March shopping footfall down 17% on March 07: SBP

[spalpeen]

And just so we won't feel all alone on this one :

[color=#FF0040]Retailing Chains Caught in a Wave of Bankruptcies[/color]
New York Times
April 15, 2008
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/15/busin ... ref=slogin

"The consumer spending slump and tightening credit markets are unleashing a widening wave of bankruptcies in American retailing, prompting thousands of store closings that are expected to remake suburban malls and downtown shopping districts across the country.
Since last fall, eight mostly midsize chains — as diverse as the furniture store Levitz and the electronics seller Sharper Image — have filed for bankruptcy protection as they staggered under mounting debt and declining sales.
But the troubles are quickly spreading to bigger national companies, like Linens ‘n Things, the bedding and furniture retailer with 500 stores in 47 states. It may file for bankruptcy as early as this week, according to people briefed on the matter.
Even retailers that can avoid bankruptcy are shutting down stores to preserve cash through what could be a long economic downturn. Over the next year, Foot Locker said it would close 140 stores, Ann Taylor will start to shutter 117, and the jeweler Zales will close 100..."

[freedomlover]

[quote=Bray Head][quote="Ard-Taoiseach":38qhqax1]

I heard the crowd that compile it on the radio during the week. It didn't sound exactly scientific - some lad stands at the top of Grafton Street with a clicker - and there is presumably also a host of non commercial reasons why less people might have walked past where the guy was standing - other routes etc. Interesting statistics nonetheless.

IS that how they measure these things? Really? I thought they had sensors on either end of the street which clicked every time some-one stepped on them. If it's just a lad with a clicker then I think we can safely dis-regard these sort of indicators. How can one person calculate the exact number of people going up one street in one month? They'd have to have an army of people clicking on the streets for an accurate reading. I have never seen anything like that on my travels through the beautiful thoroughfares of Grafton and Henry St so this information must be inaccurate.[/quote:38qhqax1]

I did this job a few years ago and in fact the whole process is actually extremely scientific. You stand in the middle of the street with your back to a colleague and you each press your thumb down on the clicker every time someone goes one way, while another couple does the same at the other end of the street. The numbers on the clickers are collated on the hour in case a device fails or one of the counters decides to go missing.

As far as I know figures are compared with those for a similar weekend on previous years, taking into consideration things like weather conditions and particular events that might either add or subtract from numbers. Statistics are then compared in order to set rents on the particular street or shopping centre.

From a nerdy point of view what we are dealing with is a population rather than a sample, which gives the figures far more credibility than some of the statistics given far more attention on this website (monthly opinion polls with movements inside appreciable margins of error for example).[/quote:38qhqax1]

I think there are two companies that compile these figures. One is CB Richard Ellis and the other is Experian. I think Experian is the major one and their figures are highly regarded, while CB Richard Ellis only does it on a small scale. CB Richard Ellis only compile figures for a handful of streets like Grafton Street and Henry Street, while Experian compile them for a large and representative sample of both streets and shopping centres. As far as I know, the figures the Sunday Business Post gave in its report last week were Experian's.

My post yesterday wasn't to challenge Experian's figures, but to point out the highly selective leaking of them by SBP. They obviously had Experian's figures a week ago, but they selectively leaked the worst ones to make it appear that the national shopping footfall was down 17% in March compared with March 2007. These were what kerrynorth posted, presumably in good faith, and which is still misleadingly the title of this thread. I myself foolishly assumed that the SBP report was true and took the 17% fall figure at face value. It was only when Experian released their full figures yesterday, showing that the national shopping footfall was actually UP 1.2% in March compared with March 2007, that it became apparent the SBP report was totally misleading.

As for whether an increase of 1.2% in the national shopping footfall in March, and a decrease of 2.1% in the first quarter is good or bad, we won't know until the retail sales figures for February and March are published. All we know is that in 2007 Experian's figures showed the national shopping footfall down by an even bigger margin than 2.1%, yet retail sales volume increased by about 6%. And, in the U. Kingdom, Experian's figures show their national shopping footfall down 4.9% in the first quarter of 2008, but their retail sales volume figures were up by around 4%.

[kerrynorth]

The last two Irish economy bulls indulging in mutual on-line statistical manipulation.

Maybe we should just stuff and mount both freedomlover and aul Ard-Taoiseach, the last of Mohicans, so that future generations of p.iesters can look and point in amazement at their naivity.

[kerrynorth]

Down -2.1% Q1 08 on Q1 07 when it also states that the early Easter ADDED to footfall. Yeah pure hogwash FL! Your not comparing like with like either FL as this report includes shopping centres. And how could the 'High St' figures from the SBP be 'lies' and this report be 'the truth' when the data comes from the same source - Experian!

