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  1. #21
    owedtojoy owedtojoy is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by katsung47 View Post
    944. See how big the bubble is (1/25/2017)

    17 years ago, I found the Feds moved the area residents away and bought in houses in large scale. (see #733, 734, 736. CASH FOR HOUSE). As early as 2003, I warned of a housing bubble. (see #180. Beware of housing bubble (11/16/03))That bubble keeps growing up until now. I think that's because They failed to eliminate Kat Sung. The result is: San Jose becomes No.1 highest median house price city (where I live) and San Franciso is the No.2. (Where my mother and sisters live).

    Here is a chart of median home sale prices of San Francisco. The curve is accordant to the persecution course the Feds apply on me. The unusual upward price started from 1993. Though the chart author thought there were two bubbles, it is still a big one in fact. The bubble stopped growing up in 2008 due to financial tsunami but the Feds managed to prevent it from breaking. The down turn was mild. Even in lowest point of 2011, it's 695,000. Double the amount of starting price.




    From steep curve you may see how big this bubble is.
    Perfect moment for the Rethuglicans to repeal all the regulatory checks on Wall Street banks enacted in the wake of the 2008 crash.

    Back to the Future!

    House votes to roll back Wall Street rules, reduce oversight put in place after 2008 crisis

    Trump is looking like George W Bush's 3rd term.
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  2. #22
    katsung47 katsung47 is offline

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    Illinois Economic Collapse Is Near, Two Other States Will Follow In It’s Footsteps – Prepare For The Imminent Economic Collapse
    BY IWB JULY 4, 2017

    The mismanagement of Illinois by government bureaucrats and politicians have plunged the state into a dire economic abyss. But SGTReport is predicting that other states will fall just as quickly, and you won’t be surprised in the least when your hear which ones are doomed to suffer an economic collapse soon.

    Illinois could be expected to slash pensions to 30 cents on the dollar to help stave off the harsh reality of nanny state policies and socialist promises.

    [WATCH] Illinois Economic Collapse Is Near, Two Other States Will Follow In It?s Footsteps ? Prepare For The Imminent Economic Collapse – InvestmentWatch
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  3. #23
    gerhard dengler gerhard dengler is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by katsung47 View Post
    Illinois Economic Collapse Is Near, Two Other States Will Follow In Its Footsteps Prepare For The Imminent Economic Collapse
    BY IWB JULY 4, 2017

    The mismanagement of Illinois by government bureaucrats and politicians have plunged the state into a dire economic abyss. But SGTReport is predicting that other states will fall just as quickly, and you wont be surprised in the least when your hear which ones are doomed to suffer an economic collapse soon.

    Illinois could be expected to slash pensions to 30 cents on the dollar to help stave off the harsh reality of nanny state policies and socialist promises.

    [WATCH] Illinois Economic Collapse Is Near, Two Other States Will Follow In It?s Footsteps ? Prepare For The Imminent Economic Collapse InvestmentWatch
    Obama represented Illinois.

    I reckon there are several states in the Union which are financially banjaxed.
    Michigan would be a contender too. Several Eurozone banks were the buyer of bonds issued for cities such as Detroit. How will these bonds get honoured come pay day?

    Has the State got the capacity to bail out each banjaxed state?
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  4. #24
    katsung47 katsung47 is offline

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    The problem?

    They haven’t been selling cars as fast as years past… and the inventory of unsold new cars is exploding! Just In 2017, car sales are down 70% in some segments.

    And while the car dealerships would love it if everyone would buy a new car at full retail price… The fact remains that they’ve been forced by a huge backlog of inventory to quietly advertise massively discounted deals online.


    http://www.thedailylifer.com/buy-a-b...=4725&off=1773
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  5. #25
    katsung47 katsung47 is offline

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    Housing Recovery False Alarm - Starts, Permits Plunge In July As Rental Units Collapse

    by Tyler Durden 8/16/2017

    Following June's huge surprise jumps in Housing Starts (revised lower) and Building Permits (revised notably higher), July saw both starts and permits plunge (-4.8% and -4.1% respectively) dramatically missing expectations. The majority of the plunge is driven by multi-family starts crashing 35.2% YoY to its lowest since Sept 2016.

    Permits' 7.4% June surge was revised up to a 9.2% spike (the biggest since Nov 2015) before July's plunge.

