Public Finances 2009 Thread

[droghedasouth]

March figures just available.

]A deterioration of:
1.4 billion (January 2008 747 surplus goes to 630 deficit for January 2009) from last year in just one month.
2.21 billion in two months
3.37 billion in 3 months. (corrected was 3.03)

January could be partially "explained" by stripping out say 600 million(wild guess -someone please improve) for the reduction in car sales in January.
So on the basis of three months we are looking at a 13.2 (corrected was 11.2) billion decline relative to 2008.
Time to start thinking of a 24.5 billion deficit at the end of the year as the opening figure for Minister Lenihan on April 7th..

Government can't delay anymore, but Clowen and Co. will not do anything like enough at the end of the month; they (and Clowen in particular) are psychologically incapable of addressing the problems. They might at least stay home and cancel their various Paddy's day junkets

Tax revenues down 23% for first quarter (confirms 2 month trend of 24%) compared to Jan-Mar. 2008 is still beyond belief.
Income tax now down for 3 months at 6.6% (was 8% for Jan-Feb.)in spite of including the income levies (did the public service pension levy kick in?) shows how deep the crisis is. It is not just that people have stopped spending; the money is just not there to be spent. No wonder VAT is down 18.3%

[kerrynorth]

March figures just available.

]A deterioration of:
1.4 billion (January 2008 747 surplus goes to 630 deficit for January 2009) from last year in just one month.
2.21 billion in two months
3.03 billion in 3 months.

January could be partially "explained" by stripping out say 600 million(wild guess -someone please improve) for the reduction in car sales in January.
So on the basis of three months we are looking at a 11.2 billion decline relative to 2008.
Time to start thinking of a 22.5 billion deficit at the end of the year as the opening figure for Minister Lenihan on April 7th..

Government can't delay anymore, but Clowen and Co. will not do anything like enough at the end of the month; they (and Clowen in particular) are psychologically incapable of addressing the problems. They might at least stay home and cancel their various Paddy's day junkets

Tax revenues down 23% for first quarter (confirms 2 month trend of 24%) compared to Jan-Mar. 2008 is still beyond belief.
Income tax now down for 3 months at 6.6% (was 8% for Jan-Feb.)in spite of including the income levies (did the public service pension levy kick in?) shows how deep the crisis is. It is not just that people have stopped spending; the money is just not there to be spent. No wonder VAT is down 18.3%

The figures I have are for a €3.72billion deficit in March which is a €3.37billion deterioration in the first quarter. Tax revenue is down €2.6billion in the first quarter.
http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/...xcheqmar09.pdf

[droghedasouth]

The figures I have are for a €3.72billion deficit in March which is a €3.37billion deterioration in the first quarter. Tax revenue is down €2.6billion in the first quarter.
http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/...xcheqmar09.pdf

OMG - you are right. I was looking at current account.

Will have to look back at Jan and february just to make sure the figures are consistent.

Thanks for correction.

KN - I see they have changed the presentation to show
Surplus/Deficit on current a/c
and
Suplus/Deficit on capital a/s
As well as
Exchequer Surplus/Deficit.

Is there any value in the additional figures?

[kerrynorth]

OMG - you are right. I was looking at current account.

Will have to look back at Jan and february just to make sure the figures are consistent.

Thanks for correction.

KN - I see they have changed the presentation to show
Surplus/Deficit on current a/c
and
Suplus/Deficit on capital a/s
As well as
Exchequer Surplus/Deficit.

Is there any value in the additional figures?

None really.

The two standout items in the 1st quarter are Capital Gains Tax down from €546million to just €162million, capital gains and transactions seem to have just ground to a halt as asset values collapse and also some people are offseting capital losses against any gains.

Secondly, the cost of Servicing the National Debt is starting to rocket, up from €138million to €298million.

I could also be very cheeky and mention that our contribution to the EU Budget is down about 10% (from €605m to €547m) as part of the budget is based upon the VAT base and remitting (the falling) Customs Duties.

[droghedasouth]

44% drop in corporation tax which goes from about 7.4% of revenue to 5.4% of revenue will have the larger EU Ministries of Finance indulging in a little bit of schadenfreude.

[droghedasouth]

using the April figures just available.

A deterioration of:
1.4 billion (January 2008 747 surplus goes to 630 deficit for January 2009) from last year in just one month.
2.21 billion in two months
3.37 billion in 3 months. (corrected was 3.03)
3.57 billion in 4 months.

January could be partially "explained" by stripping out say 600 million(wild guess -someone please improve) for the reduction in car sales in January.
So on the basis of four months we are looking at a 10.7 billion decline relative to 2008. The EU estimate for the final outcome for 2009 looks more likely.


Tax revenues down 24% for four months is in line with 23% for first quarter (confirms 2 month trend of 24%) compared to Jan-Apr. 2008 is still beyond belief.

Income tax now down for 6.0% for 4 months (was 6.6% for 3 months at 6.6%, and 8% for Jan-Feb.) shows that in spite of including the income levies just how deep the crisis is.

VAT is now down cumulatively 21.4% compared to 18.3% for the first 3 months. This is probably the most shocking figure.
I suspect that many retailers under increasing bank pressure are holding back some of their VAT payments.