Academic: 80% Fall in House Prices

[smitchy2]

In his analysis he predicted that most property booms result in a 30-40% decrease in a 2 to 4 year period. Factoring inflation you might add 10% onto this- I doubt we are going to have inflation over the next 2 years.
If you take the peak was around the end of December 2006 you would think some kind of floor might be reached by the end of 2010 but depending on how bad things get here this may be extended.

It is important to note that when this floor is hit there will likely be a sustained period of flat house prices. This should be encouraged by regulation- we need to stop our addiction to house investment in this country. Property investors must be discouraged.

He raises important questions about the FR and the Central Bank and their laissez faire role in all of this.

[kellsangel]

So what actual drops would produce a fall of 80% in real terms?

40% , 50% , 60%?

[Truth.ie]

No-one likes to admit this, but this is good to see. House prices were plain silly post 2000. A plot of land with no amenties in some windswept mountain costing 100k.
An apt smaller than the U.N regulated size of housing for refugee families for 250k.
Houses will become homes again. I'll be able to get on the ladder, and we'll find something else to talk about in pubs apart from how much we made from the last sale.

[TradCat]

Truth.ie

I'm trying to sell a house and I still think it's a good thing. The property bubble was insane and the cause of a lot of our other problems.

[Dillinger]

An 80% drop from peak is very realistic, especially when you look at how we are going the way of early 90's Japan. It will not be too hard to destroy these buildings, as they were badly built to begin with.

A friend of mine bought a place in Balbriggan, and he passed the builder on the way in to the building one day. The builder asked him "what are you doing with the spirit level ?". He replied "I have come to check that the windows and floors are all ok". The builder replied "of course they are ok, you ******************************g eejit", and the builder walked off laughing, then of course went to tell the other builders who laughed. It turned out that both the floors, and windows were crooked. It took him two years of arguments with the same builder, before the now leaking windows were put back in correctly.

[Truth.ie]

An 80% drop from peak is very realistic, especially when you look at how we are going the way of early 90's Japan. It will not be too hard to destroy these buildings, as they were badly built to begin with.

A friend of mine bought a place in Balbriggan, and he passed the builder on the way in to the building one day. The builder asked him "what are you doing with the spirit level ?". He replied "I have come to check that the windows and floors are all ok". The builder replied "of course they are ok, you ******************************g eejit", and the builder walked off laughing, then of course went to tell the other builders who laughed. It turned out that both the floors, and windows were crooked. It took him two years of arguments with the same builder, before the now leaking windows were put back in correctly.

An un-level window would be hard to open or close, but still shouldn't "leak". More likely a failure in the damp-proof course or lack of. The builder sounded an arrogant ************************* anyway, so your friend was right to stick it to him.

[Dillinger]

An un-level window would be hard to open or close, but still shouldn't "leak". More likely a failure in the damp-proof course or lack of. The builder sounded an arrogant ************************* anyway, so your friend was right to stick it to him.

Yes, the windows were hard to close. The builder just slagged him off to his face though, for bringing in his own tools to check out the place he had just bought.

[kellsangel]

Yes, the windows were hard to close. The builder just slagged him off to his face though, for bringing in his own tools to check out the place he had just bought.

Was it a DIY supervision?


So often the term Builder is used to describe a contractor who is doing some building work.

The term is reverential an is used in a manner that implies great competence.

I know of one instance in which the "Builder" had worked all his life as a postman without any previous experience.

Needless to say it turned out to be a disaster.

[KingKane]

Here's his exact quote


cYp

Which means that trough would be a good time to buy in the right locations. I think we're looking at around about a stabilisation level involving a 30% minimum drop, with an average of 40% but with up to 60% in some higher end areas or the extremes of the commuter belts. That doesn't mean it won't drop lower than that in the meantime but that you should look to be able to pick up stuff if it overcorrects.

[KingKane]

An un-level window would be hard to open or close, but still shouldn't "leak". More likely a failure in the damp-proof course or lack of. The builder sounded an arrogant ************************* anyway, so your friend was right to stick it to him.

Sounds like the window frame went in level into a space that wasn't and so it wasn't a snug enough fit to make it easy to seal.