BRIC'S overtake G7 by 2027 - Newsweek

[bananarepublic.ie]

Power Up


What's called a 'global' recession is in fact shrinking economies mainly in the West, not the East.

Power is not only shifting toward the BRICs, but among them as well. For all their outspokenness, Brazil and Russia have been hit much harder by the crisis than India and China. Dependent on sales of commodities that are shrinking rapidly in price, Russia's economy has fallen off a cliff, and could shrink 3 percent this year. Brazil will likely stagnate. Their recoveries could be slow and painful, too. Goldman Sachs projections for the period from 2011 to 2050 show Russia growing at just 2.8 percent, Brazil at 4.3 percent, China at 5.2 and India at 6.3. If those figures turn out to be correct, three of the top four economies in the world—China, the U.S., India and Japan, in that order—would be Asian within the next two decades. The Asian Century is almost here.

The BRICs are better positioned to recover than their richer peers. Broadly speaking, better control of inflation, lower deficits, increasing productivity, richer social programs and greater political stability have given the emerging giants greater room for error at a time when the macro-economic environment in rich countries has been deteriorating.

What's more, the BRICs have learned from our follies. Strong regulatory oversight allowed the Indian and Chinese financial sectors to emerge relatively unscathed from the credit crisis. Through the first half of 2008 (the most recent available data), Chinese banks were acquiring foreign rivals and increasing their share of global financial markets. If that continues, a Deutsche Bank report released last week predicts, China will become one of the dominant financial markets in the world by 2018, alongside the U.S. and the EU, with a 13 percent share in global bond markets, 40 percent of equity markets and 18 percent of global banking.

this is sesmic shift, both India and china growing rapidly...We have seen china sending man to space, followed by Olympics, India sending probe to moon along with 8 other developed countries instrucments, IT services, Textiles and NANO car today. Taking eye over preimum westren brands Jag/land rover. Now another indian company eyeing at LDV vechicles... We are in very interesting times ahead..

I think this is most cruscial world history in my living life,

1) Fall of Berlin Wall
2) Fall of Communisum
3) The recession
4) raise of china and India

[MortgageBroker]

i'm not saying that none of this will happen, but i met an old investment banker and he was telling me with a grin that in the early 70's everybody was touting brazil as the next US, all the figures/demographics/export/growth etc. were there.

rome wasn't built in a day, nor did it fall in a day, how many people said X would happen by 2010? the fact is that by 2027 the person who wrote that story will probably be wrong or retired.

[fionnmccool]

What is the value of projections anyway ? The Irish economy was supposed to have been projected to grow at 4% or thereabouts indefinitely. Thats what our government with intellectual arrogance or laziness based all its plans around. Look where we are now. When looking at a curve into an unknown zone , its the laziest thing to simply extend it into a straight line as though nothing unpredictable is going to happen.

[142857]

i'm not saying that none of this will happen, but i met an old investment banker and he was telling me with a grin that in the early 70's everybody was touting brazil as the next US, all the figures/demographics/export/growth etc. were there.

rome wasn't built in a day, nor did it fall in a day, how many people said X would happen by 2010? the fact is that by 2027 the person who wrote that story will probably be wrong or retired.

Right. A projection may have some validity and reasoning... but if there's one thing you can count on, it's for the unexpected to happen, and change everything.

[Dios]

Theres a lot in that projection which is way out of touch with reality. First of all this: "Strong regulatory oversight allowed the Indian and Chinese financial sectors to emerge relatively unscathed from the credit crisis. " is interesting, since the credit crisis is just getting warmed up.

The Chinese place a great emphasis on national prestige projects, such as the Olympics and manned spaceflight, but this is not indicative of general social and economic conditions. Its what they have been calling a "benevolent dictatorship", which only works as long as there is a perception of increasing general wellbeing. The vast majority of Chinese workers are living below subsistence wages in western terms, with an unbelievably poor quality of life, while what middle class there is will be getting very restless at continued redundancies and the lack of places for college graduates. Plus they are coming down off a thirty year boom, thats never going to be easy.

