The exponential function and the gretest failure of the human race

[blacbloc]

This lecture is described as 'the most important video you will ever see'.

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY]YouTube - The Most IMPORTANT Video You'll Ever See (part 1 of 8)[/ame]

It describes the ramifications for human beings of the mathematical formula known as the exponential function and relates it to growth in human consumption of oil and other resources - and to population growth. It's a brilliant and compelling lecture which ought to be compulsory viewing, imo. Professor Albert Bartlett has for years been trying to raise the alarm about unsustainble consumption levels of oil. Even now, when the fact of peak oil is more widely accepted, the true scale of the problem and its full human significance has not yet been widely understood. For a brief period back in the 70s it seemed that Jimmy Carter was prepared to make an attempt to tackle it head on. He was widely ridiculed for his efforts and instead of heeding his words of caution the US went on an oil-based bonanza in the suceeding decades which will result in a human catastrophe the like and scale of of which we have never seen before. The oil is going to run out incredibly quickly and if we dont start making serious adjustments, the situation will be brutal. Why are we not hearing anything of this from our governments? Just as they sailed us into the financial crisisis with eyes wide shut, they are doing the same with oil.

[blacbloc]

Olduvai Theory is similar to Bartletts - and estimates that the end the industrial consumption period will be in approx 2030. Here is the guts of the theory but more at link below.

Industrial Civilization is defined in Duncan's paper as the time approximately from when energy production per capita rises from 37% of the peak value to when it falls to below 37% of its peak value (1930-2030)[1] i.e. the peak in energy production per capita is in between these two endpoints and these two endpoints have values of 37% of the peak value.

The Olduvai theory claims that exponential growth of energy production ended in 1979, that energy use per capita will show no growth through 2008, and that after 2008 energy growth will become sharply negative, culminating, after a Malthusian catastrophe, in a world population of 2 billion circa 2050. [2]

The Olduvai Theory divides human history into three phases. The first "pre-industrial" phase stretches over most of human history when simple tools and weak machines limited economic growth. The second "industrial" phase encompasses modern industrial civilization where machines temporarily lift all limits to growth. The final "de-industrial" phase follows where industrial economies decline to a period of equilibrium with renewable resources and the natural environment.[3]

The decline of the industrial phase is broken into three sections.

The Olduvai slope (1979–1999) - Energy per capita 'declined at 0.33 %/year'
The Olduvai slide (2000–2011) - 'begins in 2000 with the escalating warfare in the Middle East... marks the all-time peak of world oil production'.
The Olduvai cliff (2012–2030) - 'begins in 2012 when an epidemic of permanent blackouts spreads worldwide, i.e. first there are waves of brownouts and temporary blackouts, then finally the electric power networks themselves expire'

Olduvai theory - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[Twilight]

Just as well you took the time to write what this is about. My computer is so laden down with firewalls that it even slaps me away when I open it!

Its very hard to understand why world leaders just go on and on abusing this world that we live in and don't appear to give a thought to what we are doing to future generations. What can ordinary people do? Its not as if this is a new problem. This debate has been going on for donkeys years and thats what we will end up using. Donkeys.

[blacbloc]

Just as well you took the time to write what this is about. My computer is so laden down with firewalls that it even slaps me away when I open it!

Its very hard to understand why world leaders just go on and on abusing this world that we live in and don't appear to give a thought to what we are doing to future generations. What can ordinary people do? Its not as if this is a new problem. This debate has been going on for donkeys years and thats what we will end up using. Donkeys.

It's a shame you can't see Bartlett's lecture - if you look up his wikipedia entry there are links to other places where you can see/hear/read it. Yep, it's a monumental human tragedy created by those who have pillaged the most and who are terrified of relinquishing their grasp on the world's resources. And these are the only people our governments are ever truly prepared to listen to.

[hopi watcher]

Just as well you took the time to write what this is about. My computer is so laden down with firewalls that it even slaps me away when I open it!

Its very hard to understand why world leaders just go on and on abusing this world that we live in and don't appear to give a thought to what we are doing to future generations. What can ordinary people do? Its not as if this is a new problem. This debate has been going on for donkeys years and thats what we will end up using. Donkeys.

The problem maybe that the political establishment is now populated with people who are there for all the wrong reasons, fame, fortune etc and there are very few who are there solely motivated to serve and do what is in the best interests of the people. Take McCreevy as the classic example.

[cathal maguidhir]

The name Hopi, is a shortened form of what these Native American people call themselves,Template:Fact Hopi'sinom, or "People Who Live in the Correct Way". The catholic encyclopedia lists the name Hopi as having been derived from "Hopita", meaning those who are "peaceful ones". Hopi is a concept deeply rooted in the culture's religion, spirituality, and its view of morality and ethics. To be Hopi is to strive toward this concept, which involves a state of total reverence and respect for all things, to be at peace with these things, and to live in accordance with the instructions of Maasaw, the Creator or Caretaker of Earth. The Hopi observe their traditional ceremonies for the benefit of the entire world.[ame=http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=LFBijDU8PpE]YouTube - Philip Glass - Koyaanisqatsi[/ame]

[goosebump]

Its very hard to understand why world leaders just go on and on abusing this world that we live in and don't appear to give a thought to what we are doing to future generations.

These people are elected. People who are concerned about over-consumption generally aren't elected, because they are portrayed as killjoys. If people elect leaders who facilitate their wasteful lifestyles then it is the people who are to blame, not the leaders.

What can ordinary people do?

They could stop electing people who keep telling them what they want to hear.

ie

There isn't really a problem, and even if there is, we'll all be 6 feet under by the time it hits, so Party On!

[Dillinger]

If you follow the instructions, and run the applet on this site, the results are interesting.


Exponential Growth

[feargach]

If you follow the instructions, and run the applet on this site, the results are interesting.


Exponential Growth

Yeah I´m a fan of the video, although it seriously needs updating for the MTV generation who zone out after 2 minutes.

Use animations showing exponential growth in bikini models, if you want anybody under 35 to listen.