One letter and about 6 months...
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One letter and about 6 months...
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that joke has been doing the rounds in london the last few weeks...it a good point tho...
Proportionality and magnitude: In both cases the loan books of their banks excced their nation's GNP, but in Iceland by a much greater multiple; secondly, the proportion of bad debts on those loan books, is much higher in Iceland; third, their currency is sinking faster becuase of all this, while ours the Euro is rising; fourth the Icelandic banks had been taking deposits especially in the UK, and giving rates of interest that could not be sustained due to the above three points, their asset base was collapsing and they could not underwrite those deposits, the only Irish Bank that 'might' have been doing the latter, with a very bad Loan book is Anglo Irish. Thus Iceland is a much worse basket case than Ireland.
Still, even as the investor consensus ravages the euro, it's worth remembering that the same herd instinct not long ago was pronouncing last rites for the dollar. Last year, as China's central bank chief called for a new global currency and Russian central bankers dumped greenbacks to buy euros, many saw the dollar's decline as inevitable. Now, the dollar is riding high, and the euro looks bedraggled.
"Views might change very quickly"
Just to be clear...6 months starting from when exactly?
Ireland Her Own and All Therein, From the Sod to the Sky - James Fintan Lalor
Do you know what the national deficit is? It's unsustainable. The country will be bankrupt within 6-12 months on the current trajectory. Xmas tax-take is going to be dismal which will only accelerate matters.
And if the Germans can't raise money on the government bond market, what hope have we Irish?
We're on the road to hell and nobody is willing to acknowledge it.
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Thank God for the Euro - could you imagine what FF would have done if they had interest rates and their own gombeen currency to play around with as well.
I had to emigrate to the UK in the bleak mid 80s, National Debt over 100% of GDP, high taxes, emigration, etc, returning later to a dramatic improvement. Thanks to Ray mCSharry and Alan Dukes (The Tallaght Stretegy), and a host of other factors, (low interest rates, very low commodity prices, a currency devaluation followed by Euro stability, unrestricted access to the single market, a growing global economy that our then competitive open economy gained exponentially from, aggressive and succesful foreign investment strategy, ideal demographics, falling taxes, etc, etc.
I really believe we can turn this around again because domestic factors have made us more vulnerable than we should have been. I believe the necessary adjustment is now being forced on us. We will become more competitive, homes will be more affordable, under used resources will be put to better use, our food industry has great potential, and we might finally develop some indigenous world leaders. Other variables are already coing into play,very lowinterest rates, and falling commodity prices.
The most serious negatives we have are: A loss of confidence, personal indebtedness and Govt ministers that have had their heads in the sand, did not take heed of warnings, and are going round with the proverbial fire blanket ever since.
What gives me hope though is that the Greens are holding their nerve, and Cowan and Lenihan might finally be facing reality, (though the rescuing of Anglo Irish is such a waste of the limited resources available in the Pension Fund. Better to have quarateened that bank and sold it off on the cheap especailly since deposits are guranteed anyway).