    Housing Recovery False Alarm - Starts, Permits Plunge In July As Rental Units Collapse | Zero Hedge
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  6. #26
    Happycamping Happycamping is offline

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    Speaking of bubbles. Bitcoin?
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  7. #27
    gerhard dengler gerhard dengler is offline
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    Renowned economist Laurence Kotlikoff

    I told them the real (2014) deficit was $5 trillion, not the $500 billion or $300 billion or whatever it was announced to be this year. Almost all the liabilities of the government are being kept off the books by bogus accounting. . . . The government is 58% underfinanced . . . . Social Security is 33% underfinanced . . . . So, the entire government enterprise is in worse fiscal shape than Social Security is, but they are both in terrible shape.” So, how much is America on the hook for in the future? Kotlikoff contends, “If you take all the expenditures that the government is expected to make, as projected by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), all the spending on defense, repairing the roads, paying for the Supreme Court Justices’ salaries, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, welfare, everything and take all those expenditures into the future . . . and compare that to all the taxes that are projected to come in, and the difference is $210 trillion. That’s the fiscal gap. That’s our true debt.”

    It will collapse. It is just a matter of when. I can’t say when, but all I can say it’s going to be too late. . . . We are seeing signs of this in the economy, but we are not picking it up that clearly. The macro economy is not doing all that well.” Kotlikoff goes on to say, “I think our financial system is really built to fail because it combines two things which really haven’t been addressed. . . . It combines leverage, borrowing by the financial middlemen and then investing in things that they don’t tell you they are investing in.
    So, there is opacity and leverage. These are the two major problems for the banking system. What we need to do is get rid of the leverage and get rid of the opacity. We need full disclosure of the investments of our financial institutions.”

    Where can you get a safe investment? Kotlikoff says forget U.S. Treasury bonds. “I think they are one of the riskiest securities in the world because interest rates are likely to go up. I think the Fed is going to have to keep printing money because Congress isn’t paying our bills, and that’s going to lead to inflation eventually. So, I think long term Treasuries are extremely risky, and they can drop 5%, 10% or 20% overnight. That could put my bank that was viewed as perfectly safe today out of business. So we could have inflation take off and interest rates go up. We could have banks fail, and that could lead to runs on other banks. That’s the scenario,” says Professor Kotlikoff.

    Professor Kotlikoff also has a new best-selling book titled “Get What’s Yours: The secrets to maxing out your Social Security.” It is currently the number one seller on Amazon.com. Kotlikoff says many people do not know the rules, and if you don’t it, could cost you tens of thousands of dollars. . . . We have two big problems. Social Security is in terrible shape. We need to fix that. Some people get more out of Social Security because they know the rules. That’s one problem. Problem B is Social Security is 33% under financed. Fixing problem A could make problem B worse. We need to fix problem A and B in the future.”
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  8. #28
    katsung47 katsung47 is offline

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    Goldman Sachs Says That There Is A 99 Percent Chance That Stock Prices Will Not Keep Going Up Like This
    By Michael Snyder, on July 31st, 2017

    – North Korea is threatening to nuke the US
    – Donald Trump is firing his entire cabinet
    – The Federal Reserve has dropped interest rates to record lows and drowned the world in trillions of dollars of cash
    – Debt levels are at record highs
    – Entire banking systems, especially in Europe, are in need of massive bailouts
    – The US government will run out of money in less than 90-days and hit the debt ceiling once again


    Goldman Sachs Says That There Is A 99 Percent Chance That Stock Prices Will Not Keep Going Up Like This
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  9. #29
    randomwalk randomwalk is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by katsung47 View Post
    Goldman Sachs Says That There Is A 99 Percent Chance That Stock Prices Will Not Keep Going Up Like This
    By Michael Snyder, on July 31st, 2017

    – North Korea is threatening to nuke the US
    – Donald Trump is firing his entire cabinet
    – The Federal Reserve has dropped interest rates to record lows and drowned the world in trillions of dollars of cash
    – Debt levels are at record highs
    – Entire banking systems, especially in Europe, are in need of massive bailouts
    – The US government will run out of money in less than 90-days and hit the debt ceiling once again


    Goldman Sachs Says That There Is A 99 Percent Chance That Stock Prices Will Not Keep Going Up Like This
    As stated in the article, the S&P has only traded at a higher valuation twice before (and only once before if you use the Hussman P/E. We are also what 9 years into the current credit cycle so that will have to come to an end soon.

    All that being said, it's hard to know what the catalyst will be. The market seems to go risk off for a few days every time a blimp with trump appears, then gets over it pretty quickly and moves on. And with the nominal and natural interest rates having fallen so low, and growth so brittle, it's hard to see what could be done if we do face another crisis.
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  10. #30
    gleeful gleeful is offline

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    Economists have predicted 10 of the last 3 recessions.
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