Fianna Fail will allow the Irish People, to me milked like Milch Cows, by the CIF through high house prices, rents, and land prices, at the expense of competitiveness,and quality of life. FF+CIF=1
hardly surprising,the F/X rate makes it harder to sell to non Euro zone countries, the recessions in the UK & US (though US exports grew some what) hurt esp sectors that are descressionary spend (waterford crystal, for example). With regard to the computer one, given that the majority of those export numbers are made of Dell exports (and intel chips) and with the new European manufactoring plant in Dell it will obliviously mean a decrease in computer exports from Ireland as that factor ramps up and increases its output into the european market.....
Enda Kenny on FF government: “We’re in this mess, not because Fianna Fáil policies have failed, but because they have succeeded.”
It can't be good for employment
Fianna Fail will allow the Irish People, to me milked like Milch Cows, by the CIF through high house prices, rents, and land prices, at the expense of competitiveness,and quality of life. FF+CIF=1
nope, though i still expect FT and FL to tell us its actually good news for the economy and for Ireland Inc.Originally Posted by mairteenpak
Enda Kenny on FF government: “We’re in this mess, not because Fianna Fáil policies have failed, but because they have succeeded.”
If its part of a trend it will have a big effect on the exchequer,as corporation taxes will be effected.
Fianna Fail will allow the Irish People, to me milked like Milch Cows, by the CIF through high house prices, rents, and land prices, at the expense of competitiveness,and quality of life. FF+CIF=1
<Mod>Moved to the Economy forum.</Mod>
Heavy words are so lightly thrown.
Where is FL? I'm starting to get desperatenope, though i still expect FT and FL to tell us its actually good news for the economy and for Ireland Inc.
Veni, vidi, arrivederci
That's because we understand statistics, which is more than can be said for the author of this thread or for journalists who write on these things.nope, though i still expect FT and FL to tell us its actually good news for the economy and for Ireland Inc.
Also, you will note that Kerrynorth is conspicuous by his absence on this thread. Its usually Kerrynorth who is the first to open a thread anytime bad economic news is published (normally within about 2 milliseconds of the news being published). Whatever disagreements I have with him, I do recognise his statistical expertise and, when he fails to throw his pennyworth into a 'doom and gloom' thread, its a fair bet he's steering clear of it because he can see that its built on sand. If he did contribute to this thread, I'm sure he'd agree with the following comments:
(1) The figures are distorted because this year Easter was in March - last year it was in April.
(2) To iron out distortions such as (1), the CSO seasonally-adjusts the monthly figures. When seasonally-adjusted, the value of merchandise exports was down 5.5% in March, not 15%.
(3) Apart alltogether from the sort of distortion explained above, monthly figures are extremely volatile. That's why all reputable economists will focus on quarterly figures rather than monthly figures. When this is done, the value of merchandise exports was down 2.9% year-on-year in Q1.
(4) The figures refer to value in euros, not volume. That is, the value in euros of merchandise exports in Q1 2008 was about 2.9% lower than in Q1 2007. As you will be aware, the euro is about 15% higher in value against the dollar and sterling than it was a year ago. A large chunk of Irish exports go to non-Euro countries and are priced in dollars or sterling. That means this year export (and indeed import) prices are down year-on-year. The CSO hasn't yet published its export (and import) unit price indices for Q1 2008 yet. But, based on what they were in Q4 2007, I'd say export prices were down 5% to 6% in Q1 2008 as compared with Q1 2007. So, although I can't be precise right now, its pretty certain that when the CSO eventually publishes volume figures for merchandise exports (and imports) in Q1 2008, they will show the volume of merchandise exports up 2% to 3% on Q1 2007. In addition, the volume of merchandise exports in Q1 2007 was higher than for any other quarter of 2007 or for any year before. So, although again I can't be precise right now, I'd say its 99% certain that the volume of merchandise exports in Q1 2008 hit an all-time high. Confirmation of this should come from the CSO in a month or so.
(5) The figures refer to merchandise exports only. In recent years service exports have been growing far faster than merchandise exports. In 2007 merchandise exports increased by 5%, but service exports increased by 15%. For more information on this. read the excellent article by Dr. Garret Fitzgerald in the Irish Times last Saturday.
