Dublin House Prices Fell By 16.5% in 2008

[odie1kanobe]

Agreed a land registry needs to be established asap updated by the revenue so that the vested interests cannot get near it. This will allow all purchasers to know the true values of property in their area. This operates successfully in the Uk and other areas.

Purpose of the Land Registry in the UK is nothing to do with prices though that is a benefit however even that can be questionable where purchases at undervalue go through.

It has to do with ensuring the ownership of property is recorded and that charges can be applied.

Even then it is not fool proof and they pay out £25 + million a year because they allow people to transfer ownership of the property to someone else without the owners consent.

The idea that it will somehow tell people the true value of their property is false as 2 houses on same street will be valued completely differently.

[smitchy2]

The likely reality is that you need to listen to his ilk and Morgan Kelly and then fall somewhere in between based on your own outlook. He signed off by saying its a good time to trade up so I think in about a year to eighteen months it will be a good time to trade up!

I agree that the real number is somewhere between the 2 of these forecasts.
I am not sure where Morgan Kelly was going with 80%- as this went against his original model in 2006.
I reckon 50% is more accurate.

It would be no harm to get rid of these auctioneers though as they only there to inflate prices.

We have to stop treating property as an investment commodity as we will just end up in the same cycle 10-15 years down the road.

[Fish]

The likely reality is that you need to listen to his ilk and Morgan Kelly and then fall somewhere in between based on your own outlook. He signed off by saying its a good time to trade up so I think in about a year to eighteen months it will be a good time to trade up!

The reality is that we are in uncharterd territory here. No one can predict where a) the bottom of the market is going to be and b) what the driver recovery going to come from. Kelly's numerous analyses are a good guide though but I don't think even he could have predicted the severity of the global recession and in my opinion that is the elephant in the room that is being conveniently ignored by the usual vested interests. That and the fact that many of them excercising blatant denial of the apocalyptic position this country and it's property market is in.

[quote]

I agree that the real number is somewhere between the 2 of these forecasts.
I am not sure where Morgan Kelly was going with 80%- as this went against his original model in 2006.
I reckon 50% is more accurate.

Generally property prices overshoot on the way back down after a major bubble like we have seen and I think Kelly's original 2006 predictions were optimistic for the reasons I stated above.

It would be no harm to get rid of these auctioneers though as they only there to inflate prices.

Maybe not get rid of them but as someone else said a proper independant and transparent tracking agency of the actual selling prices is badly needed.

We have to stop treating property as an investment commodity as we will just end up in the same cycle 10-15 years down the road.

Absolutely!

[thejuggler]

Purpose of the Land Registry in the UK is nothing to do with prices though that is a benefit however even that can be questionable where purchases at undervalue go through.

It has to do with ensuring the ownership of property is recorded and that charges can be applied.

Even then it is not fool proof and they pay out £25 + million a year because they allow people to transfer ownership of the property to someone else without the owners consent.

The idea that it will somehow tell people the true value of their property is false as 2 houses on same street will be valued completely differently.

What it would do is let people know the exact historical selling prices of properties in a particular area. It would remove the need to rely on the rediculous auction price 'sold for in the region of x million euro' reports in newspapers which is as close to the truth as you can get in this country at present.

During the boom times auctioneers tended to base their asking price on whatever the last similar house in the area they sold for plus a markup. As final sale agreed figures tended to exceed the asking by anything up to 10% we have nothing to rely on but surveys from vested interests like the IAVI and asking price reports from Daft which do not reflect the market clearing price as asking prices are aspirational at best.

This is all hypothetical at present. As long as FF are in government they will never allow such a system to be set up. It goes against the desires of their friends and benefactors in the construction industry.

[Fish]

The likely reality is that you need to listen to his ilk and Morgan Kelly and then fall somewhere in between based on your own outlook. He signed off by saying its a good time to trade up so I think in about a year to eighteen months it will be a good time to trade up!

What it would do is let people know the exact historical selling prices of properties in a particular area. It would remove the need to rely on the rediculous auction price 'sold for in the region of x million euro' reports in newspapers which is as close to the truth as you can get in this country at present.

During the boom times auctioneers tended to base their asking price on whatever the last similar house in the area they sold for plus a markup. As final sale agreed figures tended to exceed the asking by anything up to 10% we have nothing to rely on but surveys from vested interests like the IAVI and asking price reports from Daft which do not reflect the market clearing price as asking prices are aspirational at best.

This is all hypothetical at present. As long as FF are in government they will never allow such a system to be set up. It goes against the desires of their friends and benefactors in the construction industry.

Indeed

Seconded!

[odie1kanobe]

What it would do is let people know the exact historical selling prices of properties in a particular area. It would remove the need to rely on the rediculous auction price 'sold for in the region of x million euro' reports in newspapers which is as close to the truth as you can get in this country at present.

This is all hypothetical at present. As long as FF are in government they will never allow such a system to be set up. It goes against the desires of their friends and benefactors in the construction industry.

Factually wrong as UK LR only shows prices from when system became available online i.e. 2000.

Additionally money has already been set aside by the Irish Govt in 2008 to look at setting up system for recording of property transactions.

[Fish]

Factually wrong as UK LR only shows prices from when system became available online i.e. 2000.

Additionally money has already been set aside by the Irish Govt in 2008 to look at setting up system for recording of property transactions.

I won't hold my breath and will be interested to see it's remit and staffing considering all of the other QUANGOS they have set up...

[odie1kanobe]

I won't hold my breath and will be interested to see it's remit and staffing considering all of the other QUANGOS they have set up...

Not a quango as would be statutory body.

Issues like scummy solicitors taking out multiple mortgages and registering none would go away. Additionally it would ensure property deeds are held in a central location and ensure disputes like ownership of carrickmines site get dealt with quickly.

[Factorem]

This "transparency" stuff that people are going on about is a distraction. Cartels cannot survive in a free market and if they attempt to stifle the free market, they get caught out and their reputation gets destroyed.

I think we can safely say that the reputations of ESRI/IAVI/etc. has been destroyed. The availability of real-time information on the internet has played a huge part in that. Let's just move on. Actually, it's good to ridicule the VIs as much as possible and campaign to have their state supports removed from them. Let's see how long they can operate on the free market.