Not really.Originally Posted by Ramon21
The IMF's prediction is useless. Britain is screwed but this is a non-story. Loads of other reports say Ireland is the worst off country of the whole lot, much worse off than Britain. (In fact, our own government can be inferred to have acknowledged such)
We'll have to see how it all plays out. We're going through a paradigm change; anyone who predicts the little details of individual countries in the endgame is a snake oil salesman.
We're in a worse state than britain
“Banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies.” - Thomas Jefferson
Maybe ireland is, but the mainland-europe isn't.
So if ireland is in trouble we will probably bail it out.
So no nobody in the euro-zone is in a worse state than britain.
Still, even as the investor consensus ravages the euro, it's worth remembering that the same herd instinct not long ago was pronouncing last rites for the dollar. Last year, as China's central bank chief called for a new global currency and Russian central bankers dumped greenbacks to buy euros, many saw the dollar's decline as inevitable. Now, the dollar is riding high, and the euro looks bedraggled.
"Views might change very quickly"
Given the biggest personal debt in the world and that 1/3 person debt is property. IMF predictions are not surprise. They dont have much cash left in their pockets unless Mr Genious Brown bail them in whole sale.IMF: Britain will be last to recover
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I'm not sure that Ireland is in a worse state that Britain.
Unemployment is higher - for now, this is still largely construction related and as a knock-on effect of weak Sterling.
There's a huge hole in our public finances, but it's largely caused by a rather odd tax system that was totally dependent on property, not by a substantially worse economic position or outlook.
With a rejig of our taxation system we should survive.
The UK however risks a currency collapse and it's highly exposed to the financial sector, far more so than we are
The City of London is to the UK what housing was to Ireland.
I'm not convinced that the UK can pull out of this one.
The enormous scale of private (non-secured) debt is worrying and if the public purse starts to empty, there isn't really scope to hike taxes. They already tax quite heavily compared to Ireland, which doesn't even have property taxes etc.
I have already seen signs of serious inflation over there too. I noticed some electrical goods had shot up by 20-30%. Clearly what's happening is that supply contracts (signed in sterling) are being renegotiated and inventories are now beginning to run out. Eurozone and other overseas suppliers won't be able to take a hit anymore.
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