(6) The figures show an increase in the merchandise trade surplus of 1,320 million euros in Q1 2008 as compared with Q4 2007. This is the equivalent of 3% of quarterly GDP. In other words, its a massive improvement in the external trade balance. I don't wish to dampen anyone's hopes, but that means there is about an even chance that this will scupper any possibility of Q1 2008 showing negative growth on Q4 2007. I can't be certain, as no monthly figures are published for services exports, but, if we assume that there was no change in the quarterly trade balance for services exports, then the 3% addition to GDP resulting from the 1,320 million euros increase in the merchandise trade surplus should more than cancel out the falls in GDP resulting from reduced house completions. For Q1 2008 to show negative growth, it will now probably require the trade balance in services exports to deteriorate in Q1 2008. I can't rule out this possibility (simply because no monthly statistics are published for services exports), but the merchandise trade figures published today significantly reduce the chances that we are in a recession, although they don't eliminate that possibility completely.
That's because we understand statistics, which is more than can be said for the author of this thread or for journalists who write on these things.nope, though i still expect FT and FL to tell us its actually good news for the economy and for Ireland Inc.
Also, you will note that Kerrynorth is conspicuous by his absence on this thread. Its usually Kerrynorth who is the first to open a thread anytime bad economic news is published (normally within about 2 milliseconds of the news being published). Whatever disagreements I have with him, I do recognise his statistical expertise and, when he fails to throw his pennyworth into a 'doom and gloom' thread, its a fair bet he's steering clear of it because he can see that its built on sand. If he did contribute to this thread, I'm sure he'd agree with the following comments:
(1) The figures are distorted because this year Easter was in March - last year it was in April.
(2) To iron out distortions such as (1), the CSO seasonally-adjusts the monthly figures. When seasonally-adjusted, the value of merchandise exports was down 5.5% in March, not 15%.
(3) Apart alltogether from the sort of distortion explained above, monthly figures are extremely volatile. That's why all reputable economists will focus on quarterly figures rather than monthly figures. When this is done, the value of merchandise exports was down 2.9% year-on-year in Q1.
(4) The figures refer to value in euros, not volume. That is, the value in euros of merchandise exports in Q1 2008 was about 2.9% lower than in Q1 2007. As you will be aware, the euro is about 15% higher in value against the dollar and sterling than it was a year ago. A large chunk of Irish exports go to non-Euro countries and are priced in dollars or sterling. That means this year export (and indeed import) prices are down year-on-year. The CSO hasn't yet published its export (and import) unit price indices for Q1 2008 yet. But, based on what they were in Q4 2007, I'd say export prices were down 5% to 6% in Q1 2008 as compared with Q1 2007. So, although I can't be precise right now, its pretty certain that when the CSO eventually publishes volume figures for merchandise exports (and imports) in Q1 2008, they will show the volume of merchandise exports up 2% to 3% on Q1 2007. In addition, the volume of merchandise exports in Q1 2007 was higher than for any other quarter of 2007 or for any year before. So, although again I can't be precise right now, I'd say its 99% certain that the volume of merchandise exports in Q1 2008 hit an all-time high. Confirmation of this should come from the CSO in a month or so.
(5) The figures refer to merchandise exports only. In recent years service exports have been growing far faster than merchandise exports. In 2007 merchandise exports increased by 5%, but service exports increased by 15%. For more information on this. read the excellent article by Dr. Garret Fitzgerald in the Irish Times last Saturday.
(6) The figures show an increase in the merchandise trade surplus of 1,320 million euros in Q1 2008 as compared with Q4 2007. This is the equivalent of 3% of quarterly GDP. In other words, its a massive improvement in the external trade balance. I don't wish to dampen anyone's hopes, but that means there is about an even chance that this will scupper any possibility of Q1 2008 showing negative growth on Q4 2007. I can't be certain, as no monthly figures are published for services exports, but, if we assume that there was no change in the quarterly trade balance for services exports, then the 3% addition to GDP resulting from the 1,320 million euros increase in the merchandise trade surplus should more than cancel out the falls in GDP resulting from reduced house completions. For Q1 2008 to show negative growth, it will now probably require the trade balance in services exports to deteriorate in Q1 2008. I can't rule out this possibility (simply because no monthly statistics are published for services exports), but the merchandise trade figures published today significantly reduce the chances that we are in a recession, although they don't eliminate that possibility completely.
Phew, that explains it, thanks FL, I knew I could count on you.
Everythings OK folks, back to the boom.
Veni, vidi, arrivederci
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