Negative gazumping on house purchases?

[Tizona]

I don't need 'proof'...

Here endeth the lesson!

Savings from declining prices.

Oh Hanley! You've fecked up BIG TIME here.
I happen to have - right here on my computer - the very same SCS Build Cost chart you favour, but from 2006 (which I think you'll agree was the height of the boom).

According to the SCS, the build cost per SqM of a Detached House in 2008 is 2,071 euro (Dublin Area).
According to the same table from 2006 - the build cost for a detached house was 1,942 euro (Dublin Area).

So Hanley, I'm sorry to tell you, your savings are going backwards. You are losing money.
Now who's the fool?

Your build cost has risen by 129 euro per SqM, so your 2,000 Sqft house (approx 200 Sqm) is now going to cost you 25,800 euro more than in 2006.

Now remember Hanley- before you fly off the handle in a foul mouthed rage - this is YOUR chosen source.
To quote you 'these prices are "presumably as sticky as selling prices".
If you say so Hanley.

What you seem to forget (again) is that commodity prices are rising, and costs of transport are rising.
Hanley,the bad news is - if you expect 'savings' to pay for your site - you're gonna be renting for many, many years.

Sigh all you want. A decline of 5.5% in bank stocks has little or no relevance to me. You were suggesting that the effect of a drop in property prices was comparable to the effect of a decline in bank stocks to bank deposits. It clearly isn't.

Whatever you thought was implied is not the point here Hanley. Its in black and white.The point I was making - and which you thrice denied - was that I was correct in saying Bank share prices fell 5.5% in one day.
Its simple, you were wrong in denying that, so stop struggling and accept defeat.

Now who is the doom monger?

If the Banks fail it'll be because of vultures like yourself cheering on the property crash. Ergo, you will be the author of your own downfall ultimately. Chickens and Eggs Hanley. Chickens and Eggs.

Put your money where your mouth is now or shut up. Show me the property. Show me one property on the market now where the rent would service the mortgage.

I'll be glad to do that for you, when you show me where you're getting 6.6% on a deposit account in Ireland.

Show me where I said they were uniform. In fact I said quite the opposite you fool.

Hanley I know I'm getting to ya, but try to control your temper. Using abusive terms just makes you sound like a loser.

It's still an option. You are not precluded from renting. You truly are a fool.

There you go again. I think the way you screwed up on the SCS values is more indicative of who is being foolish around here. Try to control yourself in future if you expect me to engage with you.
I suggest you sleep it off.
Nite Nite.

[Dreaded_Estate]

So, in summary, you have absolutely NO PROOF of this assertion that people are burning down their homes 'all over the country'. Your source is 'newspapers' (and you haven't even given a single link). I think we can all see you're talking nonsense.

I work for an insurance company and it is a well know fact that the incidence of home/building insurance claims increases when the economic cycle turns.

Why are you so angry? Just calm down it is only a discussion on the internet, no one is attacking you personally we are just trying to discuss house prices in Ireland.

[HanleyS]

Savings from declining prices.

Oh Hanley! You've fecked up BIG TIME here.

Actually I haven't. I mentioned that build costs might be more sticky. As it turned out the decreases in values have taken longer to filter into decreases in costs. They will fall.

So Hanley, I'm sorry to tell you, your savings are going backwards. You are losing money.
Now who's the fool?

Not at all. There are thousands of empty houses around the country. We won't need new builds for several years.

Whatever you thought was implied is not the point here Hanley. Its in black and white.The point I was making - and which you thrice denied - was that I was correct in saying Bank share prices fell 5.5% in one day.
Its simple, you were wrong in denying that, so stop struggling and accept defeat.

If that wasn't your implication then I was mistaken. Your point then had no relevance in the context of declining value of property.

If the Banks fail it'll be because of vultures like yourself cheering on the property crash. Ergo, you will be the author of your own downfall ultimately. Chickens and Eggs Hanley. Chickens and Eggs.

Yes, I am happy to see the property bubble burst. It has had a net negative effect on this country.

Put your money where your mouth is now or shut up. Show me the property. Show me one property on the market now where the rent would service the mortgage.

I'll be glad to do that for you, when you show me where you're getting 6.6% on a deposit account in Ireland.

I won't divulge information that is personal to me, nor have I asked you too, but I will illustrate how it can be done:

Demand Deposit Account:
First Active - 5.22% up to €15,000
Halifax - 5.15% up to €10,000
Northern Rock - 5% up to €3,000,000

Regular Saver Accounts
Anglo Irish Bank - €1,000 per month at 8% AER
Irish Nationwide - €1,000 per month at 7.35% AER
AIB - €300 per month at 7.3%
First Active - €1,000 per month at 7.15%
Halifax - €350 per month at 7%
BOI - €500 per month at 7%
Anglo - €1000 per month at 7%

Demand deposit accounts feeding regualr savers will beat 6.6% AER. Now you show me the property that will yield 5.5% i.e. break even at current market prices.

Show me where I said they were uniform. In fact I said quite the opposite you fool.

Hanley I know I'm getting to ya, but try to control your temper. Using abusive terms just makes you sound like a loser.

You have persisted to use personally abusive language to me throughout this thread. Now you start whinging when the shoe is on the other foot. Deal with it you fool.

Try to control yourself in future if you expect me to engage with you.

I pity you.

