13k per household

[recession dude]

As far as I can see, the budget deficit is going to settle down about 20bn. Low tax takes might tend to increase it, but at the same time it now contains a lot of capital expenditure that will probably be postponed.

A deficit of about 4 - 5 bn is probably allowable in the medium term - the 3% rule applying to only current expenditure (I think?).

There's about 1.2 million household in the state (again correct me if I'm wrong)

So - whether its through reduced spending or increased taxation - the take from each household in the country is going to be about 13k pa.

This can't include lost income (in the private sector) however. That doesn't serve to improve state finances. It only includes taxes and/or payments from the state - be it welfare, salary or pension. Its only an average of course, but the high earners won't reduce this amount very much for the rest of us, and the low earners can't. So middle earners can expect a loss of about 13k pa over the next 3-5 years


Anybody care to correct me. and tell me why it's not quite that bad. I'd love it if you could.

[Jefferson9115]

SHUT IT and PAY IT simple as...

[recession dude]

SHUT IT and PAY IT simple as...

Eh, thanks for that.

(this is a Discussion board isn't it?)

[Dios]

The long and the short of it is if we push base rate to 40% and marginal taxes to 61%, we'll be breaking even. We can't do that however as it would bankrupt too many people, since private sector debt is at an all time high. Got us coming and going really.

I'm not sure what that other poster was talking about, things have gotten a bit peculiar around here in the last week or two, just nonsense posts dropped into threads for no reason.

[pfkf]

there are 1.8 million homes in the state

[EarlyBird]

there are 1.8 million homes in the state

There is a difference between a home and a household. Their may well be 1.8 million homes but they are not all occupied.

[recession dude]

The long and the short of it is if we push base rate to 40% and marginal taxes to 61%, we'll be breaking even. We can't do that however as it would bankrupt too many people, since private sector debt is at an all time high. Got us coming and going really.

I'm not sure what that other poster was talking about, things have gotten a bit peculiar around here in the last week or two, just nonsense posts dropped into threads for no reason.

What's the take per percentage point at the base rate and at the marginal rate?

In the absence of any government info on this, I'm trying to figure my personal/family hit over the next few years.

there's also been a lot of talk about property taxes, but they seem endlessly awkward to me in terms of collection and the politics of it. But with falling oil/gas prices, surely there's never been a better time to come up with a carbon tax. The hit will be big for each family, but no bigger than the rises oevr the last few years have been, and as we're all used to paying at the pumps already, the resentment level would be relatively low.

But how much sould they raise? How much would c20 a litre create?

[Dios]

In the absence of any government info on this, I'm trying to figure my personal/family hit over the next few years.

Purely pulled out of me bum, I'd say we're looking at 5% rise on base and 6% on marginal, for the next few years anyway. Any less than that and the effects will be minimal, any more and there will be revolts. We'll still be running a heavy deficit until someone faces down the unions though, so maybe another rise in a few years time. Taxes on second and subsequent properties are eminently enforceable however.

[atlantic]

If you take 20 billion and divide by 2 million workers its around 10 grand for each worker

[recession dude]

If you take 20 billion and divide by 2 million workers its around 10 grand for each worker

I think though that the 20 bn might be just a touch pessimistic. That includes a lot of capital expenditure which can be postponed, and we can still run at a 3% deficit, which is close to 2bn. So if we cut, say, 4bn and run a deficit we have to come up with 14bn, which is still 7 grand a head but not quite so bad.

But this is only money which is transferred to the state. This doesn't count money lost through the recession - lost income inthe private sector.