Cowen's 5 years to correct state's finances politically unfeasible

[patslatt]

Taoiseach Brian Cowen recently stated that it would take five years to correct the state's finances. Presumably,the government feels that a rapid implementation of budgetary austerity and government reform would alienate public sector unions,so it feels the need for lots of time to bring the social partners around and negotiate the minute details of long overdue reforms of the public sector.

There are several grave weaknesses in this approach. First,the talk of a five year plan allows the public sector unions an opening to engage in delaying tactics over most of the five years.

Second,most big businesses in the same situation would engage in slash and burn measures,including swift,massive layoffs, to bring costs under control and prevent bankruptcy. Why should Ireland Inc be any different,given that the government can no longer inflate its way out of the budgetary crisis ,having sent the money printing presses to Brussels?

Third,the premium of over 1% on Irish bonds versus German bonds should be interpreted as the bond market's shot across the bow of Ireland Inc,so if the government thinks it can borrow to cover deficits variously projected at up to €20 billion,its bonds may start to attract junk bond status with interest yields rising to very expensive levels of 12 to 15% on long bonds.

The government must now govern in the interest of the people who elected it,not the special interests in the public sector. Its best choice politically would be to provide strong economic leadership and make the hard austerity decisions. If it fails to do so,the country will have a brush with Argentia- and Iceland-style bankruptcy with serious social unrest and Fianna Fail will end up a minority party in the next general election.

[Factorem]

Talking 5 years into the future is a typical Cowen strategy.

If he was a rugby player he'd be a full back with a bad kick.

We need a full forward superstar who's so talented Biffo never gets his hands near the ball.

[CookieMonster]

He and Bertie f**ked it up pretty quickly, didn't they?

[Dillon Country]

He and Bertie f**ked it up pretty quickly, didn't they?

They sure did and now they want us all to pay for it!

I know and I accept that action is needed but it must for focussed on getting the public finances in order a.s.a.p.. Otherwise, we will just drift and allow ourselves to be outbid in terms of job creation and investment.

Cowen & Co cannot see ahead at all- blinded by being in power too long.

[CookieMonster]

He and Bertie f**ked it up pretty quickly, didn't they?

I'm starting to sound like my Dad!

[BodyofEvidence]

Taoiseach Brian Cowen recently stated that it would take five years to correct the state's finances. Presumably,the government feels that a rapid implementation of budgetary austerity and government reform would alienate public sector unions,so it feels the need for lots of time to bring the social partners around and negotiate the minute details of long overdue reforms of the public sector.

There are several grave weaknesses in this approach. First,the talk of a five year plan allows the public sector unions an opening to engage in delaying tactics over most of the five years.

Second,most big businesses in the same situation would engage in slash and burn measures,including swift,massive layoffs, to bring costs under control and prevent bankruptcy. Why should Ireland Inc be any different,given that the government can no longer inflate its way out of the budgetary crisis ,having sent the money printing presses to Brussels?

Third,the premium of over 1% on Irish bonds versus German bonds should be interpreted as the bond market's shot across the bow of Ireland Inc,so if the government thinks it can borrow to cover deficits variously projected at up to €20 billion,its bonds may start to attract junk bond status with interest yields rising to very expensive levels of 12 to 15% on long bonds.

The government must now govern in the interest of the people who elected it,not the special interests in the public sector. Its best choice politically would be to provide strong economic leadership and make the hard austerity decisions. If it fails to do so,the country will have a brush with Argentia- and Iceland-style bankruptcy with serious social unrest and Fianna Fail will end up a minority party in the next general election.

See, theres your fallacy . the state is NOT a business and cannot be run as such.

[stanley]

This is really starting to sound like Bertie-style spin, keep buying more and more time, mushroom politics - keep them in the dark and feed them full of sh't, remember a few months ago he said everything was ok as he pulled the door behind him, the guy should be in chains in the Joy.

[markeys]

So basically another nod to the trade unions that FF will sacrifise the country rather than endanger themselves politically. Idiots.

[Factorem]

This is really starting to sound like Bertie-style spin, keep buying more and more time, mushroom politics - keep them in the dark and feed them full of sh't, remember a few months ago he said everything was ok as he pulled the door behind him, the guy should be in chains in the Joy.

I genuinely believe that part of the cleansing process in Irish society should be the establishment of a special prison for corrupt politicians, business men, property developers and white collar crime merchants.

A high-rise prison in the middle of the IFSC with small slitted windows would be a fitting icon to Ireland's corrupt history: we might one day even open it up as a museum.

[yehbut_nobut]

The Taoiseach's problem is he doesn't have five months, let alone five years to turn things around.

This problem was way above the horizon last summer, while Cowen was sitting in his caravan knocking back a few and having golf lessons. If we had a series of planned measures implemented and being acted on Now, six months dwon the line from then, we might be persuaded that he had more tricks to his bag than just (inept) crisis/panic management.