Is now a good time to buy bank shares in Ireland?

[Kev408]

One of my brothers' friends bought Euro1,000 of Bank of Ireland shares when they hit 12cent recently. Bank of Ireland is now sitting at 84cent. He's made euro7,000 if he sells on Tuesday. That's probably small change to some people but this bloke is ecstatic!

A good site to observe the ups and downs of Irish and UK shares is www.sharewatch.com. What I'm wondering about is if it's a good time to buy B of I or AIB asap? The worst case scenario is they go bust. The best case scenario is that they go up rapidly.

[draiocht23]

What I'm wondering about is if it's a good time to buy B of I or AIB asap? The worst case scenario is they go bust. The best case scenario is that they go up rapidly.

That's usually the way shares go - up or down!

[Kev408]

That's usually the way shares go - up or down!

You owed me that for my comments in another thread on people getting up at different times - hence leading to repeated news headlines. Something you were wondering about.

My point is that the chances of the aforementioned banks going bust are surely very slim. Also, the chances of them reaching them highs such as euro25 might be slim too, but they could easily reach half that if the economy shows signs of recovery.

[draiocht23]

You owed me that for my comments in another thread on people getting up at different times - hence leading to repeated news headlines. Something you were wondering about.

My point is that the chances of the aforementioned banks going bust are surely very slim. Also, the chances of them reaching them highs such as euro25 might be slim too, but they could easily reach half that if the economy shows signs of recovery.

I've never bought shares in anything but I wouldn't be starting with Irish banks any time soon. If NAMA goes ahead banks will have to write down billions in loans and if, as expected, the government becomes a majority shareholder (aka:nationalises the banks) it's going to be a long time before banks recover.

LOANS transferred from the main banks to the new National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) could be written down by up to 30%, senior government figures believe...

A 15% write-down as suggested by Davy would mean banks having about €13bn of their capital wiped out. A 25% 'haircut' on the loans would result in bank capital being depleted by around €22bn, while the figure for 30% would be a €27b...

If the write-downs were to end up in the region of 30% then the government will have little option but to nationalise most of the banking sector, although Bacon last week said he preferred to use the term "majority control" rather than nationalisation".

Write down of toxic loans could cost banks up to ?27bn

[Bobert]

Short term trading no, long term yes. That said, I'll sell you INM...

[Kev408]

Mmmm..I may stay away from bank shares with my massive euro500 investment. Still, the only difference between betting on a poker machine and playing the markets is a shirt and tie. If I do buy shares I'll make sure to be wearing my 1970s denims.

[Kev408]

Short term trading no, long term yes. That said, I'll sell you INM...

Hang on to them for now, Bobster.

[draiocht23]

Hang on to them for now, Bobster.

He doesn't have much of a choice...!

[Bobert]

Print media is ********************ed. Unless INM start to branch into digital they'll go bust.

[draiocht23]

Print media is ********************ed. Unless INM start to branch into digital they'll go bust.

Their Irish titles are profitable - it's Sir Tony's international vanity project that have the company up sh1t creek.