Their currency is still semi pegged to the US dollar which in association with their low wages allows them to be massive exporters, especially to the US, so again I'm unsure how the reporter managed to view them as a major financial market. There were moves earlier this year to allow the yuan to be traded abroad, but that may be scaled back in view of the crisis. However they want to play it, there have been increasingly strong demands for their currency to be freely traded by US senators, backed up by threats of sanctions, so expect exports from China to get more costly soon.

As for India, 390 million people still live on $1 a day or less. The massive inequality, caste system extant in many areas, and grinding poverty overshadow the media friendly moonshot.

Its relatively easy to push out headline grabbing projects when your population isn't being looked after as it is in western societies, but ultimately that population will demand its share of the pie, a spectacle which oriental nations have't faced yet, as it is equally easy to have high gdp growth when you start from nothing.

[Dillinger]

The Asians are hard working feckers, so if it does happen, fair play to them. Goldman Sachs are usually spot on, they sold their European Property Portfolios about 3 years ago, before it all went tits up, and our lads started saying "no one saw this coming", gombeens !!.

[bananarepublic.ie]

Theres a lot in that projection which is way out of touch with reality. First of all this: "Strong regulatory oversight allowed the Indian and Chinese financial sectors to emerge relatively unscathed from the credit crisis. " is interesting, since the credit crisis is just getting warmed up.

The Chinese place a great emphasis on national prestige projects, such as the Olympics and manned spaceflight, but this is not indicative of general social and economic conditions. Its what they have been calling a "benevolent dictatorship", which only works as long as there is a perception of increasing general wellbeing. The vast majority of Chinese workers are living below subsistence wages in western terms, with an unbelievably poor quality of life, while what middle class there is will be getting very restless at continued redundancies and the lack of places for college graduates. Plus they are coming down off a thirty year boom, thats never going to be easy.

Why do you think we still have hangover from Rugby victory?? Because its national euphoria. Small 4 mn has this happiness imagine 1bn people you really think of olympics...

Still england celebrating because they one world cup 196X.:mrgreen:

Dictatorship, human rights, tibet will their burning issue. But would you stop buying chinese goods? no body would. West needs "Cheap" china goods, end the story.. ppl dont give s...te when it comes wallet.. Who cares China has dictorship, whether i can get that gadget "Now" or not, thats alll matter for Westren markets.

There is no "Christmas" with out china as far as i know. :mrgreen:

Coming to UK olympics, their opening ceremony will just red arrows fly over followed yobbish teengers pushing their prams in synchrosing fashion and lit the up the flame. [Given their Zimbambwen economical principles and the overall shape of economy].. cant wait..

Their currency is still semi pegged to the US dollar which in association with their low wages allows them to be massive exporters, especially to the US, so again I'm unsure how the reporter managed to view them as a major financial market. There were moves earlier this year to allow the yuan to be traded abroad, but that may be scaled back in view of the crisis. However they want to play it, there have been increasingly strong demands for their currency to be freely traded by US senators, backed up by threats of sanctions, so expect exports from China to get more costly soon.

US - China need each other. But dont like each other. Look at skemerishes in south china sea last few weeks. But still they are largest trading partners. Trade is trade.

US is biggest consumer in the world no doubt in that. China rapidly expanding into Africa, South America and on top given the domestic market. There is 99% of toys come from China world wide. Not just US? have ever seen where all the consumer goods made? I expected bit knowledge from you.. didnt see this coming ..

As for India, 390 million people still live on $1 a day or less. The massive inequality, caste system extant in many areas, and grinding poverty overshadow the media friendly moonshot.

