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Thread: We have to devalue, says David McWilliams

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    We have to devalue, says David McWilliams

    Listening to David McWilliams on todays Marion Finucane show, he said no small country ever got out of a crisis like ours without devaluing.

    I suspect as the flood of job losses continues, other people will come round to his point of view.

    I remember Bertie as minister for Finance in 1992, insisting that he would not devalue the Punt.

    A few months later, he did exactly that!!

    The devaluation did take pressure off the economy because the years 1993 to 1997 were among the best the Irish economy ever had with good inward investment, booming exports and no reliance on a property bubble.

    So will our leaders have the courage to make the case in Europe for a devaluation in Ireland to save the jobs of ordinary people?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Breadan O'Connor View Post
    Listening to David McWilliams on todays Marion Finucane show, he said no small country ever got out of a crisis like ours without devaluing.

    I suspect as the flood of job losses continues, other people will come round to his point of view.

    I remember Bertie as minister for Finance in 1992, insisting that he would not devalue the Punt.

    A few months later, he did exactly that!!

    The devaluation did take pressure off the economy because the years 1993 to 1997 were among the best the Irish economy ever had with good inward investment, booming exports and no reliance on a property bubble.

    So will our leaders have the courage to make the case in Europe for a devaluation in Ireland to save the jobs of ordinary people?

    Impossible without leaving EMU ... you simply cannot devalue the Euro in one part of the monetary union, no matter what case you make in Europe .. you have to leave the currency altogether, and currently, that isnt an option. If we did, we'd be worse than Iceland within a fortnight

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    Politics.ie Regular wombat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Breadan O'Connor View Post
    Listening to David McWilliams on todays Marion Finucane show, he said no small country ever got out of a crisis like ours without devaluing.
    It can't be done without leaving the euro and if we do that what would the new Púnt be worth. Looking at what the foreign markets think of the value of our banks I think the cure would be worse than the disease.
    If engineers were wrong as often as economists, would anyone fly aeroplanes?

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    Politics.ie Member Digout's Avatar
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    I suggested this ages ago, we need to cut the cost of everything here by 20%, that will work.

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    Quote Originally Posted by wysiwyg View Post
    Impossible without leaving EMU ... you simply cannot devalue the Euro in one part of the monetary union, no matter what case you make in Europe .. you have to leave the currency altogether, and currently, that isnt an option. If we did, we'd be worse than Iceland within a fortnight
    McWilliam's reasoning was that we have leverage in Europe because of the need to get a Yes vote in the second Lisbon referendum.

    I haven't a clue myself the technicalities of how such a devaluation would take place.

    Certainly we need the continued protection of the Eurozone but the powers that be are ignoring the fact that the strong Euro is destroying Irish jobs wholesale.

    Later this year a lot of people may be thinking like McWilliams when the fuller extent of job destruction becomes apparent.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Digout View Post
    I suggested this ages ago, we need to cut the cost of everything here by 20%, that will work.
    You cannot do it while remaining within the Euro... it simply is impossible.. you cannot devalue a "part of a currency"..

    And right now, in economic terms, if we were to leave the Euro, the IMF would be here before the new money was printed... what is being suggested is akin to saying you can get rid of the pain in a sprained wrist, by cutting your arm off at the elbow... yes, the wrist pain will be gone, but you have a whole new problem which is a lot worse

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    We chained ourselves to the Euro and there is no easy way out now.

    Technically of course we could leave the Eurozone but that would be the Nuclear option.

    TBH long term though we are going to have to rethink our relationship with that Organisation the EU.

    It was never designed with small States like this one in mind.

    Dev's 'External Association' idea might need a dusting down and a makeover of we are to regain control of our own affairs and have a meaningful and positive relationship with the other European Nation-States.

    EUROPA CONVENTUS DELENDA EST
    Europa Conventus Delenda Est

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    Ah, the joys of the single currency, the fetish for 'one size fits all'. I must look up some people to say 'I told you so'....

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    Quote Originally Posted by Breadan O'Connor View Post
    Listening to David McWilliams on todays Marion Finucane show, he said no small country ever got out of a crisis like ours without devaluing.

    I suspect as the flood of job losses continues, other people will come round to his point of view.

    I remember Bertie as minister for Finance in 1992, insisting that he would not devalue the Punt.

    A few months later, he did exactly that!!

    The devaluation did take pressure off the economy because the years 1993 to 1997 were among the best the Irish economy ever had with good inward investment, booming exports and no reliance on a property bubble.

    So will our leaders have the courage to make the case in Europe for a devaluation in Ireland to save the jobs of ordinary people?
    Your final sentence seems to illustrate a complete absence of understanding of our currency.
    Your post is an example of what is now known as "The McWilliams Effect".
    People in pubs talking sh1te about economics, but using all the latest buzz words and citing Lord David's latest but largely mis-understood output.

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    Quote Originally Posted by wysiwyg View Post
    Y
    And right now, in economic terms, if we were to leave the Euro, the IMF would be here before the new money was printed...
    The IMF may come even if we don't devalue..

    McWilliams seemed to envisage devaluing and staying within the Euro.

    I don't know how it could be done myself but McWilliams seemed to think it was possible.

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