Will Ireland have to leave the Euro to save itself?

[patslatt]

And you consider becoming a beaten impoverished colony at the mercy of external powers again to be a good thing?

There is an alternative. It won't be easy and it'll require a few years of hard work but it can be done, and it involves us purging a fat useless treacherous political class and running our own affairs properly.

I simply do not see how it makes sense for us to throw away even a pretence that we can manage our own affairs and slavishly surrender the futures of the next few generations in order to, umm, help a few bankers in Frankfurt sleep better at night

Only someone with very serious self-loathing and national inferiority complexes could even contemplate such a scenario, never mind being positively eager for it.

Something rotten in the state of Ireland, and I'm not just talking about banks or Fianna Fáil.

If government debt rises to 150% of GNP at worst,the interest on the debt would still be bearable at interest rates in the range of 4% to 7%.which would result in an annual interest bill of 6% to 10.5% of GNP. If government spending were cut from 58% of GNP this year to say 40% in three years (a cut in the ratio of 15/58= 26%,some of this occuring through private sector growth),the annual interest bill would be about 15% to 26% of this 40%. So at worst,about a quarter of government spending would go to interest.

In time,the reduction in government spending from the present ludicrous level of 58% of GNP to 40% would allow fast economic growth. That growth together with some debt repayment would reduce the debt burden.

[eirepol]

Try re-reading what I wrote:



with "the above" being changing the EU Treaties.

The Irish people do have the sovereign right to leave the Eurozone - the current legal mechanism for doing so under the EU Treaties is either: a) to negotiate a re-write of the EU Treaties and related EU Directives, or, b) to negotiate a withdrawal from the EU. Both of those options would take considerable time to negotiate and ratify.

Alternatively, we could unilaterally abrogate the EU treaties as I outlined above but since any constitutional referenda to put such a measure into effect (which I doubt would pass) would also take time, we would scarcely be much better off than in the first scenario.

Why? Because, of course, the financial markets, businesses and ordinary consumers would not sit idly by and hold their money in Irish banks accounts waiting for it to be forcibly converted into a currency that would certainly sink in value against the Euro as soon as it was launched...

Ok I'm not a lawyer but for the sake of argument, couldn't they pass a law to pull out of the euro over the theoretical sleepy weekend, and then call a referendum to make the law constitutional? Quite often the Irish constitution has been forced to play catch up to the EU treaties eg Nice Lisbon etc.

[McDave]

You seem to be an educated guy, so I also assume you know your post is somewhat lacking in truth.

I was going to engage with you on the wider aspects of sovereignty and the choices sovereign states face in using aspects of that sovereignty, but on the basis of your subsequent abusive post, I think I'll abstain.

[McDave]

In case you didn't get it McDave, you're a f***ing liar!!

?

[Passer-by]

Ok I'm not a lawyer but for the sake of argument, couldn't they pass a law to pull out of the euro over the theoretical sleepy weekend, and then call a referendum to make the law constitutional? Quite often the Irish constitution has been forced to play catch up to the EU treaties eg Nice Lisbon etc.

The treaties -and more importantly laws arising from them - don't come into effect until after the treaties have been fully ratified.

Any law passed the way you describe would almost definitely be regarded as unconstitutional by the Supreme Court - it would be a bit like passing legislation for abortion on demand and then subsequently holding a referendum in an attempt to make that law constitutional.

[eirepol]

The treaties -and more importantly laws arising from them - don't come into effect until after the treaties have been fully ratified.

Any law passed the way you describe would almost definitely be regarded as unconstitutional by the Supreme Court - it would be a bit like passing legislation for abortion on demand and then subsequently holding a referendum in an attempt to make that law constitutional.

Ok. Perhaps the EU treaties are not the correct examples, but I think there were precedents of laws which were ruled unconsitutional by the Supreme Couty but which subsequently became constitutional on the passage of a referendum.

[johntrenchard]

I would guess that leaving the euro is an envitability, and it wont be just us - Spain, Italy , Greece and Portugal will also leave - or rather , may well be forced to leave in order to prevent a total collapse of the euro.

Shoring the euro up and tieing it to the core economies of France, Beneleux and Germany might be the only way it can survive.

It is entirely possible that perhaps a secondary euro tied to the peripheral EU countries could emerge, or maybe even a Mediterranean Euro , tieing in Iberia, Italy and Greece?

[McDave]

I would guess that leaving the euro is an envitability, and it wont be just us - Spain, Italy , Greece and Portugal will also leave - or rather , may well be forced to leave in order to prevent a total collapse of the euro.

Shoring the euro up and tieing it to the core economies of France, Beneleux and Germany might be the only way it can survive.

It is entirely possible that perhaps a secondary euro tied to the peripheral EU countries could emerge, or maybe even a Mediterranean Euro , tieing in Iberia, Italy and Greece?

It's an interesting concept. There's no doubt that the EU is destined to be a multi-speed arrangement. The Lisbon common position provisions have pretty much copperfastened that.

My own view is that the Euro will easily survive as a currency for at least 15 countries (the Italians and Iberians are under stress, but not the weakest of the PIGS). At worst I wouldn't expect anyone other than Greece and Ireland to leave. But at that rate arrangements will be made to keep them in. Greece might be the only country to collapse politically to the extent that they may be forced to leave. However, Ireland will do everything within its political capabilities to stay in the Eurozone.

[irish_bob]

i bought more gold today on the assumption that wobbles in the eurozone would make a rise inevitable , i only had 5 k in gold before today and bought another 5 k

from watching cnbc this evening , it appear gold and other commodities were down sharply today due to an increase in the dollar , now i can see why the dollar rose , what with the problems in the eurozone but im begining to wonder is the only real yardstick to use when predicting gold price , the value of the dollar , is it simply the case that it doesnt matter whats happening with other currencys , unless the american dollar is falling , gold simply cannot rise