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Thread: Morgan Kelly: Ireland to contract by 20-25%, Unemployment 20%

  1. #101
    Politics.ie Regular gombeennation's Avatar
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    when is this soft landing happening - the one the drunken moron and the liar were telling us about.

  2. #102
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    What a facile one liner snip -gombeenman retort - " when you's know what your own plan is sure give us a shout " - how right does he ? Or is it all relative ??

  3. #103
    Politics.ie Regular TradCat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SilverSpurs View Post
    Were it not for emigration Kelly's figure for unemployment would be spot on. The multinationals have massaged the contraction figure.
    Are you seriously claiming that emigration was a surprise to him?

  4. #104
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    breaks my heart but i think morgan kelly is not too far of the mark..... i cannot understand we bail out the banks but the who will bail out the mortgage holders because there is going to be serious problems for the banks when the interest rates go up.

    Can somebody explain the ERsi to me - is it a college because you have at least two professors there - alan barratt and john Fitzgerald???????

  5. #105
    Politics.ie Regular Libero's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TradCat View Post
    Are you seriously claiming that emigration was a surprise to him?
    He appears to have underestimated emigration. In a presentation from the time (Jan '09), one slide mentioned his view that unlike previous periods of high unemployment, traditional destinations for Irish workers also had a tight labour market. Clearly, that's not suppressed emigration to the extent one might expect.

    (That's also the presentation that specifies a 20-25% decline in GNP from peak to trough, which our thread resurrector appears to have missed.)

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