[Centurian]

Tizona is in complete denial about the realities of the current Irish Property Market - and attacks anyone who has the audacity to actually post some facts ! - I wonder why ? - Is he (she ? ) in negative equity or something ? .

[Tizona]

I mentioned that build costs might be more sticky. As it turned out the decreases in values have taken longer to filter into decreases in costs. They will fall.

Hanley it was you yourself who pulled out that link to the Chartered Surveyors build costs. It was you yourself who used it to demonstrate that build costs would fall and 'the savings' would buy you a site for your house.
Your own link has proven you wrong - misguided even. Your build cost has been rising.

Now you tell us you know better than the Chartered Surveyors, and their figures are wrong - because you say 'They Will Fall'.

According to the Chartered Surveyors the build costs in 2008 are expected to be 7% higher than in 2006. With inflation running at 4% you can expect them to be higher again next year, even if there is a slump in building activity.

Where is this predicted fall in costs coming from Hanley? Everyone but you seems to think costs are rising in this economy!
Build costs will not fall, because raw materials are getting more expensive.

Not at all. There are thousands of empty houses around the country. We won't need new builds for several years.

Well thats a whole other argument Hanley. Lets put your point to bed first. You pulled that table out to prove you could build a 2,000 Sqft house for 350K. So that is the value of a 2,000 Sqft house.
I pointed out that you had not included the cost of a site, or fees, or groundworks.
You said the falling cost of building would pay for those.
I proved you wrong with figures from the same source.
Do you accept you were wrong in your assertion? If so we'll move on to your next error.

If that wasn't your implication then I was mistaken. Your point then had no relevance in the context of declining value of property.

I think my point has total relevance, because I keep pointing out to you that falling bank share prices puts your capital at risk.

Yes, I am happy to see the property bubble burst. It has had a net negative effect on this country.

The boom was built on property values Hanley, so given your logic we should be back in 1980, and better off there.
Well perhaps you'll get your wish, then we can all emigrate again.

I won't divulge information that is personal to me, nor have I asked you too, but I will illustrate how it can be done:

Regular Saver Accounts
Anglo Irish Bank - €1,000 per month at 8% AER

You do realise that Anglo is the bank everyone is predicting will go under in the next few months?

Now you show me the property that will yield 5.5% i.e. break even at current market prices.

A two bedroom house in this development http://www.hamptonwood.com/overview.htm costs 265K. A 90% mortgage would cost 1155 per month, and it can be rented at 1100 a month easily. Alternatively, take out an interest only loan, with repayments at 1000 per month.
When the difference between renting and buying your own home is that small - people ultimately want a home of their own, even you said you'll buy. Your cold calculations totally ignore the desire to settle down in a fixed spot, and not be at the whim of a Landlord.

You have persisted to use personally abusive language to me throughout this thread. Now you start whinging when the shoe is on the other foot. Deal with it you fool.

Hanley I think I should report your verbal abuse to a mod. But in the meantime I'd like you to show me where I used abusive language to you. Go back now and give me a direct quote.
I've criticised your arguments, and I've ridiculed your points. Thats part of the rough and tumble of debate. But I always studiously avoid calling anyone 'a fool' directly, because I've always felt it rebounds on the poster. I may ask people if they feel foolish, but I don't sink to the level of personal vitriolic abuse.
Except against Muj, perhaps.

I'd like you to apologise and withdraw your remarks before we proceed any further.

[Tizona]

Why are you so angry? Just calm down it is only a discussion on the internet, no one is attacking you personally we are just trying to discuss house prices in Ireland.

Are you referring to HanleyS here? Its unclear who you are referring to.

By the way - on the subject of houses - do you have a point you'd like to make?

[Tizona]

Tizona is in complete denial about the realities of the current Irish Property Market - and attacks anyone who has the audacity to actually post some facts ! - I wonder why ? - Is he (she ? ) in negative equity or something ? .

HanleyS 'facts' keep turning out to be a bit wrong, exaggerrated, over pessimistic, or misleading.

The 'reality' is that there is a cadre of posters, refugees from AAM, PropertyPin, boards.ie and elsewhere, who have begun infesting this website, and pushing their agenda to talk down the property market, while gloating and jeering at the mayhem. I'm providing the counter-point. Someone has to, because you lot seem to expect a free ride.

By the way, don't be lazy - read the thread before speculating on my personal finances.

[Centurian]

Build costs will not fall, because raw materials are getting more expensive.

Complete ultra-simplistic Horlicks ! - Building material costs are only a relatively small part of the selling price of new property. There's also the price of the site and the huge profits added on by the developers (until the bubble burst ! ).......

[Centurian]

I'm providing the counter-point. Someone has to, because you lot seem to expect a free ride.

You're providing nothing - Your posts are nonsensical ! .

[Tizona]

Build costs will not fall, because raw materials are getting more expensive.

Complete ultra-simplistic Horlicks ! - Building material costs are only a relatively small part of the selling price of new property. There's also the price of the site and the huge profits added on by the developers (until the bubble burst ! )

Well thank you for that!
I've been trying to tell Hanley all along that he'll never build a 2,000 Sqft house for 300K (in the Dublin area anyhow) because (as you rightly point out) A SITE COSTS A LOT OF MONEY.
Hanley priced the house on build cost only - ignoring site cost, groundworks, and professional fees.

Keep reminding him!
Land is required to BUILD a house on.