That's according to the IAVI.
I'd say they're concealing the true figures.
Most revealing though is the IAVI members' sentiment for 2009!
Full report: http://magico.ie/files/admin/uploa/W...ld_2_37288.pdf
According to daft, houses fell 15 per cent in 2008. The decline in prices is accelerating, with no sign of bottoming out soon. Q4 2008 saw prices drop by 5.8% or 23.2% YoY
Basically, if you have a mortgage on an apartment, you're pretty much focked.
And they will fall another 40% this year , by 2010 you will but a property in Sandymount for €300.000
Prices will be as they were in the 1980s
It's scandalous that we don't have a proper land registry and price transparency in the property market. These figures cannot be trusted, neither can those from the ESRI. This should be a priority for any government seeking to prove that they have learned from the mistakes of the Celtic Lemming.
The figures will be off anyway due to the lack of transactions in the market. For example, before if the average price was determined by 10 sales, its now being determined by one sale. Very hard determine the true extent of the price falls until a reasonable level of activity returns to the market.
I saw in I believe, the Irish Times recently that they believe that National house prices, will stabilise at 205K in Dubin and 155K across the state. That is a big drop, but it would put it in line with longer terms trends. The IAVI predictions are too modest.
There is a great post, on Financialsense.com, called the foundations of the crash. It goes through how era defining events can build up in a society, till during a period of great chaos, it can redefine the country involved. He was an America, so he mentioned, WW2 in the 40s, the Civil war, in the 60's and the American revolution in the 1780's. All of these redefined how America stood in the world and viewed itself. He also pointed out that they usually occur every hundred years or so. I think that Ireland due to her turbulent history has many of these, 1601, 1691, 1798, 1847, 1921, and I believe that the next ten years, will be an era defining period in our nation and the world as well.
Went in a bit of a rant there
Last edited by Eorna; 14th January 2009 at 03:17 AM.
Agreed a land registry needs to be established asap updated by the revenue so that the vested interests cannot get near it. This will allow all purchasers to know the true values of property in their area. This operates successfully in the Uk and other areas.Originally Posted by HanleyS
The reports issued today are unreliable and underestimate the true drops. The daft report is based on asking prices which are totally out of sync with the market clearing price. The IAVI report is a work of fiction.
None of them mention the phrase 'house price crash' - they don't want to panic the sheeple any more. Hopefully the pace of reductions will increase in the next few months. The sooner the price correction is completed the better for everyone.
Um... is this not just a soft landing ?
The guy from the IAVI this morning was a disgrace.
He predicted that a floor would be hit when there is another 5-10% drop. He had nothing to base this on and he calls himself professionally qualified.
These guys obviously have not studied trends in historic property bubbles.
He is only qualified in deception and lying.
The good thing is no one will listen to these cowboys anymore (hopefully!).
That is great news, although people will dig their heels in and refuse to sell at these levels.
I know a guy who threw his toys out of the pram, and took his apartment off the market recently. Simply because he could not get a 07/08 price for it, and this is a guy who is still making a profit on the place even if it went back to 1999 prices, pure pigheaded stubbornness. Then again, he is not a nice person, he would sell his own grandmother for the latest model Mercedes.
The likely reality is that you need to listen to his ilk and Morgan Kelly and then fall somewhere in between based on your own outlook. He signed off by saying its a good time to trade up so I think in about a year to eighteen months it will be a good time to trade up!
We are "they"
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