The public sector unions' refusal to consider pay cuts will mean that cuts in the huge budget deficit will have to come mostly from compulsory redundancies and to a lesser extent from voluntary redundancies and retirements. That's because the unions' preferred solution of increasing taxes would yield little extra tax revenues and possibly could even reduce them by adding to the economy's downward spiral.
A key problem with a major redundancy programme would be the large upfront cost of redundancy severance payments which would add considerably to the deficit in the short term. This could alarm the bond market which is now paying public sector salaries.
The solution could be twofold. First,redundancy payments could be spread over several years,say 3 to 5 years, with interest paid on the unpaid balances. Second,the payments could be taxed at the standard rate of income tax,which would recover about a fifth of the payments in taxes. In the case of large redundancy payments in excess of a year's pay,the tax could be at the full marginal income tax rate of over 40%.
There is a good argument for using income tax: a redundancy payment of six weeks per year of service makes redundancy very expensive for long service employees eg 30 years of service x 6 weeks = 180 weeks,almost 3.5 years pay and as well there is entitlement to early retirement pensions as pointed out by a poster below. This would heavily bias redundancies against younger civil servants,which would be undesirable according to a civil servant acquaintance who believes many of his colleagues recruited in the late 1970s and 1980s have poor work habits,including long liquid lunches and numerous tea breaks.
As I understand government accounting,the cost of the payments are reported on a cash basis as made. But even if all payments are reported on an accrual accounting basis in the year the redundancy occurs,spreading the payments over several years helps the government's cash flows.



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