Davy: We regret to announce the recession has been delayed.

[freedomlover]

Davy have been the most pessimistic forecasters in Ireland over the years. For the past six months they've been screaming that the economy was in recession, definitely, no ifs or buts, definitely beyond all shadow of doubt it WAS in recession. Not it might be soon in recession, but it definitely allready WAS in recession.

Now, in their daily commentary on RTE today they've come up with this:

http://www.rte.ie/business/2008/morning ... 23davy.pdf

"Second-quarter GNP numbers will be released in Ireland on Thursday September 25th. The figures will probably not be that bad, but they are almost irrelevant at this stage. Probably the most interesting point is
whether the economy enter recession in the quarter. We think it avoided that fate: GNP probably expanded quarter-on-quarter due to stronger exports. But, the economy entered recession in the second half."

As I don't work for Davy, I've no idea what they base their new second-quarter prognosis on. I have no idea if they've had a leak of the figures, or are just guessing. If it turns out to be hooey, its Davy who wrote it, not me. I'm merely the messenger. I'm merely pointing out that their new forecast contradicts everything they've been writing this past six months.

So, having in an instant completely reversed their recession forecast for the second quarter, they now make a new one for the second half of 2008. But, in economic reporting terms, that half has hardly started. No one as yet knows the outcome in the second half of 2008. Its a bit like someone who forecast that Kerry would hammer Tyrone last Sunday saying the error in his forecast was 'almost irrelevant at this stage' as Kerry will hammer Tyrone next year. Well, for both we'll just have to wait and see. But, if they've got the forecast we know the result of wrong, it doesn't inspire confidence in their new one.

They've also revised up their forecast for new house completions in 2008 from 40,000 to 50,000. I myself predicted 52,000 here back in May. It doesn't look too bad a forecast now. Allready 36,000 completed between January and August of 2008.

[smitchy2]

It may not of crossed the line of a technical recession but there is hell of a lot of evidence to suggest we are already suffering from the effects of a recession particularly in record unemployment growth not helped by spiralling energy and living costs. This will lead to more home closures.
I don’t know where you are getting your optimism from for the 2nd half of 2008 when all indicators are pointing that the majority of companies are going to struggle. The global credit market has been crazy for over a year now with enormous interbank rates which are well above officials rates. It does not matter a damn how many houses are going to be built if they are not going to be sold.
This won’t be over for another year at least!

[CelloP]

I (and most sane-minded posters) are not going to bother addressing any threads you start FL.

[meriwether]

Oh dearest me.

[returning officer]

I (and most sane-minded posters) are not going to bother addressing any threads you start FL.

Yes do not feel the need to address hard facts, such as the housing completion numbers. Economic forecasting has once again shown to be no more reliable than astrology.

[meriwether]

I (and most sane-minded posters) are not going to bother addressing any threads you start FL.

Yes do not feel the need to address hard facts, such as the housing completion numbers. Economic forecasting has once again shown to be no more reliable than astrology.

What do you reckon housing start numbers are, RO, for the last 8 months?

And compared to the 8 months of last year?

Give a guess.

[meriwether]

I (and most sane-minded posters) are not going to bother addressing any threads you start FL.

Yes do not feel the need to address hard facts, such as the housing completion numbers. Economic forecasting has once again shown to be no more reliable than astrology.

What do you reckon housing start numbers are, RO, for the last 8 months?

And compared to the 8 months of last year?

Give a guess.

Not interested?

It was 10,000. 10,000 houses were started in Jan-Aug 2008.

And this is a .........66% decline on last year.

D'ya ecknon we'll see 90k completions anytime soon again RO?

[returning officer]

We will never see 90k completions again. But the reason a technical recession was predicted was on the basis of an immediate housing collapse. But it is not like a tap to be turned on and off, hence the predicted recession has not yet happened. Out of interest do you have any data as to where those ten thousand houses are located?

[kerrynorth]

Oh the economy is really flying FL. Two sets of data from the CSO this morning on new car sales and visitor numbers.

New private car sales were down 32% in August and commercial goods down circa 60%.
Plus overseas visitors to Ireland were down 8% in July from July 07 with numbers down 17% from the UK alone. And Irish numbers flowing out of the country is up 6%. People out up 6% those coming in down 8% - I'm sure those are great numbers for the tourism industry.

So whoop it up if you can find some obscure reason to do so FL, none of which actually changes the FACTS.

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/ ... travel.pdf
http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/ ... ehlicm.pdf

[meriwether]

We will never see 90k completions again. But the reason a technical recession was predicted was on the basis of an immediate housing collapse. But it is not like a tap to be turned on and off, hence the predicted recession has not yet happened. Out of interest do you have any data as to where those ten thousand houses are located?

Yes, I do.

4400 in greater Dublin, the rest outside.

So when the tap comes to a drip (the 10k starts) where will our economy be?