Hendry is a hedge fund manager, whilst he may not personally have played a major part in the current challenges, many many of his ilk did with there speculating on the markets, etc and thus have both to bear some responsibilty for the current state of play as well as have the potential to benefit further from it, thus I'd be some what sceptical about what he has to say as it may be less than an unbiased opinion.....Originally Posted by Mr B
I doubt it would bring down the euro, because it is as much a political project as an economic one. Nonetheless there is a question surrounding the possible longterm depressive impact of such policies - if adopted EU-wide - on the value of the currency longterm - which is why I was right to call for the State insurance-scheme to eventually be privatised so that the insurance companies are liable rather than the taxpayer for bailing out banks.
Not an expert, but I suspect his point was that a state guarantee on a massively leveraged system in effect tries to fool everyone into thinking the leverage doesn't exist or doesn't matter. At some point, an Emperor's New Clothes moment is inevitable and the whole thing crashes down. Bloody terrifying.
If I am scared into voting Yes on Lisbon 2 I will be so pissed off. But it's very possible that the blackmail will be so strong and the consequences of a No so scarily unknown that I would bottle my principles and go Yes. Jesus, what a depressing thought.
The euro will be brought down by its inherent contradictions. Common currency but no common dispensation.
It is notable how EU governments acted alone and in their national self-interest, and with scant regard for EU rules on state aid or competition.
Of course they did, they had hours in which to act and there was no time for horse-trading with the 26 other member states. The EU project has been discredited once again.
Indeed the outraged reaction to this necessary step in London, Berlin and Paris should give you some idea of what life could be like for the Irish nation in a post Lisbon EU. In a more integrated EU, decisions would have been made during the banking crisis by the Commission and ECB; these bodies are made up in the majority of people who do not have our best interests at heart. Our banking system would have collapsed reversing 25 years of economic progress and there would have been nothing we could do about it. What would we do to protest this treatment? Vote out our 14 MEPs in an assembly of 751?
Throughout the history of Ireland we have struggled for national self-determination. We have learnt the hard way (the great famine) that foreign government will always fail us in adversity. The events of this week showed the importance of always appointing our neighbours as leaders: differences aside in adversity they have the needs of the Irish people at heart.
Last edited by Rialtas; 4th October 2008 at 08:12 PM.
Nil neart gan cuir le cheile
The Hedge Funds, especially UK based, got creamed when Lenihan brought in the guarantee, so they are naturally very pi$$ed over the whole thing, and whinging to whoever might listen to them.
And as for the EU - they are pi$$ed because Ireland took the initiative and dealt with the problem in one fell swoop, instead of the half assed, inconsistent, carry on that we've seen in other Countries (Belgium has now taken the other 51% in Fortis BE, and Holland is likely to do the same tomorrow).
Ireland isn't going to destroy the Euro. That honour will fall to Italy, with Spain and Portugal taking the runner up positions.
"Always do right. This will gratify some people and astonish the rest." Mark Twain
“When a government is dependent upon bankers for money, they and not the leaders of the government control the situation, since the hand that gives is above the hand that takes. Money has no motherland; financiers are without patriotism and without decency; their sole object is gain.” Napoléon Bonaparte
An article in the Independent today made the point that this is not a bail-out for the banks so much as it is a bail out for the property developers. If there is any decision to be made in the future when a bank needs to liquidate some assets - about whether to put the squeeze on a greedy developer or get the taxpayer to cough up, i wonder where the cosh will fall then... FF's links to the developers have already been established.
Absolutely right. And what's more the solution devised by the officials in the Dept of Finance hasn't cost the Irish taxpayer a penny, unlike Northern Rock which has cost HM treasury £9 billion.
Last edited by Rialtas; 4th October 2008 at 08:54 PM.
Nil neart gan cuir le cheile
Isn't that the difference - McDonalds actually produces goods whereas we (mainly) only provide services. When things get tough people cut back their spending on services before they cut back on goods.
I realise that Fast food isn't an essential but I'll wager that there will be queues at McDonalds long after the Day Spas and Fitness centres have closed and been replaced by Charity shops.
Good post.
The truth is incontrovertible, malice may attack it, ignorance may deride it, but in the end; there it is.
Funnily enough, that's not the case. Our GDP breakdown by sector (2002) is:
Agriculture: 5%
Industry: 46%
Service: 49%
as opposed to, say, the US:
Agriculture: 0.9%
Industry: 24%
Service: 78.6%
Source
I appreciate that's 2002, and our service sector is probably slightly larger now, but we're actually a industrial/export economy, not a service one. Strange but true!
Never let the best be the enemy of the good.
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