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Thread: Only Bank of Ireland and AIB will remain.

  1. #11
    Politics.ie Regular Keith-M's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jfk2008 View Post
    Don't forget the Credit Unions.
    And all the foreign owned banks.
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  2. #12
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    Can't see the likes of PTSB falling on its' sword when it was not a major offender.

  3. #13
    Politics.ie Royalty toxic avenger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by yehbut_nobut View Post
    What about EBS? Wouldn't they have to to demutualise (is that a word?) before they can merge?
    Look at Britain. Their Nationwide Building Society refused to demutualize, fought off the carpetbaggers, and are currently one of the, if not the most, well-placed lenders in the current situation. The demutualized former building societies are under severe pressure. I wouldn' have thought demutualization would be in anyone's interests, except the quick-profit-driven carpetbaggers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by toxic avenger View Post
    Look at Britain. Their Nationwide Building Society refused to demutualize, fought off the carpetbaggers, and are currently one of the, if not the most, well-placed lenders in the current situation. The demutualized former building societies are under severe pressure. I wouldn' have thought demutualization would be in anyone's interests, except the quick-profit-driven carpetbaggers.

    That's what I thought. So why's it being mooted that AIB and BoI could be the only one's left operating (i presume out of all those that joined the guarantee scheme?)
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  5. #15
    Politics.ie Regular Defeated Romanticist's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kerrynorth View Post
    Can't see the likes of PTSB falling on its' sword when it was not a major offender.
    Depending on who you believe their is seriously bad juju surrounding AIB and/or BOI too. What odds on them both going and something really drastic being worked out. Like new banks altogether?
    Liquidate labour, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate.

  6. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by yehbut_nobut View Post
    What about EBS? Wouldn't they have to to demutualise (is that a word?) before they can merge?
    Not if the entity they were merging with was also a mutual. THink rabobank is a mutual and they've been linked with them a number of times. Also current CEO has direct links to Rabo if memory serves me correctly.

    Anyway, regardless of what they do a vote would have to be put to the members.
    (although once the board has decided on a course of action to support that is likely what will carry as the chairman wielding all the proxy votes tends to pretty much have the biggest say)
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  7. #17
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    Constitutional rights of bank shareholders

    Lenihan can't force the banks to merge because of property constitutional rights. But he could twist arms by nationalising one of the major ones at their present low market capitalisations,through a takeover bid. With the implicit backing of the government for bank equity capital and solvency,the banking market share of a nationalised bank would rocket at the expense of the rest.

    The best solution is for the government to guarantee a good return on investment on new bank share issues for say seven years. That gives plenty of time for the government to deal with its deficits and the banks to sort out their problem loans. As a condition of the guarantee, the government should employ property consultants to work with external auditors to ensure that banks are estimating the true value of property loans. It is important that bad loans be written down to prevent throwing good money after bad to zombie developers and zombie banks and to free up capital for ordinary decent businesses.

  8. #18
    nuj
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    Quote Originally Posted by patslatt View Post
    Lenihan can't force the banks to merge because of property constitutional rights. But he could twist arms by nationalising one of the major ones at their present low market capitalisations,through a takeover bid. With the implicit backing of the government for bank equity capital and solvency,the banking market share of a nationalised bank would rocket at the expense of the rest.

    The best solution is for the government to guarantee a good return on investment on new bank share issues for say seven years. That gives plenty of time for the government to deal with its deficits and the banks to sort out their problem loans. As a condition of the guarantee, the government should employ property consultants to work with external auditors to ensure that banks are estimating the true value of property loans. It is important that bad loans be written down to prevent throwing good money after bad to zombie developers and zombie banks and to free up capital for ordinary decent businesses.
    Property constitutional rights? Forget them. Without government backing - because noone else will - they might all fail, sooner rather than later.

    As for the "true value of property loans" - there isn't one, in the current environment. That's the problem. Whether it's a "money-good" mortgage, or a daft spec loan on the likes of Sean Dunne's Ballsbridge property, there's no market for either. Writing down bad loans would send at least two banks to the wall. Why should the taxpayer have to pay one cent for these, either by buying shares in them, or by subsidising AIB/BofI to take them over?

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