The Euro - PIGS to fly?

[mollox]

Interesting piece from Jim O’Leary of NUI Maynooth in today’s Irish Times on the possibility of Ireland leaving the Euro, and looking at the practical and political consequences of doing so.
(He says that the question about leaving the Eurozone is being asked about Portugal, Ireland, Greece & Spain – and has spawned the acronym PIGS – hence the thread title.)

Abandoning euro is a nil sum game - The Irish Times - Fri, Jan 23, 2009

O’Leary argues that reversion to the Irish Punt, followed by devaluation, would leave us open to massive currency speculation, rather than giving us the competitive export advantage which would be the primary objective of such a move.

O’Leary’s key conclusion:
“The balance of the argument so far is tilted heavily against renouncing the euro, so heavily as to render the idea academic.
And that’s before factoring in the political considerations, which are compelling in their own right. A decision to leave the euro zone would be a repudiation of such a core element of the European project it would run the risk of expulsion from the EU.”

However, O’Leary does add:
“A strong case can be made for the proposition that the economy would not be in the parlous state it’s now in were it not for our adoption of the euro in 1999: we would not have experienced a property/construction boom of the magnitude that we experienced and we would not now be enduring a recession as severe as the current downturn.
There are grounds, therefore, as David McWilliams has suggested, for seeking special EU assistance to get us through our current and prospective problems. But the grounds for threatening to leave the euro should such a request be turned down are thin and treacherous.”

Looks like Jim isn’t a big fan of David’s latest brainstorm.

[The Earl of Desmond]

If we leave the Euro we might as well leave the EU.

Why can't we just accept we are in the Euro and while we have lost control over some things we still control everything else and despite how we like to kid ourselves most of this mess is entirely of our own making and the solution lies with us as well.

We're like spolit children demanding to be treated like adults and then first sign of trouble run home for a handout from the folks.

Time to be adults and stand on our own two feet.

[ballot stuffer]

"Hey Europe thanks for the property boom and the structural funds, but times are tough so we are going to leave the Euro. We'd love to stay around stick it out but we'd rather use beggar thy neighbor tactics to prop up our exports for the short term. Oh and we can't wait for the import driven inflation."

[mccafferty cat]

McWilliams is a waffling, attention-seeking foppish ponce. He would write or say ANYTHING if he thought it would sell a few copies of his book.

[Middleaged]

If we leave the Euro we might as well leave the EU.

Why can't we just accept we are in the Euro and while we have lost control over some things we still control everything else and despite how we like to kid ourselves most of this mess is entirely of our own making and the solution lies with us as well.

We're like spolit children demanding to be treated like adults and then first sign of trouble run home for a handout from the folks.

Time to be adults and stand on our own two feet.

At last, a piece of common sense, there wasn't one thing mentioned about the Euro during the boom. Boom over its the Euro's fault not our's.

Anybody old enough to remember, devaluation was last achieved in Ireland not because economic policy of the government but rather due to an attack on the Punt after Sterling fell to George Soro's.

My mortgage rate was for a month 16.5%, settling back to a 5 year fixed rate of 11.8% (which at the time was cheap) is this where we want to be again?

Somehow I doubt it

[Clanrickard]

McWilliams is a waffling, attention-seeking foppish ponce. He would write or say ANYTHING if he thought it would sell a few copies of his book.

Fine. BUT he is not the only one saying so.

[The Earl of Desmond]

McWilliams is a waffling, attention-seeking foppish ponce. He would write or say ANYTHING if he thought it would sell a few copies of his book.

So what, he's right.

Rather than having a go at him for pointing out the obvious why not try to raise our game to the level were no one can point out what is wrong. A bit of Germanic thinking instead of lazt sloppy Irish thinking mightn't be so bad.

[Digout]

A bit of Germanic thinking instead of lazt sloppy Irish thinking mightn't be so bad.

You want us to invade Poland?

[mccafferty cat]

Do morons like McWilliams realise that our membership of the Eurozone has insulated us against the global tide? What does he think would have happened to our currency in the last month, had the Punt still been in existence? We would have faced a devaluation crisis which would have made the 1992 crisis look like childsplay. If Sterling is under serious threat (as it appears to be) then how on earth would the Punt have been impervious?

And why is it that no-one in this country seems to be aware that Anglo would have collapsed before the summer were it not for massive bailouts from the ECB?

Abandon the eurozone…….are people off their tits?

[fiannafuddy]

Sure Lenihan was practically trying to sell the Euro to the Brits on Newsnight the other night...all the benefits and why there's more than just 1 letter and 6 months between us and Iceland...the government has no intention of becoming a hedged commodity.