NAMA or Nationalise

[turdsl]

Sinn Fein was right, nationalisation is the only way to go,be very hard to admit that in a few months time,

[youngdan]

It is the people who have not got what it takes. They are full of shythe.

[Dreaded_Estate]

People were and are ready for more serious change. The government haven't got what it takes, thats true, but if ever there was a time for change, this is it.

I don't think they are nearly ready for the cuts that will have to come.

The country was up in arms at the severity of the taxes in the last budget and the public sector were outraged at pay cuts that amounted to about 5%.

These 2 measures amounted to about €3B to €4B and we need to get or cut €25B! FF just hasn't got across the severity of our situation to the rest of the country.

Or more likely judging by their reaction to the removal of a €6k increment they don't understand it themselves.

[Dios]

It is the people who have not got what it takes. They are full of shythe.

You should stick to the stock markets Dan.

The country was up in arms at the severity of the taxes in the last budget and the public sector were outraged at pay cuts that amounted to about 5%.

I don't know, most people I spoke to were more irritated that the soft touch was used when more was needed, as in don't call it a levy, just increase the damn taxes already. I have great faith in the Irish people.

As for the public sector, if it became the case that a blue sky would require a cut in PS pay, the unions would release an earnest twelve page report outlining that it was clearly the case that the sky was in fact an off-green colour, backed up by what they see as media friendly soundbites of mothers holding babies supporting that view.

[youngdan]

Dios, do you really believe the people could hack a budget cut down to say 23 billion where it could be balanced. This would require something in the order of no free health care for anyone, no army at all except keep the rangers, no dole after say 13 weeks. big cuts in whats left of the public service. These are rough estimates but close enough.

Then are the rest of the private sector willing to take a huge reduction to stop further job losses.


There would be some hope if they had faith in the leadership but they deserve no faith


I saw a figure for health care of 17 billion so if that were preserved you are only left 5 billion for everything else. Reality is a long way away

[COMMIE]

I don't think anybody in the world can take Ireland at face value. As we have all the bankers in place, that help to put us in this mess. And a regulater with no legal powers.

[Dios]

Dios, do you really believe the people could hack a budget cut down to say 23 billion where it could be balanced.

More like 35 billion.

This would require something in the order of no free health care for anyone, no army at all except keep the rangers, no dole after say 13 weeks. big cuts in whats left of the public service. These are rough estimates but close enough.

If you put the base rate up to 30% and the marginal rate to 65% the budget would balance with no cuts. Theres no need to go that far however, social welfare is a massive slice of government expenditure, and not incidentally the area most used and abused not only by the locals but by plenty of migrants as well. Cleaning that up to prevent fraud and a moderate reduction would go a long way towards balancing the books, and another long step by bringing public sector workers in line with their European counterparts. We don't need an army in its current form. This is again not that bad when you consider deflation, the reduction in prices and hence growth in purchasing power.

Its not the end of the world if we need then to borrow a few billion a year until we get some decent domestic industries. Keep in mind that these are probably along the same lines as the IMF would implement, giving a clear signal to the markets that Ireland was a good place to lend to once again.

There would be some hope if they had faith in the leadership but they deserve no faith

Agreed, and I have no intention of being in a position where I need to have faith in them.

[youngdan]

35 billion is last months estimate. Hopelessly optimistic. But you are right, foolish rubbish is lightly about 10 billion

[Dreaded_Estate]

If you put the base rate up to 30% and the marginal rate to 65% the budget would balance with no cuts. Theres no need to go that far however, social welfare is a massive slice of government expenditure, and not incidentally the area most used and abused not only by the locals but by plenty of migrants as well.

Increasing the tax rates to 30% and 65% would bring in less than €11B IMO.

20%->30% €500m per 1% -> 10*€500m = €5.00B
41%->65% €250m per 1% -> 24*€250m = €6.00B

That does not take into account that each additional 1% increase in the rates would bring is less and less. So we could be looking at a net positive to the exchequer of less than €10B.

And even after those increases we will need to find another €15B or so.

[Dios]

And even after those increases we will need to find another €15B or so.

I ran the numbers a while back, don't ask me to find the post at this hour. Its not far off accurate however, as far as I understand it. What are you basing your numbers on?

If what Dan is saying is accurate, €25 billion revenues, we are sunk in more ways than can be contemplated. We may as well lop off half the public sector, make Donegal the 51st state, and work from there. I refuse to accept that is the case however, since recessionary waves tend to be front loaded, and we're already over the crest of the first wave. We do need to brace for the second one however. Reduce costs, increase taxes, is unfortunately the path to follow, but one that will ultimately get us where we are going, since borrowing is clearly out, at least until we have shown we are on the road to recovery.