The game is up Iceland going belly up proves Ireland cant

[PC Zapper]

The game is up Iceland going belly up proves ROI cant possibly keep the daft idea of government garentees as the method of getting out of this mess

The brits are suing Iceland for the money £20,000 for deposit accounts that Iceland cant or wont cough up

Does ROI want to be in that piture as well

Thats where this hair brained Cowenomics FF plan is bringing ROI

The Associated Press: Britain threatens to sue Iceland to protect savers

Iceland now owes 5 times its annual income GNP eg 100 billion euros owed on income of 14 billion euros and reserves of 3 billion Euros

Now Iceland is effectivly bust and a basket case

On Rte this afternoon The Irish bank garentee sytem is now according to economic proffesor Morgan Kelly a dead duck on several fronts (drive time link supplied later )
(this should be the link but typical RTE with employing minimum wagers its not working in this time 6.30pm thursday

Ithink proffesor Kelly was just before 5pm slot or just after 5 pm slot
http://www.rte.ie/radio1/player_av.h...arywilson.smil

This is now the time to admit the game is up and limit the damage and take a more normal economic model of damage limitation

This means probabaly doing what should have been done last week wind up the two weaker banks

Then only help the big four banks on a case by case and if necessary take preferential shares in the banks and demand at least 51% or 50% of the banks so they cant dictate to the government

Then there are many other issues to consider but the first is not to be dumb and go for high and mighty double or nothing on the red casino solutions which could double or triple the amount we may end up owing

Its goonna be difficult to extract from this mess for less than 5 billion according to the experts and might even incur 10billion to stop the melt down

The bank garentees to all banks could get us owing much more even up to 100 billion if it goes pear shaped with a vain hope to exit owing nothing

Hair brained but the collapse of Iceland and the brits suing the Icelandics is strong proof that this method FF has chosen wont work

The UK in every ecomic crisis loses an average of 13% of GNP
In a major crisis like this more maybe more like 25%

This means if the same applies to ROI we are in for 25% of 130Billion or ~40 billion euros

If we get out for 10 billion that will be doing well

The best stratagy is to exit the other end of this meltdown owing the least

Its not too late to go back and say in light of the new events like UK solutions and the lack of success of the USA $700 injection to stem the downward spiral and the Icelandic governments actions reducing the bluffabilty of governments its necessary to reduce the garentee to only deposits of up to something beliveable like 100,000 or 200,000 and the inter bank borrowing is limited to something beliveable like 10Billion


PC Zapper

[seabhcan]

Ireland took a big risk, its true, but nothing like the Icelandic situation.

The debt of Irish banks is 200% of Irish GDP, almost all to domestic customers. Almost all the banks assets (mortgages) are to Irish businesses and homeowners. We are in the euro - which removed currency volitility, but anyway, as both assets and liabilities are contained in the same economy, its not a worry.

Iceland's banks owe 700% of Icelandic GDP. Most of that is to foreign banks. Most of their assets are in foreign countries and denominated in foreign currencies. The currency is plunging, which means that the international debt is soaring in Kronor terms. The more scared investors become, the lower the Kronor falls, the greater the debt burden.

Ireland is in a pickle, but nothing like Iceland, and not as bad as the UK either, which owes 400% of GDP and that debt is denominated in foreign currencies, and the GBP is likely to fall in future by around 20%.

[FutureTaoiseach]

I reject the comparison. €10 billion has reportedly flowed into Irish banks since our guarantee was introduced. Furthermore, the govt claims that Irish financial institutions' assets exceed liabilities by €80 billion.

[seabhcan]

I reject the comparison. €10 billion has reportedly flowed into Irish banks since our guarantee was introduced. Furthermore, the govt claims that Irish financial institutions' assets exceed liabilities by €80 billion.

True, but those assets (loans to developers) are certainly overvalued.

It was still a good decision though.

[PC Zapper]

I reject the comparison. €10 billion has reportedly flowed into Irish banks since our guarantee was introduced. Furthermore, the govt claims that Irish financial institutions' assets exceed liabilities by €80 billion.

