Davys forecast make for sober reading

[kerrynorth]

I hope ye are all sitting down reading this:
GNP to fall -2% in 08 and -3.4% in 09 - my prediction was between 2-3% in 08 and over 3% in 09;
Employment to fall -3.9% in 09 or 1 in 25 to lose their jobs, circa 80k jobs - my prediction is in or around 100k as total employment in the economy falls below 2 million;
Unemployment to hit 8.5% - my prediction is circa 10% but for it to be only 8.5% as Davy predict would require massive net emigration of circa 60k, I just cannot see this with our traditional emigration boltholes not in great shape either;
Exchequer deficit to €18.6billion - I suggested last Saturday on the 2009 estimates thread that it could hit €20billion compared with the estimates provision of €14.8billion.

In contrast to the ESRI who reckoned in their assumptions that consumer spending would grow by 0.5% next year Davys say it will fall -2.8%. It just shows you what muppets the ESRI are in pulling their punches and not wanting to be the first to deliver the bad news to their paymasters in the government.

http://www.davy.ie/content/pubarticl...cr20081013.pdf

[Victor Meldrew]

I hope ye are all sitting down reading this:
GNP to fall -2% in 08 and -3.4% in 09 - my prediction was between 2-3% in 08 and over 3% in 09;
Employment to fall -3.9% in 09 or 1 in 25 to lose their jobs, circa 80k jobs - my prediction is in or around 100k as total employment in the economy falls below 2 million;
Unemployment to hit 8.5% - my prediction is circa 10% but for it to be only 8.5% as Davy predict would require massive net emigration of circa 60k, I just cannot see this with our traditional emigration boltholes not in great shape either;
Exchequer deficit to €18.6billion - I suggested last Saturday on the 2009 estimates thread that it could hit €20billion compared with the estimates provision of €14.8billion.

In contrast to the ESRI who reckoned in their assumptions that consumer spending would grow by 0.5% next year Davys say it will fall -2.8%. It just shows you what muppets the ESRI are in pulling their punches and not wanting to be the first to deliver the bad news to their paymasters in the government.

http://www.davy.ie/content/pubarticl...cr20081013.pdf

Lovely.....

As always, KN, you are there to put a smile on my face, a spring in my step and a song in my heart....


If this depressing Sh1t keeps coming I'm gong to have to resort to watching "X factor" .

Can I get a lobotomy on the HSE? On humanitarian grounds..

[The Red Rose of Cork]

some of the graphs remind me of the outline of a mountain stage on the Tour de France !

[wysiwyg]

I hope ye are all sitting down reading this:
GNP to fall -2% in 08 and -3.4% in 09 - my prediction was between 2-3% in 08 and over 3% in 09;
Employment to fall -3.9% in 09 or 1 in 25 to lose their jobs, circa 80k jobs - my prediction is in or around 100k as total employment in the economy falls below 2 million;
Unemployment to hit 8.5% - my prediction is circa 10% but for it to be only 8.5% as Davy predict would require massive net emigration of circa 60k, I just cannot see this with our traditional emigration boltholes not in great shape either;
Exchequer deficit to €18.6billion - I suggested last Saturday on the 2009 estimates thread that it could hit €20billion compared with the estimates provision of €14.8billion.

In contrast to the ESRI who reckoned in their assumptions that consumer spending would grow by 0.5% next year Davys say it will fall -2.8%. It just shows you what muppets the ESRI are in pulling their punches and not wanting to be the first to deliver the bad news to their paymasters in the government.

http://www.davy.ie/content/pubarticl...cr20081013.pdf

I'd imagine that the net emigration will be helped by a large number of non-Irish workers leaving in 2009/10. There is a lot of work to be done in both London for the Olympics in 2012 and in Poland/Ukraine for the 2012 UEFA Championships...

This may lessen the impact of rising unemployment

Still... very grim news

[David Cochrane]

Never mind X Factor the show you missed last night was Britain's Got The Pop Factor ... And Possibly A New Celebrity Jesus Christ Soapstar Superstar Strictly On Ice.

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKTr7wSLvqY]YouTube - Britain's Got The Pop Factor - Peter Kay (Geraldine) - The Winners Song / Piano- First Rendition - High Quality[/ame]

[slx]

I'd imagine that the net emigration will be helped by a large number of non-Irish workers leaving in 2009/10. There is a lot of work to be done in both London for the Olympics in 2012 and in Poland/Ukraine for the 2012 UEFA Championships...

This may lessen the impact of rising unemployment

Still... very grim news

You're assuming that the Brits can still pay for the 2012 games by the end of the year!!
They're a tad 'fecked' to use an economic term.
Huge projects like that rely heavily on an availability of credit. If the UK Govt ends up uncreditworthy due to bank baleouts the opening ceremony might be the X-Factor winners from 2011

[Oldira1]

How is anyone expected to treat forcasts from the likes of Davys etc with anything other than scepticism? THey did not forsee the property crash, credit crunch or bank collapses. These analysts are a pure joke.

[ManOfReason]

And all of this before the Government really F things up with the Budget tomorrow. Throw in increased PRSI, increased direct taxation, a Carbon Tax plus some lame attempt to re-inflate the property bubble and we will all (all non-government employees that is) be eating spam for Christmas Dinner 2009.

[coc]

Lovely.....

As always, KN, you are there to put a smile on my face, a spring in my step and a song in my heart....


If this depressing Sh1t keeps coming I'm gong to have to resort to watching "X factor" .

Can I get a lobotomy on the HSE? On humanitarian grounds..

Of course you can Sir. There's the small matter of the waiting list of course. If that drags on to long you can apply to the National Treatment Purchase Fund to get it done abroad. That of course assumes the NTMA doesn't give all the NTPF monies to Seán Fitzpatrick.

On second thoughts ... no, you can't have a lobotomy on the HSE.

[Pauli]

Never mind X Factor the show you missed last night was Britain's Got The Pop Factor ... And Possibly A New Celebrity Jesus Christ Soapstar Superstar Strictly On Ice.

YouTube - Britain's Got The Pop Factor - Peter Kay (Geraldine) - The Winners Song / Piano- First Rendition - High Quality

I am sorry I missed this superbly-titled piece of kack. Was it good, Dave?