House prices still falling - Daft.ie

[Digout]

Oh dear oh dear oh dear, seems Tom Parlon's idea that its a great time to buy a house because the market has "bottomed out" is not backed up by the data from daft.ie. Prices are still crashing, asking prices in Dublin are already down 10% in the last quarter.

From the report :

Asking prices for residential property fell 4.2% in the first three months of 2009.

The average asking price nationally in March 2009 was €281,000, 16% lower than last year.

The national average asking price now stands at €281,000, a fall of almost €63,000 from the peak in mid 2007.

Commenting on the report findings, Ronan Lyons, economist at Daft.ie said

While oversupply remains significant, with over 60,000 homes for sale around the country, one encouraging sign is that the stock of property available for sale has fallen about 5% since its peak in October 2008.

Lets look and the bright side, it would have been a lot worse if we did not get this "soft-landing".

Dr. Liam Delaney introduces the Daft Report

[HanleyS]

Until the land registry is permitted to publish price information we have no accurate information on market prices.

[TradCat]

As there are no conceivable circumstances in which Parlon would not say it was a good time to buy, his opinion is worthless.

[Outlander]

Wait until the real flood of houses hits the market - when the redundancy money runs out in middle income land.

[Digout]

The guy from Daft was just on Newstalk, he reckoned its going to keep falling for the rest of the year. Cowen and ahern are laughing at everybody who bought overpriced shoe boxes over the last 5 years.

[slx]

I can't see how anyone in their right mind would consider that the market has bottomed out. There's a gross over supply. Try driving around some of the most recently built housing estates and apartment blocks, they're all empty! There are also a lot of places not renting too, so I assume you're going to see private landlords trying to sell up. There simply aren't as many people around as lots and lots of people who were here for the building boom have returned, or are returning home.

I know quite a few poles and others who have gone home or elsewhere, or are planning their next move. They're certainly not keen on staying here as they don't see any prospect of picking up work in the sectors they can work in. Many of them are well qualified, and were working in relatively unskilled jobs here. So, quite a few are contemplating moves to places like Germany (many speak German as a second language) etc Others used their earnings here to set-up home in Poland, and are now happy enough to go back home and start living. Their wages here bought sites, houses and apartments. Not as investments, but much like the Irish in the 1950s/60s who went working in the UK and elsewhere, they built extensions, new houses etc. Working here produced enough cash to kick start their lives back home.

Prices haven't dropped as low as they might as people are not in a position where they're forced to sell. So, they're holding on in the hope that somehow things will return to 2007 levels.

The issue won't, at least initially, be middle income people, it's going to be developers. There are a hell of a lot of units sitting mothballed hoping for a price rise. However, once the banks and investors start to seek more than an interest-only payment, those will have to hit the market to generate cash.
I'd say you're going to see a lot of these companies being wound-up and liquidated.

The 'lalalala it's not happening' mode will come to an end and the prices will come down further. There are simply no fundamentals there to support these prices.

I would predict a slide in prices back to about 2001/2 levels, if not even a bit further.

Hopefully, we might end up with a nice stable house market, with sane prices in 10 years time.

We certainly have enough stock there to supply us for quite a long time!

[Scorpio]

Over on the pin, Ronan from daft is discussing a 33% fall in closing prices, if asking prices have fallen 18% since the peak: Daft Report Q1 | thepropertypin.com

He's also given a commentary here which is much more in-depth than the press release:
Irish house prices fall 4% since the start of 2009 - latest daft.ie report | Ronan Lyons Blog
Talks about two scenarios for house prices - one where we become a nation of renters and the other, where we're left largely unchanged psychologically, but instead property prices are tied to domestic and international developments.

[Dios]

And in related news, rental stock has grown by approximately the same amount as stock for sale has reduced.

[Scorpio]

And in related news, rental stock has grown by approximately the same amount as stock for sale has reduced.

Not quite - compare the sales stock chart here, Dr. Liam Delaney introduces the Daft Report, with the rental stock chart here, Gerard O'Neill introduces the Daft Report.

About half of the 30,000 extra homes have turned up on the rental market. Which has meant a trebling of stock to rent. But rents are only down 10% so far or so... I think we all know how that's going to pan out!

[Dios]

Not quite - compare the sales stock chart here, Dr. Liam Delaney introduces the Daft Report, with the rental stock chart here, Gerard O'Neill introduces the Daft Report.

About half of the 30,000 extra homes have turned up on the rental market. Which has meant a trebling of stock to rent. But rents are only down 10% so far or so... I think we all know how that's going to pan out!

Ah I know, just saying that the positive isn't so positive. Its not a direct 1:1 relationship. Thanks for the more precise info though.