Academic: 80% Fall in House Prices

[johnnyh]

So what actual drops would produce a fall of 80% in real terms?

Based on ESRI/PTSB house price data, real prices are already down 20.4% in Dublin (21.3% outside) from their peaks of Jan and Apr 2007 respectively.

Finance's addendum to the Stability Programme Update includes inflation forecasts out to 2013. Taken at face, and assuming prices bottom out by 2012/3, a 50% (80%) real drop would return us to 2001 (pre-96) price levels, about 225k (100k) in Dublin and 150k (60k) outside.

To answer the question, to achieve a 50% real drop (from peak) you're looking at losing approx 33% on today's (November 08) values in Dublin and 37% elsewhere.

I suppose the ultimate point to bear in mind is that the value of property is only set when you try to shift it. If you can meet your mortgage and don't need to move home, you'll be insulated from most of this -- apart from the bitter taste of negative equity.

Unfortunately it's people who can't meet their mortgages who will be testing the deep end.

[constitutionus]

Not to mention the ongoing scandal of unscrupulous management companies operating in this state.

"management companies" are the closest thing to state sanctioned theft ive ever seen (well outside harney and nursing homes !) .

theyre a pure scam designed to reward developers with an ongoing revenue stream and allow the local authorities to be negligant in their duties. what in the name of god were they even doing in housing estates !?!

i can understand apartment blocks, even though the charges are arbitary and bear no relation to the actual cost- which could rocket at ANY time, but at least theres a case for communal facislities like lifts, roof gardens , cleaning of carpeting in hall ways and the like. but when it got extended to housing estates it was shown up for the scam it was. mate of mine was in tyrrelstown and was absolutley gouged from em till the residents took over at the AGM.

ive a feeling theres going to be lots of solicitors getting rich on the back of court cases with these rip off merchants. its got to the stage even the politicians cant stand over some of em anymore.