of the year ffs.

[Sailor]

When we speak of the need to keep the "international markets" happy, can anybody tell me who exactly we are talking about? Is it, by any chance, the same international financial institutions who, with their crazy financial constructs, got us into this mess in the first place? Couldn´t be, could it ??!!!

[kerrynorth]

An SBP article today is also acknowledging that Ireland is running out of an ability to borrow. It says that the €1billion raised last Tuesday when just €1.24billion was tendered compares with €3billion tendered for a similar €1billion bond offering from May last year. Therefore, only circa 40% of the money offered compared to a year ago.
Sunday Business Post | Irish Business News

[youngdan]

The lad that wrote that Clerkin would need an editor to correct his mistakes. He has the figures and durations all mixed up. The 700 million is the 2018 bond.

He did not point out to the reader that you can not compare bills to bonds and the bid to cover on the bills meant nothing. The bill auction results were as bad as the others.


The question is now. Should they go back to the syndication method. Flog 5 billion at whatever rate it takes and spin it accordongly. They also have to decide if they will try for maybe 2 or 3 years. Roll on next month