Irish Banks

[Anorakphobia]

Firstly, please do not reply to this thread with anything suggesting you heard X bank was in trouble because...

In March this year Irish banks led by Anglo rounded on those who sold their stock with a vengence and in some instances practically demanded that legal action be taken agaisnt those shorting their stock.
They also re-iterated they were financially sound and business was still very strong.
We then had a report that Ireland's fabulousy wealthy builders and developers were clubbing togther to sort out those who had the audacity to sell bank stocks.
"It's our bank and we will give these lads a bloody nose" a typically "unanmed" source stated at the time.

We are now back at all time lows but tellingly there isn't a peep out of any of the above now.
The confidence that was there some months ago is gone, no one in these banks is now prepared to say what they were saying for 6 months up to the end of March, that it's all bull************************ and they are actually in great nick.
Why?
Well who knows but my own opinion is that they now do not have the confidence to give such blanket assurances anymore.

Could it be that the hoardes of international investors who fled these stocks and the hoardes of international banking giants who have advised their clients to get the hell out as fast as possible actually might be right.
That Irish banks might have a real problem.

Why would fellow banks issue strong sell recommendations without genuine concerns?
No one could seriously suggest that Citibank or UBS actualy want to see any bank (Irish or otherwise) fail. So therfore, while they might be proven wrong (and let's all hope they are) I think we can dismiss the possibility that they are doing it for any other reason than they are genuinely fearful for these institutions's future wellbeing.

I will repeat what I have said for nearly a year.
If the senior executives of these companies want to make a serious stand in re-building confidence in their stocks, take a years salary and bonus and declare youa re ploughing teh lot into buying your stock.
The time for arrogant lip service looks passed.

[madura]

Caveat lector. In the past a thread like this prompted me to remove a small deposit from an Irish bank that was supposed to be in imminent danger. The bank did not collapse and the main result to date has been that I forfeited the interest I would otherwise have earned on the money. Bah!

[Tizona]

What'd ye do with the cash?
Stick it under the matress?

[madura]

What'd ye do with the cash?
Stick it under the matress?

It's in a no-yield account from which it can be withdrawn without notice. That's what happens when you put the frighteners on people.

[Treehouse]

On BBC Newsnight recently their economics editor said that there was a 5% chance of one of the major British banks collapsing (that means Lloyds, Barclays, NatWest etc.). Couldn't believe what I was hearing - that's a long shot, but a pretty damn short long shot. (For what it's worth, the reporter was almost certainly quoting a third party who had said this, but I cannot remember who that was).

Frankly, I don't understand why anyone in Ireland with a decent lump sum on deposit doesn't have it in Northern Rock. The most secure bank in the world and the highest interest rate available in the country. Seems like the biggest no-brainer of all time to me.

[Oldira]

There is no doubt that there will be a casualty in the banking sector this year. How bad I do not know but trying to deny it is just whistling past the graveyard. I work in finance and munerouus contacts in banking circles and there is indeed a large degree of concern. Perhaps if all banks now issued there expected bad debts/write offs figures for 2008 then at least we could get a clear picture and investors may then regain confidence in bank stocks. This drip feeding of bad news is not helping.

[expat girl]

On BBC Newsnight recently their economics editor said that there was a 5% chance of one of the major British banks collapsing (that means Lloyds, Barclays, NatWest etc.). Couldn't believe what I was hearing - that's a long shot, but a pretty damn short long shot. (For what it's worth, the reporter was almost certainly quoting a third party who had said this, but I cannot remember who that was).

Frankly, I don't understand why anyone in Ireland with a decent lump sum on deposit doesn't have it in Northern Rock. The most secure bank in the world and the highest interest rate available in the country. Seems like the biggest no-brainer of all time to me.

ah yes, but can the UK government afford to bail out anything the size of Barclays etc??? Come to that, could our own lot bail out BoI or AIB??
They were actually in profit last year, most of the problems seem to be with people deciding they need a better deposit base at the moment...hence rights issues etc.

The problems will really start once the live register hits about 300,000... especially if high earners with big mortgages start being laid off.
It mightn't happen, it is all down to the oil price, which is, in turn, responsible for inflation. As long as we can maintain close to current employment levels we'll be allright as home repayments tend to be the last thing to go

But that is a big "if".....especially if the ECB raises rates.

[Squire Allworthy]

Perhaps if all banks now issued there expected bad debts/write offs figures for 2008 then at least we could get a clear picture and investors may then regain confidence in bank stocks. This drip feeding of bad news is not helping.

A lot more truth would go a long way to restoring confidence. We may be at the stage that the actual problem may be bad but what many are assuming is a whole lot worse.

I have no money other than what I need to live on in Irish Banks. There was a rumour doing the rounds that a major UK Bank was in trouble but that was in the back half of last year and so far nothing has happened. I take the view that with each passing month the crisis is passing.

I agree oil is the real problem right now and I am less than sure that raising interest rates is the way to deal with it.