In your dreams . Wake up this is real life . Belguim which bought 49% of the two biggest banks Fortis and Dexla ( the equivalent of the BOI and AIB for ROI) and the Belguim government ended up owning 60% of the Belguim banking system .Then this week Belguim would have gone belly up and France had to rescue Belguim with buying up Dexla bank


The Cowen new economic law this week goes to bBelguim to see if it complies with EU law
The best hope is the EU based on two serious events where one country has gone belly up and another is still on shaky terroritry will mean that they shoot the plan down as absurd to useless which it is


The best is to try to go low profile and scrape the economic law as some sort of drink filled bad idea and close down the bar in the dail and blame this crazy plot on too much booze


Wheres the problem lots of countries far bigger than ireland have made an even bigger ****s up of it

From here on in the facts show we will lose some money and if it means two banks have to go to save ROI from going belly up then its better to get it over with and stop ROI incurring huge absurdly big depts that could cost ROI a absolute fortune

Here a link to RTE drive time show at 5pm or there abouts (go to about 9 minutes of the program to hear proffesor Kelly but the first few minutes before that are good also)
http://www.rte.ie/radio1/player_av.h...arywilson.smil

and is what proffesor Morgan Kelly has to say about what the UK did today and its not preety what he thinks of the ROI position
He says it a dead in the water and he lists several good reasons


PC Zapper

[Clanrickard]

In your dreams . Wake up this is real life . Belguim which bought 49% of the two biggest banks Fortis and Dexla ( the equivalent of the BOI and AIB for ROI) and the belguim government ended up owning 60% of thPC Ze beguim banking system .Then this week Belguim would have gone belly up and France had to rescue Beguim with buying up Dexla bank

Enough said. The above shows you haven't a bulls notion what you are on about.

[PC Zapper]

Enough said. The above shows you haven't a bulls notion what you are on about.

And I can say the same about you so where does that get us

If The Irish governments plan doest work we the tax payers will pick up the tab

If I joe soap with my part of the 400Bilion euro garetee the government has imposed on me let the government proceed with the plan and they screw up and we acully incurr 400 Billion dept then each person in ROI will have to find 100,000 euros our part of the plan

Now the Icelandics couldn't do it

Face facts the Cowen plan is like proffessor Morgan Kelly says a dead duck and wont solve the problem and he says cut to the chase and bin two banks if you have too

I as a run of the mill jeo soaps in ROI don't expect miracles from polititions and would prefer if they stuck to run of the mill normal solutions

Whats so special about Ireland that we cant have one or two banks bite the dust
half the planets banks went belly up this week

Us Irish have a indredible ability to delude ourselfs

Time to find the switch off delssion button and close the dail bar down

Iceland goes bust link for those who still think its not true


http://uk.news.yahoo.com/afp/2008100...a-5268574.html

The big french bank buys some of Belguims government banks to help out (for those who dont belive the French saved belguims ass)

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/200810...e-9c520bd.html

A time line of events in the melt down

note 3 rd of october to 6th october to have Fortis belguim branch and Dexia banks taken over buy the belgium government and within a few days France buys up some of the toxic assets or beguim would have been in the ****e

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/200810...y-20b2d2f.html


Just Fortis bank alone was bigger than the whole GNP of Holland 25 million peoples so its not suprising Beguim was choking taking on 49% of it before Dexia went belly up and Belguim had to buy 49% of that also

And the link where France buys the Belguim Dexia bank to save Belguims ass

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/07102008/323...exia-bank.html

PC Zapper

[goosebump]

I reject the comparison. €10 billion has reportedly flowed into Irish banks since our guarantee was introduced. Furthermore, the govt claims that Irish financial institutions' assets exceed liabilities by €80 billion.

If you look at the market capitalisation of the ISEQ Financials today, its value is only €9.9bn

Irish Stock Exchange

So the Government thinks the banks net assets are worth €80bn, and the market thinks the banks net assets are worth about €10bn?

Hmmm.....

[kerrynorth]

If you look at the market capitalisation of the ISEQ Financials today, its value is only €9.9bn

Irish Stock Exchange

So the Government thinks the banks net assets are worth €80bn, and the market thinks the banks net assets are worth about €10bn?

Hmmm.....

Yeah, that is what the market is saying.

[He3]

If you look at the market capitalisation of the ISEQ Financials today, its value is only €9.9bn

Irish Stock Exchange

So the Government thinks the banks net assets are worth €80bn, and the market thinks the banks net assets are worth about €10bn?

Hmmm.....

S'obvious.

Government must be smarter than the market. John Hurley says the finest brians are working on this as we sleep.