Predictions about global recession fizzling out Q4 2009, a bluff?

[st333ve]

No US Recession By End Of 2009? | Daily Markets


The Congressional Budget Office predicted that the current economic recession will end in the second half of 2009 without the trillion dollar stimulus.
From The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2009 to 2019


http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/20...d-in-2009.html

"Given that the USA is further through its recessionary cycle than other economies, it is likely that they will emerge from their recession before other parts of the world. The country also has the capacity to spend its way out of this recession. Given the massive fiscal stimulus planned by the new Obama administration, this could pull the US out of recession by the middle of 2009"



"The UK is likely to be one of the last developed countries to come out of the global downturn. It faces a number of problems that will prolong the correction in the economy. For one the UK economy relies heavily upon global finance as a proportion of GDP and as an employer. Therefore with this sector in chaos the economy has been hit hard..."

So as it stands here are my forecasts for when recession will end (i.e. first quarter of positive growth):

USA - Q3 2009

eurozone - Q4 2009

Japan - Q4 2009

UK - Q1 2010

When will the global recession end?Economy and jobs market | Economic impact on career success | whatwilltheyask.com
When will the global recession end | Outlook for global economy 2009 | whatwilltheyask.com


"I see the real GDP growth contraction playing out through the year as follows: first quarter 2009: -5%; second quarter 2009: -4%; third quarter 2009: -2.5%; fourth quarter 2009: -1%--"

A Global Breakdown Of The Recession In 2009 - Forbes.com

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Are these optimistic predictions or complete lies that are being thrown around to boost confidence?

Put your predictions here for future reference.

I personally would expect this recession to last atleast another 2 years, i couldnt imagine the economy growing by the end of the year when its in such freefall at the moment.

[jpc]

The dust will only be settling then.
The depression is only starting world wide.
If I had to put a time when things will start to improve to any extent worldwide
End 2012.
At that point maybe there will be some demand to restock on capital goods which are worn out.

[20000miles]

On the other hand you have hardcore Keynesians like Paul Krugman who are claiming that the fiscal "stimuli" won't work becuase they're too small!

Personally, I think we're looking at Great Depression/Lost Decade #2.

[st333ve]

So many economic journalists are predicting the end of 2009/ start of 2010, do they think people are really so stupid?

The nets full of the same predictions, i'd like to be proven wrong but 2010 isnt going to be any better than 2009 and realistically i dont believe looking any further than 2010 accurately is even possible.