You titled your thread "March shopping footfall down 17% on March 07".

We now know that was totally inaccurate, and that the March shopping footfall was UP 1.2% on March 07.

Do you deny that or not?

Accept your responsibility and apologise for opening a thread with a completely inaccurate title, even if you did so inadvertently from being naive enough to believe what you read in the SBP.

The SBP lied because they deliberately selected unrepresentative statistics from the set they had available. If they had access to the Experian figures, they'd have known that the national footfall was UP 1.2% in March, but they failed to mention this in their report and deliberately only gave the figures for a few streets in order to give the impression that it was down by 17% in March.

Could the moderators please change the title of the thread to: "March shopping footfall UP 1.2% on March 07:"?

The thread title accurately reflected the article. If the article said that "apples are good for you" and I posted it up as "oranges are good for you" then you would have a case. However, the title I posted accurately reflected the article. You are welcome to dispute its contents. That is what this site is for. But I do not know why you are looking for the title to be changed when its only because you disagree with its contents rather than any wrongdoing in misrepresenting its contents on my behalf.

As to the substance of the article it concerns what would be called the traditional 'High Street' shopping areas whereas the stats in the finfacts article are a more global footfall measure including shopping centres. Therefore, you are comparing apples and oranges. The SBP article never made any other claim other than the traditional High Street shopping streets were also all way down on the last two weekends in March.

[Timenowplease]

Hi - Just wanted to point out that the SB Post used the CBRE figures and not the Experian ones. Look back on the Sunday B Post site. As far as i know Experian use computers and scanners and all that jazz to calculate the figures in centres nationwide - they seem to sell this service to the retailers as a way of monitoring how busy their shops are. It is a lot more scientific than empolying a couple of students, giving them a couple of clickers and counting the people who pass by - can you imagine how quickly they lost intrest and headed to the pub!

This happens all the time - a credible provider of information, such as Experian or Permanent tsb (house price index for example)get good publicity from good, research based, figures and then another organisaton such as CBRE or Daft.ie try to replicate that type of press release with figures compiled from a smaller sample.

[Timenowplease]

Down -2.1% Q1 08 on Q1 07 when it also states that the early Easter ADDED to footfall. Yeah pure hogwash FL! Your not comparing like with like either FL as this report includes shopping centres. And how could the 'High St' figures from the SBP be 'lies' and this report be 'the truth' when the data comes from the same source - Experian!

Hi - Just wanted to point out that the SB Post used the CBRE figures and not the Experian ones. Look back on the Sunday B Post site. As far as i know Experian use computers and scanners and all that jazz to calculate the figures in centres nationwide - they seem to sell this service to the retailers as a way of monitoring how busy their shops are. It is a lot more scientific than empolying a couple of students, giving them a couple of clickers and counting the people who pass by - can you imagine how quickly they lost intrest and headed to the pub!

This happens all the time - a credible provider of information, such as Experian or Permanent tsb (house price index for example)get good publicity from good, research based, figures and then another organisaton such as CBRE or Daft.ie try to replicate that type of press release with figures compiled from a smaller sample.

[freedomlover]

Hi - Just wanted to point out that the SB Post used the CBRE figures and not the Experian ones. Look back on the Sunday B Post site. As far as i know Experian use computers and scanners and all that jazz to calculate the figures in centres nationwide - they seem to sell this service to the retailers as a way of monitoring how busy their shops are. It is a lot more scientific than empolying a couple of students, giving them a couple of clickers and counting the people who pass by - can you imagine how quickly they lost intrest and headed to the pub!

This happens all the time - a credible provider of information, such as Experian or Permanent tsb (house price index for example)get good publicity from good, research based, figures and then another organisaton such as CBRE or Daft.ie try to replicate that type of press release with figures compiled from a smaller sample.

Very well. I accept that. It was kerrynorth who said in his 2.49pm post yesterday that they were Experian's, a genuine mistake I'm sure.

It doesn't alter the fact that the Sunday Business Post Report is now revealed as scaremongering hogwash. I trust they'll put it right next Sunday.

[Ard-Taoiseach]

The last two Irish economy bulls indulging in mutual on-line statistical manipulation.

Haven't you been reading this thread properly? It is kerrynorth who is engaging in statistical manipulation. It is kerrynorth who is lying so that another sensationalist bear thread can appear in this fourm. It is kerrynorth who is selectively using figures to utterly mis-represent the situation an yet only freedomlover has pulled him up on this.

kerrynorth is propagating SBP lies with this thread. If the title had said it was up 1.2% on March last year, but down 2.1% on a quarterly basis, I'd have no problem.