Sindo Fallacy: "Lower end of property market picking up"

[myk]

'Lower-end' house sales up as young buyers lured by price fall - National News, Frontpage - Independent.ie

The Sindo is continuing its attempt to talk up the housing market and slavishly serve its paymasters in the property sector.

First-time buyers are coming back to the housing market as they try to make the most of the major bargains to be found.

With prices down between 20 and 40 per cent in some cases, younger buyers are being tempted back in the dream of owning a house that would have been well beyond their price range even 12 months ago.

According to industry sources, the level of activity at the lower end of the market has increased significantly since January 1, with sales of houses under €500,000 up about 15 per cent on last year.

can anyone else see the fallacy here?

without showing figures about sales levels in the rest of the market the above information is meaningless.

The Sindo claim there is an increase of 15% of houses selling below 15%. But this doesn't necessarily represent a boost in house sales. These sales could just be properties that would have previously been valued at above Euro500,000.

So the overall level of house sales could be falling compared with last year, but with prices dramatically falling significantly as well it could boost the number of houses selling at the under Euro500,000 level. So this would represent two bad news trends in the housing sector (for sellers and agents), but the Sindo are spinning it as good news.

[HanleyS]

This is just another example of estate agents exploiting the asymetry of market information. Estate agents and other property shills that bear a large proportion of the responsibility for destroying our economic competitiveness cannot be trusted. By extension the Sindo, if you didn't know already, cannot be trusted. It like the Irish Times and other elements of the main stream media have been corrupted by a decade of abundant property market derived advertising revenue. Like I said on another thread recently, these shills should have a sense of shame and have the common decency to p1ss off out of Ireland. We have a similarly afflicted government who are beholden to interests in the property sector that destroyed us. This is why they will never act to remove this asymetry of market information and I think it will come down to a grassroots movement to bring about a mechanism for breaking the stranglehold.

[FutureTaoiseach]

Reminds me of the tactics being used to imply a swing to the yes camp on Lisbon. I don't trust the Sindo on this matter either. "Industry sources" got us into this mess in the first place. They are not worthy of credibility. To my mind, house prices remain insanely high in this country and will have to fall at least another 50% to return the market to equilibrium.

[McDave]

Only a fool would believe the market proper is picking up. However, it's possible that there's a temporary activity blip in the current fire-sales of M50-rim apartments and housing estates. If the prices I've seen in the full-page ads in the property supplements are for real, they'd be quite attractive for plenty of first-timers. The coming weeks will tell if they're actually biting at these levels.

Undoubtedly there's a heave going on as developers cut losses and banks crystallise substantial property volumes at values acceptable enough to them.

[Dare to Dream]

perhaps they are just afraid that the stamp duty will be altered in the upcoming budget?

[perprojustice]

Their ads are dropping big time. They need to get the property guys advertising again. having said that I believe that the lower end of the car industry is picking up.

[perprojustice]

I do not think the times are going down that road

They report that the property 'crisis' has now changed to a property 'crash'

Irish property price guide 2009

[HanleyS]

Undoubtedly there's a heave going on as developers cut losses and banks crystallise substantial property volumes at values acceptable enough to them.

Evidence of such wholesale activity, please?!?

[Dios]

having said that I believe that the lower end of the car industry is picking up.

The car industry is done for the foreseeable future, which is no great loss as its not really an industry but a cartel of middle men. With the UK engaging in QE, the exchange rate between the euro and the pound is going to get very favourable in the next couple of years for anyone that wants to take a run across the border.

Evidence of such wholesale activity, please?!?

Local authorities recently have been spending a quarter to a third of their entire budget on social and affordable housing. Galway CC fell short by some huge whopping number (specifically for social and affordable housing) at the start of last year, and this year are a further €15 million in the hole, but this time central government won't be able to bail them out.

Its a ridiculous, ludicrous scandal. The only people who will take these properties off developers and specuvestors are their buddies in the councils.

[YellowRedGreen]

Lack of clear market information acts only to the benefit of those vested interests who need volume of transactions to keep their overpriced commissions coming in. I went onto the esri website to see what the last index said. Interestingly I found the following quote..

Please note 3 Bed Semi price index is currently not available due to the low sample size.

'Nuff said I suspect.