I think this sentence from the BBC sums up the fact that 'experts' are as clueless as the rest of us when it comes to predicting the economy:
BBC NEWS | Business | Record decline hits Irish economyOriginally Posted by BBC
Is anyone brave enough to admit they don't whats happening or whats going to happen?
(meanwhile, Ireland's Trade Surplus is up. Its not all bad news - http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/...breaking38.htm)
Last edited by seabhcan; 27th March 2009 at 12:48 PM.
"Who will bailout the IMF after FF is finished with them?"
Well Lenihan finally admitted he does not have a clue whats going on.
Comparing part of his job like forecasting the weather.
This is absurb in the extreme.
Every since the October budget the majority of economists have ridiculed the government figures.
When the govt was predicting -2% most were saying -6% when the govt are now saying 6% it will be probably be -10%.
The €25bn deficit was signalled at the start of the year but the govt refused to believe it.
Things have been changing for the worse but the govt are still months behind what is happening.
Well, all we know is that the economy will more than likely decline by less than 100% within 6 months.
Other than that, most of these figures are utter nonsense.
It is my understanding that expectations are expected to exceed the revised expected levels that have been predicted in recent months and that should these expectations come to pass that we can expect significant revisions in the figures for expectations going forward.
Dan Sullivan. I was back but we still couldn't all have a vote.
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The economists are so far out because of Ireland's culture of business secrecy.
The Irish economy is 90% tied to property prices, in various ways.
What are ACTUAL property prices, not asking prices? Nobody knows except the banks and the Revenue, and they're saying nothing.
So economists have to work with "guesstimates".
That's what happens when you hide relevant information from the experts.
When you see the words "Mises" or "Hayek" in someone's post, just ask yourself: do I really want to ban paper money and go back to gold?
You have to pity the kind of people who buy into conspiracy theories. I find the following to be the saddest words on the internet: "Re: connection between Bilderberg puppet lady gaga and viral outbreak in ukraine "
That post exceded all my expections
Government forecasts have the severe disadvantage of having to be based in currently available facts, trends and figures, these facts, trends and figures are always out of date for the purpose of forecasting by the time they are usable.
Commentators have the advantage of making "guesstimates" off the top of their heads, which are more accurate...
"She'll hold together. Hear me, baby? Hold together!"
Dell has knocked a huge hole in our exports but most of the high value pharmaceutical and software companies are in reasonable shape. The problem is that while these companies make up a big portion of our exports, they do not employ huge numbers directly and because they are not expanding, the spinoff is not what it used to be. Our workforce is unbalanced - most people work in the domestic market but our real wealth is generated by the exporting companies.
If engineers were wrong as often as economists, would anyone fly aeroplanes?
We're running a massive trade surplus at the moment. Up 14% in recent months. Its because we've reduced our imports of consumer goods.
"Who will bailout the IMF after FF is finished with them?"
Yay at least by one economic schools thoughts our economy is going great. Too bad it's not been in use since the 18th century. (mercantilism)
"She'll hold together. Hear me, baby? Hold together!"
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