Every eejit in the world come up with this same stats no matter what ever you say. very funny... Media is free, there is more media out lets then population of limerick. :mrgreen: Media, govt. doesnt brush it away like china. "Grinding" poverty is there it wont goaway in over night, it takes may 60 or 50 yrs. But Indian i did case study "Satyam" well know outsourcing gaint, fiddled with balance sheet with help of "Westren" PWC with in days govt. moved out saved put the CEO in jail. Despite CEO is powerful enough law is law. PWC under review from ICA. yeah 390mn people poverty .. so what culprits are in jail. Not playing like golf like our state affiars.


This is good example of regulation.

I think it makes very happy if smug from donates few shellings to so call "developing country" feels they have place next mother theresssa.

Its relatively easy to push out headline grabbing projects when your population isn't being looked after as it is in western societies, but ultimately that population will demand its share of the pie, a spectacle which oriental nations have't faced yet, as it is equally easy to have high gdp growth when you start from nothing.

Let me see headline projects, buying MG rover, whopping 2tn US doller assets, 30% avg savings, buying premium brands, 4, 5th largest public railway network, biggest armies (but dont interested to find WMD's in some desert) ...

At least they have ambition not like us "Property based revenues and economy".

[Dios]

Why do you think we still have hangover from Rugby victory?? Because its national euphoria. Small 4 mn has this happiness imagine 1bn people you really think of olympics...

Eh you don't need to tell me, there was an internet cafe in Galway that was called e2008, run by Chinese and set up in 2003 in celebration of the olympics. How and ever, that does not indicate broader social change.

Dictatorship, human rights, tibet will their burning issue. But would you stop buying chinese goods? no body would. West needs "Cheap" china goods, end the story..

Protective tariffs exist in the EU against a wide variety of Chinese goods, textiles and footwear for example. The west has been doing without Chinese goods for longer than you think. I mean I get that there are many other products assembled in China which are sold on the western markets, but its not as widespread as you might think. How and ever:

• The Chinese currency has been pegged to the USD for a long time. This makes them artificially cheap, and the US doesn't like that, and will impose actual sanctions if its not traded freely.
• Improving social conditions mean a larger middle class, which means the "benevolent dictatorship" won't be benevolent for long, as people gain enough free time and money to take an interest in the government. This pattern has been repeated over and over. Even with that China is far from a first world nation.
• And the last nail in the coffin of China becoming the next superpower, they are facing a demographic time bomb due to their one child policy. All those old people need to be looked after, it makes the baby boomers look like a flutter down the bookies.

China rapidly expanding into Africa, South America and on top given the domestic market. There is 99% of toys come from China world wide. Not just US? have ever seen where all the consumer goods made?

China isn't selling in those third world countries, merely taking resources. As for where consumer goods come from, Germany is the largest exporter in the world, not China.

Every eejit in the world come up with this same stats no matter what ever you say.

And you never asked yourself why that was? Its an extraordinarily painful process, as well as expensive, to move from a country in India's situation to say that of the UK. The costs aren't just once off, they are ongoing. It will take more than a few newspapers to make that happen.

Let me see headline projects, buying MG rover, whopping 2tn US doller assets, 30% avg savings, buying premium brands, 4, 5th largest public railway network, biggest armies (but dont interested to find WMD's in some desert)

Again you have confused headline projects with the general well being of the economy and the state. And while we're talking about armies, India is a nuclear state, sitting next to another nuclear state, with whom it has had wars in the past and has border skirmishes now. Not such a great place for a supposed future world power to be.

[seabhcan]

I was in China recently on business.

They are fecked worse than us.

[Clanrickard]

I was in China recently on business.

They are fecked worse than us.

They are screwed. The doom of the West has been prophisised many times. If you look at the industrial revolution and the information/IT revolution they happened in countries (the UK and US) that not only had free markets but free democratic open societies. China will never ever ever catch up to the West as long as they remain a communist dictatorship. It is no coincidence that the G7 are all free market liberal democracies. It is the value systems they have that make them rich and prosperous. China and Russia will make the grade but Brazil and India could. Personally I hope the US and the EU strive with all their might to ensure that reprehensible thugocracies like China and Russia are kept in check because the world doesn't need another Soviet Union type superpower.