Ireland in 3-5 years time.

[DeathKnell]

Just thinking.. Knowing as we do know the likely conditions for employment, the economy et al over the next 3-5 years. And more importantly, the contrast in fortunes from the previous 5 years..
What will Ireland look like socially, economically, politically by Jan 2012-14?

My thoughts:

Politically: I think there could be alot of turmoil over the medium term with this Government going from already terrible to obscenely bad before the Greens pull out.. By 2012 I expect a FG-Lab coalition Gov. Independents will be squeezed. SF - 4%..
The FG-Lab Gov will have the shortest honeymoon in history however when they get a real look at the Public finanaces. If they do not show serious aptitude in turning it around, then a return to 1980's style elections..

Economically: I believe some serious unemployment will be the main feature of the next 3-5 years unfortunately.. Also a drip , drip of BevC*ntFlynn and Anglo Directors loans type scandals every few months.. This will erode economic confidence until Bruton or someone who is 'perceived ' better than Lenihan sets up some goals and conditions to achieve them. Unfortunately, unless the Public Service does their bit, this could be the optimistic viewpoint..
Bottom line, stability will be welcomed in 5 years time after the most bitter recession in 50 years.

Socially: Interesting thing here is the contrast in the fortunes of the populace during and after the 'Celtic Tiger'. People have grown accustomed to a certain standard of living, and an expectation of finding a job. I am afraid that without the release valve of emigration no longer freely available to those who see their standard of living decimated with no chance of escape we will see people turn to the extremes of political choices and or criminality..

What do others think?

[jpc]

A lot of trimming of expectations.
A lot less of the nauseous overhypeing that accompanied everything that happened here.
There was a media bubble which dulled many individuals critical faculties.
A hell of a lot of broken dreams and families from the weight of debt.
Hopefully people will remember why everything went pear shaped.

[S.W.I.N.D.L.E]

Just looking at my old Irish army combats "made in Ireland" my old telecom eireann telephone "made in ireland" My old sweatshirt "made in Donegal". Thats all gone thanks to the celtic tiger which was built on a false economy of multi national companies here only for tax benefits. Well they are going, and we have sweet F.A. left. Future looks like emigration again.

[DeathKnell]

Just looking at my old Irish army combats "made in Ireland" my old telecom eireann telephone "made in ireland" My old sweatshirt "made in Donegal". Thats all gone thanks to the celtic tiger which was built on a false economy of multi national companies here only for tax benefits. Well they are going, and we have sweet F.A. left. Future looks like emigration again.

Point is.. Emigration is no longer the freely available option it once was.. Not to the US and the rest of Europe is in the tiolet. Oz and Canada are a poss if you are free and single..
So what will the effect of alot of unemployed people who cant go anywhere be? Thats the question..

[bagel]

after the next general election i reckon labour will demand the position of taoiseach for at least a year as a minimum price for entering a coalition government;
they will be able to sit on the fence until fg or ff buckle and give in to labour's demand;
ff would be most likely to meet labour's demands so this ups the ante on fg bigtime;
backbenchers if ff and fg have nothing to lose by such an arrangement and would probably be prepared to ditch their respective party leaders in order to ensure their party achieves power;
talk about the tail wagging the dog.

[YellowRedGreen]

Reckon theres some small chance of things improving more quickly in our traditional emigration destinations as they are not lumbered with the same criminal level of public finances deficit we have bought ourselves. However more difficult to emigrate if you have a mortgage. Will we go back to the old times where the husband lives in London and sends money back to the wife? At least he will be able to get home once a month on Ryanair. Not a pleasant vista.

[slx]

I think you're possibly painting too gloomy a picture, it's going to be somewhere in the middle. The US and UK are lumbered with insane levels of debt too, it's worse as in both countries its personal debt, rather than investor stuff.

Personally, I think the Government's taking on far too much risk, there's something to be said for letting the developers take a very very painful hit on this. If Anglo failed would it matter? It's not really part of the 'real economy' anyway as it has very little in the way of current account / small savings account banking. Effectively it's a private bank for property developers.

Perhaps putting a few billion into a new bank, along the lines of the old ACC or ICC might be one way of getting out of this. The credit union infrastructure or An Post might form a good basis for a new nationalised bank to 'start from scratch' for SMEs etc..

[Simbo67]

If FF falls below 50 seats they won't have the option of going in with Labour. FFers (the surviving ones) might be happy to sit the next few years out.

[yehbut_nobut]

Maybe people will start to remember what saving was like. You know - when you wanted something but didn't have the money straight away, so you saved up for it? People might (re)learn the pleasure of delayed gratification!